VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, October 8
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, October 8, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks this season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.”
System Matches: HOUSTON
Trends & Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to ’00 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 88-103 SU (-46.80 units, ROI: -24.5%)
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE HOUSTON
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 14-10 SU (1.92 units, ROI: 8%) and 16-8 on run lines (11.7 units, ROI: 48.8%) in their last 24 tries.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 60-35 SU (21.85 units, ROI: 23%) and 52-43 on run lines (17.57 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2013.
System Matches: HOUSTON
HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 33-33 SU (-17.03 units, ROI: -25.8%) since ’13.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 39-42 SU (-19.88 units, ROI: -24.5%) and 28-53 on run lines (-15.55 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2012.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 22-43 SU (-14.26 units, ROI: -21.9%) since 2016.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 101 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-55 SU (-30.93 units, ROI: -30.6%) since 2019.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 15-22 SU (-16.08 units, ROI: -43.5%) and 12-25 on run lines (-14.6 units, ROI: -39.5%) in playoff games.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 33-25 SU (14.48 units, ROI: 25%) and 38-20 on run lines (13.18 units, ROI: 22.7%) in playoff games.
System Matches: MINNESOTA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been significant in the divisional round since 2017, as hosts are on a surge of 53-33 SU (9.82 units, ROI: 11.4%) and 49-37 on run lines (18.26 units, ROI: 21.2%) in that span.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host has been trailing or was even in the series. Those teams are on a surge of 18-8 SU (5.57 units, ROI: 21.4%) and 18-8 on run lines (13.11 units, ROI: 50.4%).
System Matches: BALTIMORE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 166-83 (+18.20 units, ROI: 7.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: HOUSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 148-93 in their last 241 tries (+27.37 units, ROI: 11.4%).
System Matches: HOUSTON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (14 points or more) according to the Makinene Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS-BALTIMORE OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA-HOUSTON UNDER 8 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(909) TEXAS (93-72) at (910) BALTIMORE (101-62)
Trend: Texas slight OVER vs AL East/Central (35-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (38-24, +6.99 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Baltimore slight UNDER at HOME (34-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore is 11-6 all-time in ALDS games
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good vs. LH starters (36-18, +14.95 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES this season (TEX 4 – BAL 3)
(911) MINNESOTA (89-76) at (912) HOUSTON (91-72)
Trend: Minnesota slight OVER at NIGHT (51-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota leading season series (4-3 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Houston is used to postseason play (made it to ALCS or WS every year since 2017)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston is just 1-4 with LHP Framber Valdez at HOME in his last five games
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston not as good at HOME (40-42, -32.09 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
