World Series MVP
Betting on the World Series MVP has some similarities to betting on the Super Bowl MVP. In the minds of many, it is a potentially more lucrative way to take a team to win the series, just like we look at the starting quarterbacks of the Super Bowl as better prices than the moneyline. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would typically have to shine for their respective teams to win the championship, much like we could say about Dodgers two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani and Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Dodgers are -215 for the series and the Blue Jays are +180, so if you pick the MVP, you’re clearly getting a better price.
Also, much like the Super Bowl MVP, only once has the World Series MVP award went to a player on the losing team. That was Bobby Richardson for the 1960 Yankees, who lost to the Pirates in seven games. Ironically, Mickey Mantle had a better series than Robinson, but Richardson’s performance was a lot more surprising. The Yankees scored 55 runs in that series to Pittsburgh’s 27, but the Pirates won the series.
It seems extremely unlikely that we get a similar situation here, so you’ll want to look for the World Series MVP from the team that you think will win the series. (Here’s who I think will win the World Series)
Where the Super Bowl MVP and World Series MVP greatly differ is that this award has a far, far wider range of player possibilities. The NFL award goes to a quarterback at an extreme rate. With World Series MVP winners, it has been all over the map over the years. Usually it is one of the team’s more recognizable hitters, but that isn’t always the case.
Here are some notes about recent winners so you can cut down the list a little bit:
Batter Up: The last pitcher to win World Series MVP was Stephen Strasburg in 2019; Madison Bumgarner (2014) is the only other pitcher since Cole Hamels in 2008
Batting average matters: Corey Seager in 2023 (.286) is the only hitter since 1982 to bat under .300 and win World Series MVP (Seager led all hitters with 3 HR and only two Rangers (Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia) hit .300 or better)
Home runs, and big home runs, matter too: Freddie Freeman (2024) hit the game-winning grand slam in Game 1 (and hit three more HR in the series); Seager (2023) tied Game 1 in the ninth with a HR; Jeremy Pena (2022) hit a go-ahead HR in Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2; Jorge Soler (2021) hit three go-ahead HR
What’s In A Name?: It doesn’t have to be a big name or the biggest name on the team, but it will likely be a recognizable name – Steve Pearce (2018) won the MVP with the Red Sox; Pena was fifth in fWAR among position players on the 2022 Astros who had Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker; similarly, George Springer (2017) won on an Astros team with Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Bregman; Ben Zobrist (2016) won for the Cubs with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the team
Using the above criteria, we can focus on non-pitchers and hitters with power or high contact rates. Strikeouts limit the potential to get hits and batting average does matter to the voters. Walks, as crazy as it is to say, are kind of detrimental here, too.
Another element to the process – fan voting counts for 20% of the vote. The other 80% comes from broadcast rights holders FOX, ESPN Radio, and MLB International, plus the BBWAA.
Ohtani had a terrible World Series showing last year, batting just .105/.227/.158, so the fan vote couldn’t even carry a lot of weight for him, plus he didn’t pitch last season. Freeman was also a very, very obvious choice.
With that, let’s look at what I believe to be the best bet and best long shot bet for each team in the World Series, excluding the favorites in Ohtani and Guerrero. All odds from DraftKings (as of 10/23, 1:30 p.m. PT).
World Series MVP Odds 2025
- Shohei Ohtani +160
- Vladimir Guerrero +600
- George Springer +1100
- Freddie Freeman +1400
- Mookie Betts +1500
- Teoscar Hernandez +1800
- Blake Snell +1900
- Bo Bichette +2500
- Max Muncy +2500
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto +2800
- Daulton Varsho +3000
- Will Smith +3000
- Alejandro Kirk +3000
- Tommy Edman +4000
- Trey Yesavage +5000
- Enrique Hernandez +5500
- Ernie Clement +5500
- Andy Pages +5500
- Tyler Glasnow +6000
- Kevin Gausman +6000
- Shane Bieber +6500
- Nathan Lukes +7500
- Andres Gimenez +7500
- Addison Barger +7500
- Max Scherzer +20000
- Jeff Hoffman +20000
- Clayton Kershaw +30000
- Chris Bassitt +30000
- Miguel Rojas +30000
- Michael Conforto +30000
Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddie Freeman +1400
Hardly going out on a limb here with the reigning World Series MVP. I will say that it does concern me a bit that Trey Yesavage and Kevin Gausman are both better against lefties because of their splitters, but Mookie Betts has lost bat speed and exit velocity this season and Teoscar Hernandez strikes out a decent amount, so there aren’t strong right-handed candidates. It is a very, very small sample size, but Freeman had a .529 BA with a 1.000 SLG on at bats that ended with a splitter from a right-handed pitcher.
