Best bets for UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
This week’s UFC 296 PPV fight card is a stacked event that will complete 2023 for the organization. The slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts featuring athletes from around the globe who bring their individualized fight weaponry into Las Vegas to win a fight, earn some cheese and close the year on a winning note.
All UFC athletes aspire to compete in PPV events because of the immense exposure they deliver. Once on a PPV card, the next ascent is to find oneself on the main card of any PPV event. Once there, a fighter’s earnings are magnified, intensifying the importance of the opportunity.
Profitability into this last event of the year stands 21-19 +2.8u.
Let’s Fight
Leon Edwards -160 vs. Colby Covington +135
Welterweight (170 pounds) Championship
Finocchiaro: Englishman Edwards wrested the Welterweight title in magnificent fashion when he head-kick KO’d then champion Kamaru Usman in August 2022. His title defense against Usman this past March was less spectacular, though the title remained with Edwards.
Edwards has a very balanced mixed martial arts arsenal; he’s been in with the elite of the division. winning eleven straight since 2016. This is his second defense of the title, and Edwards arrives to the fight quietly confident he will retain his title
Colby Covington arrives as the brash antagonist, which is his ‘schtick,’ and he plays it very well. An elite D1 college wrestler, Covington has dominated the division save for Usman, though he’s not had the opportunity to tangle with Edwards yet.
In the cage, Covington’s intense, forward-pressing pressure wrestling and his unlimited cardio are the foundations of his unrelenting attacks.
Outside the cage, he hurls endless, tasteless insults at opponents with a foul-mouthed, in-your-face delivery. This tactic repulses most anyone who is within earshot as well as the target those insults are directed towards.
This Covington tactic makes him one of the more abrasive yet elite mentalists in the game, and he’s been trying to needle Edwards since this bout was announced.
Southpaw Edwards’ advantages are found in his height, reach, youth and calm demeanor. Edwards should be somewhat prepared for the pressure of Covington after a couple of bouts against Usman, though Covington’s pressure is more unrelenting as he’s willing to wrestle from bell to bell, while Usman’s legs had long since expired by the time he tussled with Edwards.
Covington will drive to press forward and clinch Edwards against the fence, take him down, and then wrestle him up, which will be the key to this fight for him.
Challenges for Covington are that he’s now 35 and has not battled in the cage for over a year. Does that negatively affect him, or will he arrive firing fresh as a daisy? I believe the latter, honestly.
He’ll work to systematically wear Edwards out by wrapping him up early and dragging him to the floor for a rock n roll session, but can he execute a wrestling-heavy game plan against a man with substantial wrestling chops himself?
Covington’s going to be giving up substantial size on Saturday, and he’ll be at a disadvantage on the feet, so he will focus on clasping, clinching and grappling. Meanwhile, Edwards will be attempting to maintain space and control distance in order to clobber Colby coming in.
Covington is a special breed of cardio maniac, and while I have great respect for Edwards as a mixed martial artist, I must consider that the exultation and notoriety in recent months, coupled with the fact that he’s not seen this form of pressure in prior bouts, may tilt this fight to Covington.
It’s easier to get to the mountain top than remain there.
Eventually, when this bout hits the championship rounds, and I believe it does, conditioning will be the story of this fight.
Will Edwards succumb to the old adage that “fatigue makes cowards of us all?” Or will Edwards have the legs, movement and ability to maintain distance and crack Colby as he attempts to gain inside position?
This is going to be an excellent test for both athletes, but it’s in the championship rounds where I handicap Covington’s mettle may separate these two.
Pick: Covington +135 1u
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over
Kuhn: The final fight of the year will be a tricky one. Edwards has come through twice in a row as a sizable dog, but now he’s in the odd position of an incumbent champ facing a new opponent and being the favorite at that.
But Covington is a very different opponent than Usman, one that is also frustrating to face. The challenger has more than double the average striking pace of the champ and is adept at delivering punches in bunches, even if he lacks much power.
The hesitancy of Edwards makes striking more of a liability in scoring rounds, and that doesn’t even factor in Covington’s wrestling. There’s enough here to support an upset in what should be a very close decision.
Alexandre Pantoja -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Finocchiaro: Rematch.
In August 2021 Pantoja submitted Royval when Pantoja was focused solely on gaining his title shot, while Royval was a talented but yet developing future flyweight talent.
Pantoja choked Royval out in the second round of that bout, and now, he defends his title for the first time in a rematch against a kid in Royval that, since their first bout, has greatly evolved physically, mentally and emotionally.
Royval’s two years younger, he’s four inches taller, and the lefty holds a reach advantage of seven inches. Together these physical advantages may contribute to dominance, provided Royval can utilize movement and distance in order to ensure the fight remains at distance and standing.
In the first bout, Royval’s wild approach and lack of experience manifested itself into an uneven performance both mentally and physically as Pantoja was simply the more refined, aggressive, complete mixed martial artist in the cage that night.
In this battle, I believe Royval must take a planned but aggressive approach to the new champion and introduce himself early as the bigger, stronger, more determined athlete. This will be no easy task against a warrior with the fight arsenal and pride of Pantoja.
Royval’s size, length, youth and focus must together be utilized to force Pantoja into realizing this is a different fighter and a different night than when these two first fought and possibly a different outcome.
Pantoja’s story is a powerful one that encompasses plenty of past pain and professional obstacles, but he’s overcome all of that to become a world champion.
Since becoming champion, however, the exultation, recognition and notoriety that comes with being champion, coupled with the wealth for his family, may not have had time to do their corrosive work yet. But I must wonder if and how Pantoja will be able to match the intensity of performance he displayed in his last bout against Moreno.
Royval matches up well against Pantoja.
Pick: Royval +160 .8U
Patience with this release. The world is playing Pantoja. Take Royval at +160 or higher!
Kuhn: This one should spend more time on the feet pairing two excellent strikers. But while our sample size for Royval could be a concern, he does stack up well against the champ. On a card loaded with aggressive strikers, Royval tops the list among men. He averages 20.8 strike attempts per minute while standing, yet still maintains above-average accuracy and knockdown power that is far above the Flyweight average.
But it’s the defense of Pantoja that really opens the door to Royval for an upset. Pantoja’s total head strike defense of 58% is near the bottom of the list, and also a very rare deficiency for a champion. It’s the combination of these factors that says the dog has more than a puncher’s chance.
Bryce Mitchell -130 vs. Josh Emmett +110
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Kuhn: It’s a fast turnaround, so let’s hope Mitchell didn’t take much damage in his victory against the undersized striker, Dan Ige. Emmett is coming off a lopsided loss that saw him take an enormous amount of damage. Factor in a 10-year youth advantage for Mitchell, and we can assume his recovery from a win is less of an issue than Emmett’s recovery from a tough loss.
Stylistically, we see a similarly extreme dynamic. Mitchell’s dominant grappling is poised for success against the below-average takedown defense of Josh Emmett. Mitchell spends 49% of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat, often transitioning position with ease to maintain dominance. And then there’s his arsenal of submissions that make his grappling more than just a way to win rounds.
Emmett’s big punches are still a threat. But if he’s lost a little speed, or if opponents have learned to time his swings, Emmett’s puncher’s chance could be diminishing. Look for Mitchell to take a wet blanket approach to smothering Emmett. He’s a good parlay leg if you need one, and there’s a fair amount of finishing potential on both sides. An Under 2.5 play could be cheaper than a straight play but also hedges against an Emmett haymaker. Otherwise, look for Mitchell’s submission prop to offer the highest return.
Pick: Bryce Michell to win
