VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, September 30
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, September 30, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 140-56 for +16.73 units as of Monday, September 25. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season has fallen recently but remains at +8.5%.
System Matches: ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 328-334 for +70.05 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, OAKLAND,
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 239-243 for -22.71 units, an R.O.I. of -4.71%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 99-117 for -14.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system has fallen to -6.8%. Both of these records took big hits last week with Kansas City winning six straight games and Texas going on a run of its own.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE TORONTO
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 231-160 for +15.43 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 309-286 (51.9%) for +36.59 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.1%.
System Matches: ST LOUIS
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE TORONTO, FADE ATLANTA, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE SEATTLE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 810-690 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +26.75 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.8%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 240-199 (54.7%) for +38.65 units and an R.O.I. of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: ST LOUIS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 70-57 outright (+5.75 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 126-105 run (+45.48 units, ROI: 19.7%).
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (+27), MILWAUKEE (+45), WASHINGTON (+55)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (+15), LA DODGERS (+54), BALTIMORE (+50), NY YANKEES (+46), SAN DIEGO (+45), MINNESOTA (+74)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-MILWAUKEE UNDER 9 (-0.8), TAMPA BAY-TORONTO UNDER 9 (-1.0), HOUSTON-ARIZONA UNDER 9 (-0.9), MINNESOTA-COLORADO UNDER 13.5 (-2.3)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (83-76) at (952) PITTSBURGH (75-85)
Trend: Miami leads season series (4-1)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (23-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at HOME (44-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) CHICAGO-NL (82-78) at (954) MILWAUKEE (91-69)
Trend: Chicago fighting for playoff spot
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago trending OVER in division (27-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Milwaukee not good against LH starters (21-25, -11.43 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER at NIGHT (41-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) PHILADELPHIA (89-70) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (72-86) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Philadelphia has nothing to play for (clinched first wild card)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (37-24, +5.98 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (26-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM better at HOME (40-37 record)
System Match: NY METS
(981) PHILADELPHIA (89-70) at (982) NEW YORK-NL (72-86) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Philadelphia has nothing to play for (clinched first wild card)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (42-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (26-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not great at NIGHT (46-57, -22.33 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
(957) CINCINNATI (82-78) at (958) ST LOUIS (69-91)
Trend: Cincinnati fighting for playoff spot
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good on the ROAD (44-35, +18.12 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (41-66, -32.11 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (41-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) WASHINGTON (70-90) at (960) ATLANTA (103-57)
Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (36-43, +19.02 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not great at NIGHT (38-58, -0.89 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Atlanta leads season series (7-4 record)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (47-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-61) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (78-82)
Trend: LAD trending OVER on the ROAD (50-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (75-40, +13.04 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (37-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco good at HOME (44-35 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
(963) CLEVELAND (76-84) at (964) DETROIT (76-84)
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER against RH starters (42-59 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit trending OVER at HOME (42-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit better during the DAY (36-34, +8.54 units)
System Match: DETROIT
(965) TAMPA BAY (97-63) at (966) TORONTO (89-71)
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (23-11, +7.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (34-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good during the DAY (39-25, +3.92 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto good record vs RH starters (69-57)
System Match: TORONTO
(967) BOSTON (77-83) at (968) BALTIMORE (100-60)
Trend: Boston trending OVER on the ROAD (42-35 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston bad against RH starters (53-65, -20.29 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (66-39, +24.76 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore already clinched number one seed
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
(969) NEW YORK-AL (81-79) at (970) KANSAS CITY (55-105)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (51-53, -9.14 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER on the ROAD (33-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Kansas City trending OVER at HOME (42-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) OAKLAND (49-111) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (72-88)
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division (20-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland slightly better at NIGHT (35-60, -1.96 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: LAA bad at HOME (37-42, -16.12 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER at NIGHT (55-47 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(973) TEXAS (89-71) at (974) SEATTLE (87-73)
Trend: Texas dominating season series (8-3 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (54-44 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle more OVER at NIGHT (58-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good record at HOME (44-35)
System Match: SEATTLE
(975) SAN DIEGO (80-80) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (61-99)
Trend: San Diego bad against RH starters (52-61, -31.10 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego good against AL teams (26-18, +1.48 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Chicago not good at HOME (31-48, -18.43 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago slight UNDER at NIGHT (43-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(977) HOUSTON (88-72) at (978) ARIZONA (84-76)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (49-30, +14.15 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston fighting for playoff spot
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (59-48 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona more UNDER at HOME (32-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(979) MINNESOTA (86-74) at (980) COLORADO (58-102)
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (18-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER at NIGHT (46-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado not great record against AL teams (17-27, -2.41 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
