VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, October 18
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: HOUSTON
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE TEXAS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-108 SU (-51.34 units, ROI: -25.9%)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-36 SU (25.00 units, ROI: 25%) and 56-44 on run lines (21.23 units, ROI: 21.2%) since 2013.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
Stats from last game trends
Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 11-35 SU (-20.80 units, ROI: -45.2%) and 15-31 on run lines (-30.75 units, ROI: -66.8%) in the follow-up game since ’09.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 25-46 SU (-16.10 units, ROI: -22.7%) since 2016.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 30-29 (+9.75 units, ROI: 16.5%) since 2018.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON
Road teams in LCS Game 3s that are down 0-2 in the series have lost all five tries since ’06 (-5.05 units, ROI: -101%), scoring four total runs.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 166-84 (+16.85 units, ROI: 6.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -130 (+4 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON-TEXAS UNDER 9 (-0.5 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) HOUSTON (93-75) at (902) TEXAS (97-72)
Trend: Houston is leading season series (9-6 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: 7 of the last nine games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston much better on the ROAD (53-30, +18.27 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (60-51 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: RHP Cristian Javier gave up eight ER in 4.1 IP in his only start vs. Texas this season
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Texas dominant at HOME (51-31, +5.96 units / also 1-0 this postseason)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas has a 10-4 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: RHP Max Scherzer gave up seven ER in 3.0 IP in his last start vs. Houston (9/6/2023)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
