VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, October 11
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 11, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: HOUSTON
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 4-games – FADE ARIZONA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-11 SU skid (-8.5 units, ROI: -53.1%)
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 89-105 SU (-48.45 units, ROI: -25%)
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE PHILADELPHIA
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 15-12 SU (0.15 units, ROI: 0.6%) and 16-11 on run lines (7.85 units, ROI: 29.1%) in their L27 tries.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 61-36 SU (21.50 units, ROI: 22.2%) and 53-44 on run lines (17.93 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2013.
System Matches: ARIZONA
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 73-54 SU (-0.85 units, ROI: -0.1%) and 67-60 on run lines (17.26 units, ROI: 13.6%) since ’15.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 34-35 SU (-18.80 units, ROI: -27.2%) since ’13.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-44 SU (-21.65 units, ROI: -25.8%) and 28-56 on run lines (-19.40 units, ROI: -23.1%) since 2012.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE LA DODGERS
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 19-25 SU (-9.04 units, ROI: -20.5%) and 18-26 on run lines (-10.62 units, ROI: -24.1%) skid since ’19.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 24-45 SU (-16.12 units, ROI: -23.4%) since 2016.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE HOUSTON
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 105 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 47-58 SU (-33.70 units, ROI: -32.1%) since 2019.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-25 SU (-18.85 units, ROI: -46%) and 12-29 on run lines (-20.07 units, ROI: -49%) in playoff games.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 35-26 SU (15.68 units, ROI: 25.7%) and 40-21 on run lines (14.18 units, ROI: 23.2%) in playoff games.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been significant in the divisional round since 2017, as hosts are on a surge of 55-37 SU (6.40 units, ROI: 7%) and 50-42 on run lines (13.77 units, ROI: 15%) in that span.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host has been trailing or was even in the series. Those teams are on a surge of 19-11 SU (2.50 units, ROI: 8.3%) and 18-12 on run lines (8.26 units, ROI: 27.5%).
System Matches: MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 35-23 SU (15.21 units, ROI: 26.2%).
System Matches: HOUSTON
Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 29-17 SU (+12.7 units, ROI: 27.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 26-18 (+6.25 units, ROI: 14.2%)
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, also PLAY UNDER in ATL-PHI
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 311-286 (52.1%) for +39.03 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 813-693 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +26.28 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.7%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (13 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -148 (+13 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(931) ATLANTA (105-59) at (932) PHILADELPHIA (93-73)
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER on the ROAD (44-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (76-37, +8.25 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta used to playoffs, have revenge on the mind (lost to Philadelphia in NLDS last year)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (44-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at HOME this season against Atlanta (1-5 record)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good with RHP Aaron Nola starting (9-1 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(933) HOUSTON (92-73) at (934) MINNESOTA (90-77)
Trend: Houston is used to postseason play (made it to ALCS or WS every year since 2017)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston more OVER at NIGHT (60-49 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston slight OVER against AL Central/East (37-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (52-30, +17.25 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Minnesota good at HOME (49-35 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER at NIGHT (52-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota leading season series (5-4 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
(937) LOS ANGELES-NL (100-64) at (938) ARIZONA (88-78)
Trend: LAD trending OVER on the ROAD (50-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (75-43, +7.64 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (32-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (56-47, +10.71 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is tied at Arizona (3-3 record this season)
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
