Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I closed last week strong, going 2-0 on Saturday’s best bets then following it up with another 2-0 performance on Sunday. I’ll admit it’s easy to get sucked into the football vortex that is fast approaching, but I will do my best to stay focused and keep the winning streak alive. If anything, the more attention NFL and college football markets get, the less attention a YRFI and NRFI market might get on a daily basis. There’s probably not much correlation there, but my best advice to bettors getting ready to juggle two major sports is to just keep repeating your process every day to the best of your ability and enjoy the wagering equinox about to occur.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, August 4th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 42-36 (53.8%) +0.94u +0.6% ROI
Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers
Jesus Luzardo has posted an impressive 20-2 NRFI record this season with elite data to back it up. The lefty has allowed just a .145 batting average against and has not allowed a home run all season in the first inning. The Rangers’ offense seems to be slowly coming back to life, but they are still just 19th in wRC+ vs LHP since July 1st, and that mark drops to 23rd in the first inning, so they can be susceptible to southpaws.
Jordan Montgomery posted a 14-7 NRFI record with the Cardinals and will be making his first start since being traded to Texas. It didn’t surprise me that Max Scherzer struggled in his opening frame with the Rangers yesterday as he has a tendency to get over-amped for big starts. I think Montgomery’s debut in Texas will go smoother as it did for Jack Flaherty with the Orioles and Michael Lorenzen with the Phillies, who both got through the first inning with their new team unscathed. The Marlins lineup is low-hanging fruit, as they have scored an early run in only 15% of their road games (8-for-52) which is the second-lowest rate in the league.
I was able to find plenty of -110 for this bet in the overnight market and even a rogue -105. I would comfortably play this bet up to -115 which was the price available on DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Jesus Luzardo vs.:
Marcus Semien (never faced)
Corey Seager (0-for-2, K, BB)
Nathaniel Lowe (never faced)
Adolis Garcia (0-for-2, K)
Jordan Montgomery vs.:
Luis Arraez (1-for-2)
Jorge Soler (0-for-9, 5 Ks, BB)
Josh Bell (2-for-3, 2B, K)
Jake Burger (1-for-2, HR, BB)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-115)
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright is in the first percentile of several major categories including xBA, xSLG, K%, xERA/xwOBA, Whiff%, and fastball velocity. Yikes. It’s fair to say he is currently the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. His 7-6 NRFI record and .368 batting average against in the first inning backs up that claim, and the YRFI is almost an auto bet every time he takes the mound, which might be often down the stretch considering the Cardinals are out of it and they just traded away their two best starters.
What a strange trip it’s been for Chris Flexen in 2023. He started the year in Seattle making 17 appearances (four starts) for the Mariners with a 7.71 ERA. Those results got him designated for assignment, and later traded to the Mets. However, he did not appear in a game for New York but instead was immediately designated for assignment again and subsequently released. The Rockies then scooped him up in early July. Since then, he’s made five starts with Colorado and has posted a 3-2 NRFI record with mediocre data. There’s definitely a reason Flexen was released by two teams already this season. Say what you want about how disappointing the Cardinals are, they can still hit. St. Louis has posted a 40% scoring rate at home in the first inning this season (22-for-55) which is the fifth-highest rate in the league.
I was able to find a -120 in the overnight market, which is a very favorable number for this bet and probably makes it worth an extra half unit or so. I would comfortably play this up to -140 and maybe even the -145 that was available on DraftKings at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Chris Flexen vs.:
Lars Nootbaar (2-for-3, HR)
Paul Goldschmidt (2-for-9, 2 Ks, BB)
Nolan Gorman (2-for-3, HR, K)
Nolan Arenado (1-for-5, K)
Adam Wainwright vs.:
Jurickson Profar (1-for-10, HR, 4 Ks, BB)
Ezequiel Tovar (never faced)
Ryan McMahon (3-for-10)
Elias Diaz (3-for-12, 2 2Bs, K)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-145)
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