Washington Nationals 2024 preview
A flag will forever fly at Nationals Park to represent the 2019 World Series championship. It might be the only solace that Washington Nationals fans have had over the last four seasons. The world shut down five months after the Nats erased a 3-2 series deficit to win back-to-back games in Houston and win the first title in franchise history, so running it back really wasn’t an option.
The 2020 team didn’t look to be built quite like the 2019 team anyway, as Stephen Strasburg paid the price for being an October warrior and Anthony Rendon changed coasts. Before COVID postponed the MLB season in mid-March, the reigning champs were 16/1 to repeat as of March 1 per Sports Odds History.
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That team would go 26-34 in the weird COVID year, setting up a string of last-place seasons. In the three full seasons since, the Nationals have won 65, 55, and 71 games, finishing 23.5, 46, and 33 games behind the division champion Braves. It has been a long and slow process of tearing down and rebuilding.
However, last season provided a little light at the end of the tunnel. The Nats went 35-37 in the second half after starting the year 36-54 over their first 90 games. Playing around a .500 clip for a sustained period of time was not something that happened since the first half of the 2021 season and the Nationals actually went 8-18 in September to wipe out a really good six-week period after the All-Star Break.
It does look to be another long year, and potentially another last-place campaign, for the team.
2024 Washington Nationals Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 21)
World Series: +25000
NL Pennant: +12000
NL East: +10000
Win Total: 65.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +1800 / No -5000
Washington Nationals Preview: Offense
It is not enjoyable to be a fan of a rebuilding team. The Nationals have gone through a long one, as they had to shed salary and renovate their minor league system. It is still fair to wonder how many true impact players there still are on the horizon. But, the ones with that kind of upside are on their way.
Let’s talk about the MLB roster first and then look at the guys that are going to be up at some point over the summer. Last year’s Nats crew posted a 92 wRC+, which ranked 23rd. They were actually 12th in batting average and had the lowest K% in baseball, but power production was non-existent. Only the Guardians hit fewer homers than the Nationals and their power outage was well-documented as the season went along. Washington hit 151 homers and ranked 21st in runs with 700.
The absence of power is really hard to overcome. The top five teams in runs scored all hit at least 222 home runs. The Nationals were able to generate some offense elsewhere, including 127 stolen bases. However, they also had the league’s third-lowest BB% at 7.0%. Teams without feared hitters don’t walk and teams that make contact for the sake of making contact generally don’t work out as well as you would think.
The problem with just going up there to make contact is that you often don’t make quality contact. The Nationals were 28th in Hard Hit% and 29th in Barrel%. Their Hard Hit% was mere percentage points better than the A’s and only clearly better than the Guardians. So, it’s great that the Nationals didn’t strike out and hit for a pretty high average, but they just didn’t have enough good hitters.
Their best hitter by wRC+, Jeimer Candelario, was traded in July. Their next best hitter by wRC+ was the backup catcher, Riley Adams. In total, among guys with more than 33 plate appearances, the Nationals had five guys that posted a wRC+ above 96. Remember, 100 represents a league average hitter. This was not a good offensive ballclub and most of the guys returning are not good offensive players.
One of them, Stone Garrett, suffered a gruesome leg injury and is just working his way back, but he’s 28 years old with 116 MLB games and 355 MLB PA to his name. Another one is Victor Robles, who was one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2021 and 2022, so color me skeptical on that one.
In hopes of injecting some life into the offense, the Nationals went out and got Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario on minor league deals with non-roster invites. They signed Joey Gallo and Nick Senzel. These are guys looking to recoup some lost value and the Nationals are looking to parlay them into prospects when the Trade Deadline rolls around. I think it’s a really sharp move from the front office while waiting on guys like James Wood, Robert Hassell, Brady House, and Dylan Crews.
Wood and Crews are both top-10 prospects per FanGraphs and House is a top-100 guy. The 21-year-old Wood actually put on a show in Spring Training with some impressive power. He’s a three true outcomes guy, so when he makes The Show, he’s going to hit some absolute tanks, but also strike out and walk a lot. He was one of the centerpieces of the Juan Soto deal with the Padres. Crews, meanwhile, was Washington’s first-round pick out of LSU at No. 2 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. House is another guy who makes violent contact, but he can’t legally buy a beer until June and he has a longer development path to the bigs as a high school draft pick in 2021.
So, excitement is coming. It’s just not here yet. What I will say is that it’s important to know a tema’s situation and what it has in the minor leagues for win total markets. While the Nationals look like another bottom-five lineup right now, they may not be by June or July. Year-long markets don’t account for that in March.
