Tuley’s Takes: MLB Wild Card Best Bets:
The Tuley’s Takes home office is very busy with football season in full swing, but we’re very excited about the MLB playoffs, especially to give us some mid-week fall action and MLB Wild Card best bets.
Regular VSiN readers know I wasn’t doing daily baseball picks like previous seasons and my only MLB piece was on Over/Under season win totals back in March, and I’m happy to report we went 3-1 with easy wins on the Padres Over 82 (they won 93), Dodgers Under 104.5 (they only won 98) and Marlins Under 77.5 (only won 62. My only loss was on the Reds Over 82 (they fell short at 77).
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I had a good but not great season with my daily plays as I stuck with my “dog or pass approach” that I do in all sports and mostly played my “swagger” (the historically bad White Sox even cashed some nice tickets for us at +170 and +200 the games after snapping long losing streaks) and “anti-swagger” plays, which was always nice to hear from longtime readers that they remembered those lessons.
I mostly stuck with First 5 Inning underdogs to shorten the games and mostly concentrate on starting pitchers, but the playoffs are called “the second season” and are a whole different ball game(s), so all that goes out the window as we look to betting the playoffs.
I didn’t have any World Series futures this season, and I’m not playing any now, as no real live longshots jump out at me. Instead, I’ll give my “takes” on the four wild-card series that start Tuesday, and we’ll be back at the start of each round through the World Series to try to map a path to playoff profitability.
Tuley’s Takes on American League Wild Card Series
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Series price: Astros -170/Tigers +15
Game 1 (2:32 p.m. ET): Astros -140/Tigers +130
It’s great to see some new faces this postseason, especially with the Tigers and Royals in the AL. It reminds me of my youth and the heyday of the Royals in the 1970s, with George Brett, Freddie Patek, my distant cousin Paul Splittorff, and the Tigers winning the 1984 World Series with former Cub Willie Hernandez.
This year’s Tigers came from nowhere as they finished the season by going 31-13 (70.5%) in their last 44 games as the hottest team in baseball. That’s kind of hard to ignore and makes them a very live underdog in my mind for both the series price at +150 as well as in individual games, and they’ll be dogs in any game with the Astros having home-field advantage.
We get Detroit’s Tarik Skubal in Game 1 at a very generous +130 (high of +136 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas as of early Monday night) and we’re counting on the Tigers stealing Game 1 and needing just one more win to advance to the ALDS (we’re not a big fan of three-game wild-card series, but still better than the one-and-done version). The word is that Detroit might go with a “bullpen game” if this gets to a decisive Game 3, but that works for me as the ‘pen is one of their strengths.
A lot is being made of the Tigers (and Royals) making the playoffs because they were able to beat up on the record-worst White Sox in the AL Central, but while that certainly helped (and four of the division’s five teams finished above .500), but I don’t think it was that much more of an advantage than the Astros having three teams in the AL West that finished below .500, yet no one is downgrading their postseason bid despite being the wink link of the AL division winners. I like the Tigers as the biggest live dog in this round.
Wild Card Best Bets: Tigers +130 or better in Game 1 and +150 or better to win series
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Series price: Orioles -165/Royals +145
Game 1 (4:08 p.m. ET): Orioles -150/Royals +135
The Royals are another feel-good story, and I love Bobby Witt Jr. as much as the next baseball fan, but I don’t see the Royals as live of a dog as the Tigers. The Royals obviously do a lot of things right, but the O’s O is just too strong with 235 homers, second only to the Yankees. I’m a fan of “small ball” and usually love scrappy dogs that play defense and steal bases to manufacture runs, but just feel the gap is too big here and like the other dogs better (or see Baltimore as less vulnerable of a favorite).
Wild Card Best Bets: Pass
Tuley’s Takes on National League Wild Card Series
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Brewers -130/Mets +110
Game 1 (5:32 p.m. ET): Brewers -135/Mets +125
The Mets got here by virtue of their wild come-from-behind (twice) 8-7 victory in the first game of their makeup doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday’s extended last day of the regular season.
If they had won the nightcap, they woulda earned a trip to face the No. 4-seeded Padres instead of the No. 3-seeded Brewers, who coasted to the NL Central title. But they didn’t have any incentive to complete the sweep, especially since I (and probably they) see this as an easier matchup. We might be wrong, but we don’t think so as I believe we see by the short series price that oddsmakers also see the Mets as live dogs.
Those backing the Brewers probably like that they’ve been able to rest starters and set their rotation while the Mets were life-and-death to qualify for the playoffs and can be seen as unsettled; however, I’ve never let these situations deter me from taking the late-qualifier as they’ve obviously got momentum (and the early-qualifier has to contend with the “rust vs. rest” dynamic).
The Brewers are a good, solid team, but I still prefer the Mets’ starting pitchers (bullpens are a push) and lineup, especially with sluggers Francisco Lindor (clutch go-ahead HR on Monday capped a great season) and Pete Alonso. If the Brewers had Christian Yelich, maybe I’d be passing, but give me the Mets in Game 1 with Luis Severino and the series.
MLB Wild Card Best Bets: Mets +125 in Game 1 and +110 or better (+115 at Circa Sports on Monday night) in the series
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Series price: Padres -170/Braves +150
Game 1 (8:38 p.m. ET): Padres -137/Braves +127
As stated in the intro, the Padres were one of my Over Season Wins bets. I’ve been high on them a few years as they’ve built this team, so I’m reluctant to fade them with the Braves here, even though I feel this is priced a little too high against a team with more recent playoff experience.
Even though I pooh-poohed the idea of downgrading a team sneaking into the playoffs late, the uncertainty around Atlanta starting pitcher Chris Sale (scratched from Monday’s must-win Game 2) puts a cloud over the Braves’ chances as they seem in even more disarray than usual for a team that needed until Game 162 to make the postseason. It comes down to liking my two other (hopefully) live underdogs better in this round.
MLB Wild Card Best Bets: Pass
