Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)
The Reds (38-35) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-5, taking care of business as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Twins (36-36) hand the ball to righty Bailey Ober (4-3, 4.40 ERA) and the Reds counter with lefty Nick Lodolo (4-5, 3.76 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on Cincinnati at a coin-flip price at home, steaming the Reds up from -110 to -125. Some shops are even up to -130.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is taking in only 45% of monyeline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of another Reds home victory.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record and a line move in their direction are 114-59 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who missed the postseason the previous year playing an opponent who also missed the postseason are 46-24 (66%) with a 7% ROI. If they are also off a win, these teams improve to 28-10 (74%) with a 21% ROI.
Cincinnati has the better bats, hitting .247 with 82 homers and 341 runs scored compared to Minnesota hitting .242 with 76 homers and 300 runs scored. The Reds are hitting .258 against righties (4th best in MLB) and the Twins are only hitting .229 against lefties (20th).
The Reds are 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .270 with a 3.84 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .246 with a 6.38 team ERA.
The Reds are 19-16 at home. The Twins are 16-24 on the road.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-185, 8.5)
The Braves (32-39) won last night’s series opener 5-4 in extra innings, coming through as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets (45-28) turn to righty Paul Blackburn (0-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Braves send out lefty Chris Sale (4-4, 2.79 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -175 home favorite and New York a +145 road dog.
Wiseguys aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Braves, driving Atlanta up from -175 to -185.
At Circa, the Braves are only receiving 15% of moneyline bets but a hefty 77% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of the pro money out in Vegas backing the home team.
Home favorites with line movement in their direction who also made the playoffs the previous season are 154-73 (68%) with an 8% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the postseason are 72-37 (66%) with a 12% ROI.
Home favorites -185 or more who made the playoffs the previous season are 89-28 (76%) with an 8% ROI. Sub .500 favorites -180 or more playing an opponent who made the postseason the previous year are 28-10 (74%) with an 11% ROI since 2021.
The Braves are 11-4 (73%) with a 5% ROI as a home favorite -185 or more.
Sale has a 1.38 ERA in two June starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 13 innings pitched. He has given up one earned run or less in six of his last seven starts.
The Braves are 20-15 at home this season. The Mets are 18-18 on the road.
10:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 9.5)
The Dodgers (45-29) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-3 as -175 home favorites and then winning again last night 8-6 as -225 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres (39-33) tap righty Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.50 ERA) and the Dodgers go with fellow righty Emmet Sheehan, who is making his 2025 debut. Sheehan is returning from Tommy John surgery and last pitched in 2023, going 4-1 with a 4.92 ERA.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -170 home favorite and San Diego a +150 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -170 to -200.
At Circa, the Dodgers are receiving 29% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Dodgers out in Vegas.
Big home favorites -200 or more who made the playoffs the previous season are 74-20 (79%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year playing an opponent who also made the postseason are 72-37 (66%) with a 12% ROI. Home favorites with a line move in their direction who also made the playoffs the previous season are 154-73 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .265 with 115 homers and 413 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .248 with 62 homers and 304 runs scored.
The Dodgers are 27-12 at home. The Padres are 18-21 on the road.
