Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
One of the most popular bets in MLB these days is the YRFI and NRFI, mostly because you only have to sweat for about 15 minutes. The YRFI was the more profitable side for the first 2 months of the season, but recently we’ve seen the NRFI make a big comeback hitting over 55% in June.
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Unfortunately, I went 0-2 with my best bets yesterday as the Mariners and Reds ambushed me with homers in the opening frame. That drops my record to 21-19 with writeups for VSiN so far this season. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, June 18th.
All odds via DraftKings
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics
The A’s have been surging lately, but their early offense has still been suspect. They face a tough test today against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler who has posted an 11-3 NRFI record this season and is allowing a minuscule .176 batting average against in the opening frame. Oakland has failed to score an early run in eight straight games and has only a 19% rate at home this season (7-for-36), well below the MLB average. Wheeler gets virtually a fresh look at this lineup with only 10 career PAs against and none against the projected top five in the batting order.
Lefty Hogan Harris makes just his second career big league start. The first one was an NRFI, but he allowed several runs after that against the Pirates on June 7th. His last outing was much more impressive, pitching seven innings and allowing just one run in relief against the Rays earlier this week. He also gets the advantage of a fresh look at this Phillies lineup that really struggles against lefties, especially early in games. In fact, Philly has the third lowest wRC+ in the first inning against southpaws since May 1st.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Zack Wheeler vs:
Esteury Ruiz (never faced)
Ryan Noda (never faced)
Ramon Laureano (never faced)
Hogan Harris vs:
Kyle Schwarber (never faced)
Trea Turner (never faced)
Bryce Harper (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-125)
Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland is the hottest YRFI team in baseball, with an 11-4 mark in June. Arizona is not too far behind at 9-6. Both teams feature scrappy offenses that can generate runs in multiple ways. I especially like the matchup for the Diamondbacks at home against rookie starter Tanner Bibee, who was lit up in his last start on the road against the Padres. Bibee began his career with seven straight NRFIs but has since allowed an early run in two consecutive starts with a whopping 6.43 ERA in June.
Zach Davies starts for Arizona, and his numbers are nothing to write home about with a 3-2 NRFI mark so far this season in limited action. His .370 batting average against and 6.69 xFIP in the first inning are amongst the highest on the board today for any starting pitcher. Cleveland’s lineup is much more prolific at home with a 42% scoring rate (14-for-33) in the first inning compared to just 24% on the road (9-for-37), but they’ve scored in two of their last five away games, including last night in the desert.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Tanner Bibee vs:
Pavin Smith (never faced)
Ketel Marte (never faced)
Corbin Carroll (never faced)
Zach Davies vs:
Steven Kwan (0-for-1)
Amed Rosario (8-for-12, HR)
Jose Ramirez (0-for-4)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-130)
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