Freeman was second to Jarren Duran in Batting Runs against splitters. He was also an above average hitter on fastballs, sliders, and curveballs, and he was a top-20 hitter by wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Ohtani was No. 2, for what it’s worth, but I’m looking outside of the favorite.
Freeman also hit better away from Dodger Stadium (145 wRC+ vs. 133 wRC+) and hit 15 of his 24 homers on the road.
Will Smith +3000
The one long shot I would consider for the Dodgers is catcher Will Smith. He had a career year against righties batting .309/.410/.513 this season. My only worry about him is that over 35% of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout or walk. But, Smith increased both his Hard Hit% and Barrel% this season year over year, including the highest average exit velocity of his career.
Smith was limited to 110 games and 362 plate appearances, but still hit 17 homers, so he has the power potential to be a major contributor in this series. Trey Yesavage has pitched at five different levels this season and lefties collectively had a .136/.238/.216 slash with a 95/28 K/BB ratio in the regular season. Lefties have posted a wOBA above .300 once (2023) against Kevin Gausman since 2019. So, Smith, a right-handed hitter, could be productive.
The only catcher in the last 30 years to win World Series MVP was Salvador Perez in 2015 for the Royals. Before that, you have to go back to Toronto’s Pat Borders in 1992.
Toronto Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho +3000
Varsho has the chance to make some highlight-reel plays in the outfield and it’s never a bad thing to be remembered for that, but he also had a really good second half and has the right type of offensive skills and bat path to win this type of award. He hit 20 homers in just 271 plate appearances and 71 games this season, as the offensive breakout was well underway, but injury stunted his season.
Varsho had a 15.9% Barrel% and a 40.3% Hard Hit%. For the second straight season, Varsho was good against changeups, which are often pitches that righties use to neutralize the platoon split. He was also an above average hitter against splitters, relevant against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and closer Roki Sasaki. He hit 18 of his 20 HR against RHP, but was buoyed by a .231 BABIP. In 44 second-half games, Varsho slashed .256/.310/.551 with a .362 wOBA and a 134 wRC+. The batting average part will be tough for him, but the power part is something he can provide.
Varsho actually wasn’t a great hitter against fastballs, but was very good against offspeed stuff with a .318 BA and a .955 SLG, so we’ll see how the Dodgers attack him, as they haven’t thrown a lot of heaters this postseason.
Addison Barger +7500
Barger might be experiencing some of the positive regression he was due during the season. The left-handed-hitting third baseman/right fielder had a .243 BA with a .268 xBA and a .454 SLG with a .477 xSLG. Some bad luck absolutely crept into the equation, but he is a guy that makes very violent contact. He had a 57.7% Hard Hit% in 26 batted ball events in Triple-A and a 50.9% Hard Hit% in 342 batted ball events at the MLB level with an 11.4% Barrel%.
Barger’s regular season HR/FB% was 15.7% and it’s 18.2% here in the postseason. He pulls the ball at an extreme rate and is a much better hitter against righties than lefties. So, the Blake Snell game could be tricky, but he could be very good the rest of the way. Barger is one of those Blue Jays success stories in terms of bat speed, as his ranks in the 93rd percentile. He also has one of the strongest arms in baseball, so his plays at 3B or in RF could open some eyes.
The Dodgers haven’t been attacking much with fastballs this postseason, which is actually good for Barger, who was -5.7 Batting Runs against four-seamers. He was +4.8 Batting Runs against splitters and a slightly plus hitter against changeups. Similar to Varsho, he only hit .245 with a .438 SLG against fastballs, but posted a .553 SLG against offspeed pitches.
