¡Vamos! The model sits at 102–63–7 on the year with 12 events left on the calendar. Noche UFC is one of the marquee nights of the fall schedule.
Dave Ross and I broke down the card on this week’s First Strike, give it a listen and watch before you finalize your card. We also start the first week of our First Strike Survivor challenge. Find out who are picks are for the event!
Now let’s dig into some numbers.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes
Waldo has been one of the more entertaining heavyweight stories of the last two years with five wins, two losses, and a fanbase that keeps growing. His most recent setback came against Alexander Volkov in May as a small underdog, and his two losses have come against his two toughest opponents. The upward trajectory is still real even if the last result stings.
Curtis Blaydes hasn’t been nearly as active. Just two fights since 2024, most recently a decision loss to Josh Hokit in April. He’s 2–2 in that stretch and enters as the underdog in this one.
Blaydes holds a two-inch reach advantage and a modest xR% edge, 76% for Blaydes, 69% for Waldo. Both men are proven finishers with a combined 13 UFC knockouts, though it’s Blaydes who has been stopped five times, four of those losses coming against Ngannou twice, Aspinall, and Pavlovich. That context matters when evaluating the chin question.
The striking favors Waldo. He spends 84% of his time at distance, landing 5.18 significant strikes per minute with a +1.57 differential and six knockdowns scored. Blaydes lands 4.18 per minute with a +1.42 differential, absorbing only 2.76 per minute, cleaner than expected given the recent war with Josh Hokit.
The real story is the ground game. Blaydes holds a 91% control rate, has scored 66 takedowns at 48% accuracy, and averages 7.11 attempts per five minutes. He is one of the most relentless wrestling-pressure fighters in the heavyweight division. Waldo defends at 74%, which is solid, but he hasn’t faced many grappling-heavy opponents at this level. If Blaydes gets this fight to the mat, the dynamic shifts dramatically.
The model delivers a Tier 1 Live Dog label for Curtis Blaydes at +170. The path is there. Take the fight to the ground, control Waldo, and grind out a win. The price makes it worth backing.
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso
The flyweight division is reshuffling after Valentina Shevchenko vacated the title due to injury. Natalia Silva and Wang Cong will fight for the vacant belt at UFC 332 next month. But here, two women are making their case for what comes next.
Manon Fiorot bounced back from her title loss to Shevchenko with a strong win over Jasmine Jasudavicius in October and returns with momentum. Alexa Grasso had been in a slump until March, when she brutally finished Maycee Barber with her first UFC knockout. Looking sharp and dangerous in a way we hadn’t seen in a while.
The xR% gap is the first major separator. Fiorot sits at a strong 77%. Grasso, even after the Barber performance, sits at 52%. That is dangerously close to the red flag line. One spectacular finish doesn’t change a full career’s worth of round-winning data.
The striking reinforces the gap. Fiorot lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute with a +2.08 differential, absorbing only 3.58 per minute. That is elite output.
Grasso lands 4.11 per minute with a +0.40 differential. Both women carry power, but Fiorot is a much harder target to replicate the Barber performance against.
The grappling picture isn’t close either. Fiorot holds an 80% control rate and defends takedowns at 88%. Grasso has a 28% control rate and only 55% takedown defense. If Fiorot wants to physically dominate exchanges and dictate range, she has the tools to do it.
The model delivers an 83% win probability for Manon Fiorot, a Tier 1 Favorite. Her moneyline sits at –230, which is on the higher end but the model still sees an edge. She’ll at minimum serve as a parlay anchor this week, with props worth exploring as the lines develop.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno finds himself in unwanted territory, a two-fight losing streak, a knockout loss, and now entering Noche UFC as a slight underdog at +105 in front of what should be a supportive crowd in Arizona on Noche UFC weekend.
Joseph Morales is the other side of an interesting story. He had a brief UFC run in 2017–2018, went 1–2, left, eventually entered The Ultimate Fighter Season 33, and returned to the UFC officially in 2025. Winning both bouts since, most recently a submission over Matt Schnell in November. He’s on a five-fight streak and riding momentum, but the jump in competition here is significant.
Both men are 32 years old and share nearly identical physical dimensions with a one inch of reach separating them with Moreno at 70 inches.
The xR% gives Moreno the edge at 60% to Morales’ 53%. Though important to note that Morales’ numbers only includes his 5 UFC bouts, with three fights being from eight years ago.So the current sample is thin and the caveat matters.
The striking numbers favor Moreno. He lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute with a +0.19 differential. It’s modest output but four knockdowns scored across his career. Morales lands just 2.00 significant strikes per minute with a –0.05 differential. Very low output against a fighter as active as Moreno on the feet.
The grappling picture leans Moreno as well. He holds a 64% control rate. Morales carries eight submission attempts and two UFC submission wins, but his 27% takedown defense means he could find himself on the mat whether he wants to be or not. Moreno has never been submitted in his career.
The model delivers a 73% win probability for Brandon Moreno. At +105, that’s a live underdog with an edge. The experience veteran in a spot where the crowd, the occasion, and the numbers all point in his direction.
Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado
The original main event was Silva vs Yair Rodriguez, but injury pulled Rodriguez out roughly three weeks ago and Delgado stepped in on short notice. That context is the most important number in this fight.
Jean Silva bounced back in January with a decision over Arnold Allen after his TKO loss to Diego Lopes. He’s a dangerous, forward-pressing fighter with four knockouts and a submission in the UFC. A legitimate threat in every exchange. Delgado enters 4–1 in his five-fight UFC career, on a two-fight win streak, but making a significant jump in competition on approximately three weeks of preparation.
Delgado does hold physical advantages. Four inches of height and four inches of reach at 73 inches. The xR% numbers are nearly identical here at 62% for Silva, 60% for Delgado. Both men carry power; five knockdowns for Silva, four for Delgado already in his shorter career.
The striking shapes up as a war. Delgado lands 6.05 significant strikes per minute with a +1.88 differential. Those are impressive numbers for a younger fighter. Silva lands 4.57 per minute with a modest +0.13 differential, absorbing over four per minute. Both men are walking into a fire fight.
The ground game barely exists between them. A combined seven takedowns across both UFC careers. This fight lives and dies on the feet, which is exactly where Silva is most comfortable pushing the pace forward. But Delgado may be as well.
The model produces a slight lean toward the big underdog in Delgado, but delivers a Tier 3 Dead Dog label. That’s the model telling us to stay away. And Silva at -420 is off the tabel as well.
Delgado’s The three-week camp, the step up in competition, and the low confidence level all point in the same direction: this is a must watch fight, but not a must bet.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck on Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
