VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, September 8
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, September 8, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Wednesday, September 6, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 136-93 record, but for -87.67 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.3%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was actually 8-1 for +4.9 units however, a rare winning week for these high-priced teams.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 128-46 for +30.14 units as of Thursday 9/8. This coming after an 8-2 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +17.3%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 23-4 for +12.64 units.
System Matches: ATLANTA, TORONTO, TEXAS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 63-61 for -73.57 units! This angle was 4-2 last week and again lost –0.45 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -59.3%!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 15-10 (+8.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 303-303 for +71.76 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 7-8 (-1.1 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 205-212 for -38.86 units, an R.O.I. of -9.3%. After a 3-4 result (-1.72 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 79-102 for -25.77 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.2%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA, FADE SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 211-139 for +25.03 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had another profitable week, +2.59 units on a 13-7 performance.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/28 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 219-164 for +13.43 units after a 12-6 (+5.1 units) record the last seven days. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 5-1 week and have now gone 106-69 for +24.41 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.9% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 3+ games – TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE DETROIT, FADE HOUSTON, FADE BALTIMORE
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE NY METS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE DETROIT, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 795-670 (54.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +37.18 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.5%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 402-330 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.42 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.7%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 272-126 (68.4%) for +53.00 units and an R.O.I. of 13.3%!
System Matches: ATLANTA, HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY (+28), OAKLAND (+36)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+66), LA DODGERS (+17), ATLANTA (+24), DETROIT (+17), BALTIMORE (+25), CLEVELAND (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE-TAMPA BAY OVER 7.5 (+0.86), CHI WHITE SOX-DETROIT OVER 8 (+0.57), KANSAS CITY-TORONTO OVER 9 (+0.73)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE-BOSTON UNDER 10 (-0.79)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ARIZONA (73-68) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (76-65)
Trend: Arizona not as good with RHP Zac Gallen on the ROAD (1-6 record in the last 7 ROAD games with him starting)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Chicago profitable bet as HOME ML underdog (12-12 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (34-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) ST LOUIS (61-79) at (954) CINCINNATI (73-69)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (34-58, -33.71 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis not great against LH starters (15-21, -11.77 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (45-39 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (47-38, +16.50 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
(955) MIAMI (72-68) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (77-62)
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against LH starters (10-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (42-41, -12.41 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES tied 5-5 this season
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (85-54) at (958) WASHINGTON (63-77)
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (64-34, +13.55 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (22-21, -11.27 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER multiple ways (55-38 O/U at NIGHT, 27-13 O/U vs. LH starters, 32-26 O/U against NL East/Central)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (29-41, -3.47 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (34-47, -3.72 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(959) PITTSBURGH (65-75) at (960) ATLANTA (91-48)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (48-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against NL East/West (29-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (40-28 O/U at HOME, 52-40 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (65-28, +16.20 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
(961) COLORADO (51-88) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (70-70)
Trend: Colorado better bet against LH starters (19-24, +3.49 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND SECTION BELOW
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (42-37 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (31-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) SEATTLE (79-61) at (964) TAMPA BAY (85-56)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL East/Central (36-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle better and slight OVER at NIGHT (53-38 record at NIGHT / 50-40 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: SEATTLE, OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (47-25, +7.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good against AL West/Central (34-21 record)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(965) CHICAGO-AL (54-86) at (966) DETROIT (64-76)
Trend: Chicago bad as ML underdog (27-60, -23.35 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (33-49-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit slight OVER at NIGHT (39-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit good in divisional games (28-15, +17.04 units)
System Match: DETROIT
(967) KANSAS CITY (44-97) at (968) TORONTO (77-63)
Trend: Kansas City awful at NIGHT (24-63, -30.45 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City not good against LH starters (11-24, -9.00 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL East/West (30-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending Under a couple of ways (20-35 O/U vs AL Central/West, 29-48 O/U at NIGHT, 24-37 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good vs. AL Central/West (35-22 record)
System Match: TORONTO
(969) BALTIMORE (88-51) at (970) BOSTON (72-68)
Trend: Baltimore good in divisional games (26-15, +14.23 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (39-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston trending OVER in divisional games (22-14 O/U)
System Match: BOSTON
(971) OAKLAND (43-97) at (972) TEXAS (76-63)
Trend: Oakland trending OVER vs LH starters (25-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series this season is (TEX 7 – OAK 3)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (41-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas pretty good record at NIGHT (45-41)
System Match: TEXAS
(973) CLEVELAND (67-74) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (65-76)
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (36-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA better against AL Central/East (28-24, +3.00 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not good at NIGHT (41-55, -23.63 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: INTERESTING TREND BELOW
(975) MILWAUKEE (77-62) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (70-70)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (60-40, +15.20 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (43-48, -11.75 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY slight UNDER a couple ways (33-37 O/U at HOME, 16-20 O/U vs NL teams, 36-52 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
(977) SAN DIEGO (66-75) at (978) HOUSTON (80-61)
Trend: San Diego actually pretty good record vs AL teams (21-16)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego better with LHP Blake Snell starting
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Houston not as good at HOME (35-34, -17.54 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(979) NEW YORK-NL (64-75) at (980) MINNESOTA (73-67)
Trend: NYM not great in interleague play (18-25, -12.95 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (14-29, -24.85 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (15-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Thu 9/7-Sun 9/10
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 13-1 (92.9%, +11.6 units) in the last 14 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 82.9%.
System Match: LA ANGELS
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/8-Mon 9/11
Trend: Colorado is 1-13 (7.1%, -11.35 units) in their last 14 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -81.1%.
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. WASHINGTON: 8-17 (32.0%) -17.45 units, ROI: -69.8%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/8 at Minnesota
System Match: FADE NY METS