Washington Nationals Preview: Pitching
I like to try and ease the pain for fans of rebuilding teams by talking about how it’s about individual development with these throwaway seasons. That remains true, especially in the case of the Nationals and their pitching staff. They finished 27th in ERA and 29th in FIP last season, but there were some bright spots amidst all the bad performances.
Guys who are not part of the future struggled badly. Patrick Corbin’s contract ends after this season. He had a 5.20 ERA with a 5.28 FIP with a team-high 32 starts and a team-high 180 innings. Trevor Williams was also a punching bag with a 5.55 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in 144.1 innings over 30 starts. Neither one of these guys will be on the team after this season. They’re sacrificial lambs right now, out there in hopes of gobbling innings so prospects don’t have to be rushed.
There were a few good things from guys who are part of the future. Don’t get me wrong, there were bad things, too. Josiah Gray had a 3.91 ERA, but his peripherals painted a much uglier picture with a 5.03 xERA and a 4.93 FIP. Those numbers were better than what he posted in 2022 with a 5.02 ERA and a 5.86 FIP, so at least there’s that. The Nationals really need Gray to be a hit and this is a big year for him. He has to make a leap. Last season, his K% was lower, his BB% was higher, and he wore down at times. I don’t know how high the ceiling may be, but he needs to be at least a league average type of dude at some point.
We also saw flashes from MacKenzie Gore. He cut his walk rate down, but the more strikes meant more contact and he allowed a 12.1% Barrel% and 27 homers in 136.1 innings. He only allowed seven homers in 70 innings in 2022, although that was as a member of the Padres and Petco Park is the ultimate safety net. He still has big-time upside because of the strikeout rate, but he has to improve his pitch efficiency and keep the ball in the park.
Jake Irvin learned on the job over 121 innings with a 4.61 ERA and a 5.30 FIP. Again, he was a well below average starter, but he had a few promising outings. That was supposed to be Cade Cavalli’s spot, but he had to have Tommy John surgery in March. He may be back in August and he’s got more upside than most of the Nationals prospects, including the ones already at the MLB level. But, he’s got major injury risk attached to him.
I will say that I kind of expected to be more impressed with what guys like Gray and Gore did last season in evaluating their performances, but I’m really not. It’s hard to see much of anything changing with this pitching staff for 2024 unless Gray and Gore do make some strides. I think the plan here is to wait for the position player prospects to graduate to the big leagues and then look to spend free agent dollars on starting pitchers for 2025 and beyond.
To add insult to injury, the bullpen was 27th in ERA and 30th in FIP last season as well. Like they did on the lineup side, the Nationals signed Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and Derek Law in hopes of spinning them for some prospects in July. I will say that failed starter Hunter Harvey was a big surprise in relief last season with a 2.82 ERA and 3.29 FIP over 60.2 innings.
Washington Nationals Player to Watch
SP MacKenzie Gore
It feels like the tools are there for Gore. He has 94th percentile Extension, which is great for a 6-foot-2 pitcher. It makes his 95 mph fastball appear faster and gets up on hitters quickly, especially if he can put it up in the zone. He generates swings and misses. He also issues walks and allows a lot of hard contact. Hitters will get to velocity, though, as evidenced by the 17 homers he allowed on fastballs.
Gore’s spin rates on his secondaries aren’t very high, but he does generate good Whiff% marks on those pitches. Smarter people than me should be able to optimize his arsenal, but I’m not sure a 60%-ish fastball rate is a viable means of getting people out without elite command. And Gore does not have elite command. The under-the-hood metrics on the fastball are good, but everything else is lacking. Plus, there are some health risks attached here, too. This is a big year for him and the Nationals because he needs to show signs of being a building block in an area where they will have to spend regardless.
Washington Nationals Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
When I saw Washington’s win total number and compared it to what they did in the second half, I was convinced I’d be a buyer in the Over. I’m also lower on teams like the Mets and Marlins, which could help the Nationals with 26 head-to-head meetings. But, once I dug into the roster, I couldn’t get there.
I am confident that the Nationals will be a better team later in the year as their prospects make it to the bigs and have an impact. They’re still going to have a multitude of issues with the rotation and there aren’t any big prospects knocking on the door. Cavalli is the biggest and Tommy John timelines are hardly linear.
I do think Nationals fans will get some excitement over the summer and as fall approaches, but this will be another long year in a string of them. The best-case scenario is that Wood, Crews, and House all debut and the team is ready to buy starting pitcher innings next offseason.
Slight Lean: Over 65.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
