Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate with 16 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 8.5)
The Orioles (11-6) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 7-4 as -130 home favorites and then rolling again yesterday 11-3 as -165 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Twins (6-10) hand the ball to righty Pablo Lopez (1-2, 4.86 ERA) and the Orioles counter with righty Albert Suarez, who is making his 2024 debut after going 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 2023. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening the Twins as a slight -115 road favorite. Sharps have pounced on Baltimore at a cheap price, driving the Orioles to a -115 home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “pick’em to favorite” or “dog to favorite” line movement on Baltimore. The Orioles are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and sharp support. The Orioles have a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .259 vs .195 for the Twins. Baltimore has hit 27 homers and scored 100 runs on offense while Minnesota has hit just 15 homers and scored 56 runs. The Orioles have the better pitching staff as well (team ERA 3.77 vs 4.21). Baltimore is 7-4 at home. Minnesota is 5-6 on the road. The Orioles are +25 in run differential. The Twins are -18. Baltimore also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
2:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-140, 9) at Houston Astros
The Braves (11-5) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 6-1 as -115 road favorites and then winning again last night 6-2 as -110 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves start lefty Max Fried (1-0, 8.74 ERA) and the Astros (6-13) rebuttal with righty J.P. France (0-2, 8.22 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 road favorite and Houston a +120 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand and expecting a Braves sweep, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -140. The Braves are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling one-sided support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Road favorites are 56-29 (66%) this season with a 15% ROI. Interleague favorites off a win are 242-148 (62%) since the start of 2023. The Braves have the better bets (hitting .302 vs .269) and betting pitching (team ERA 4.47 vs 5.59). Atlanta has the better bullpen as well (ERA 3.86 vs 5.72). Atlanta is 7-3 on the road. Houston is just 4-8 at home. The Braves are +28 in run differential. The Astros are -22.
7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)
The Guardians (12-5) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-0 as +130 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 10-7 in extra innings as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians start righty Ben Lively, who is making his 2024 debut after going 4-7 with a 5.38 ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (9-9) go with fellow righty Tanner Houck (2-1, 2.04 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -140 home favorite and Cleveland a +120 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen Boston fall from -140 to -130. This signals smart money grabbing the plus money with the Guardians (+120 to +110). Cleveland has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Guardians are 9-2 on the road while the Red Sox are just 2-6 at home. Cleveland is +38 in run differential. Boston is +3. The Red Sox are expected to be without their top hitter Rafael Devers, who injured his knee in yesterday’s game.
