VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, September 28
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, September 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): MIAMI, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, ARIZONA
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 24, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 164-104 record, but for -86.8 units. This is an R.O.I. of -32.4%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE PHILADELPHIA,
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 140-56 for +16.73 units as of Monday, September 25. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season has fallen recently but remains at +8.5%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA,
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 328-334 for +70.05 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: NY YANKEES
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 231-160 for +15.43 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS, FADE BOSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE BALTIMORE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 808-687 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.95 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.9%.
System Matches: TORONTO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 69-56 outright (+5.75 units, ROI: 4.6%).
System Matches: BOSTON
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 126-104 run (+46.48 units, ROI: 20.2%).
System Matches: BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 166-81 (+20.70 units, ROI: 8.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 148-92 in their last 240 tries (+28.87 units, ROI: 12%).
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 52-53 (-22.40 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT (+34)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (+17), LA DODGERS (+65), BALTIMORE (+37), ARIZONA (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-NY METS OVER 7.5 (+0.63), LA DODGERS-COLORADO OVER 11.5 (+0.76), KANSAS CITY-DETROIT OVER 7 (+1.38), BOSTON-BALTIMORE OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ST LOUIS (69-89) at (952) MILWAUKEE (89-69)
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (28-24 record)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (34-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee good with RHP Corbin Burnes at HOME (won 4 of L5)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good at HOME (46-31 record)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(953) PITTSBURGH (74-84) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (89-69)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (58-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh not as good on the ROAD (36-44 record)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (37-26 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good with RHP Zach Wheeler at HOME (won 7 of L9)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(955) MIAMI (82-76) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (72-86)
Trend: Miami slight UNDER on the ROAD (34-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami not as good at NIGHT (44-46, -5.25 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: NYM terrible against LH starters (16-34, -28.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM heavy UNDER at NIGHT (38-59 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(957) CHICAGO-NL (82-76) at (958) ATLANTA (102-56)
Trend: Chicago heavy UNDER against NL East/West (24-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (73-35, +10.08 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against RH starters (69-54 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against NL Central/West (41-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (98-60) at (960) COLORADO (57-101)
Trend: LAD better at NIGHT (74-39, +14.22 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD heavy OVER on the ROAD (49-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Colorado is 2-10 against LAD this season
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER against LH starters (18-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) OAKLAND (48-110) at (962) MINNESOTA (85-73)
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (40-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland terrible during the DAY (13-51, -31.48 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Minnesota good at HOME (47-33 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER against RH starters (62-55 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) KANSAS CITY (54-103) at (964) DETROIT (74-83)
Trend: Kansas City good with LHP Cole Ragans starting (won 5 of L7)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City trending UNDER during the DAY (24-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit leads season series (8-3 record)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending OVER against LH starters (23-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) BOSTON (76-82) at (966) BALTIMORE (99-59)
Trend: Boston trending OVER on the ROAD (42-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not great against RH starters (53-64, -19.29 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against LH starters (29-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Baltimore fighting for playoff seeding/win number 100
System Match: BALTIMORE
(967) NEW YORK-AL (81-77) at (968) TORONTO (87-71)
Trend: ROAD team is 9-3 in season series
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (28-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto decent record against RH starters (67-57)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(969) TEXAS (89-69) at (970) SEATTLE (85-73)
Trend: Texas dominating season series (8-1 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (54-43 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle more OVER at NIGHT (58-44 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good record at HOME (42-35)
System Match: SEATTLE
(971) ARIZONA (84-74) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (60-98)
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER in interleague play (16-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona fighting for playoff spot (CWS are not)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Chicago bad in interleague play (14-28, -11.56 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (38-58 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Tue 9/26-Thu 9/28
Trend: FAVORITES are just 14-28 (34.1%, -25.73 units) in the last 42 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
The R.O.I. on this trend is -61.3%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
TEXAS
LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-21 (22.2%) -14.43 units, ROI: -53.4%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 9/28 at Seattle
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
