Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I bounced back nicely on Saturday going 2-0, evening my record at 2-2 for the week. The Marlins lineup continued to struggle early as their NRFI improved to 62-32 (66%) on the season. But the most exciting result of the day was the YRFI cashing on the first pitch of the game in Cincinnati thanks to a leadoff home run by Christian Yelich. I dare anyone to find a more exciting and efficient way to win a wager.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, July 16th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line.
Season Record: 35-29 (54.7%) +0.49u +0.4% ROI
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds haven’t scored since before the All-Star break. Let that sink in for a moment. Cincinnati has now gone 21 consecutive innings without scoring a run, as they were also shut out in the final game heading into the break, also by the Brewers. It’s best not to overreact to such a small sample, but it’s still unsettling nonetheless for anyone who has been drinking the Reds Kool-Aid. Thankfully they will face Adrian Houser on Sunday, who is just 6-3 to the NRFI this season with an xFIP of nearly 6.00 and .361 batting average against in the first inning.
Ben Lively will start for the Reds, and as detailed in last Sunday’s column, his stuff does not exactly live up to the namesake. Lively has posted a subpar 3-5 NRFI record this season with dismal data across the board. That being said, we needed a two-out RBI from Jesse Winker to bail out the YRFI after Christian Yelich led off the first inning with a double. Ironically that was the only run Lively gave up as he pitched into the sixth inning of an eventual 1-0 Brewers win. That game also started the Reds’ current scoring drought. I like both teams’ chances of breaking out at the plate early.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Adrian Houser vs.:
TJ Friedl (3-for-8)
Matt McLain (2-for-3, K)
Jonathan India (2-for-14, 3 Ks, 4 BBs)
Ben Lively vs.:
Christian Yelich (3-for-9, K, BB)
William Contreras (1-for-3)
Willy Adames (0-for-3)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-160)
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
This matchup features two of the better young pitchers in MLB this season. Reese Olson and Bryce Miller are a combined 13-3 to the NRFI through their first 16 career starts. The data also pops across the board. Olson is allowing just a .118 batting average against in the first inning while Miller has posted a 2.04 xFIP and has yet to allow an early run at home.
Neither lineup has been particularly potent, especially lately. Detroit has scored an early run just nine times in 46 home games (19.6%) while Seattle has failed to score in 13 of their last 14 games dating back to before the All-Star break. Things looked dicey for the Mariners at the plate yesterday as they got blanked by Michael Lorenzen and tallied just three hits in the game.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Reese Olson vs.:
J.P. Crawford (never faced)
Julio Rodriguez (never faced)
Ty France (never faced)
Bryce Miller vs.:
Zach McKinstry (0-for-3, K)
Riley Greene (1-for-3)
Spencer Torkelson (1-for-3)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-115)
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