The 2026 Model record now sits at 94–50–6 (65.28%) on the year. Let’s end the summer hot with UFC 330. (If you live in Vegas that’s only kind of funny).
Dave Ross, Reed Kuhn, and I broke down the card on this week’s First Strike give it a listen/watch before you finalize your card. Make sure to hit that subscribe button to follow our special First Strike YouTube page.
Let’s dig in.
Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Neil Magny has been a UFC fixture since 2013, his debut came the same night as the first Rousey fight at UFC 157, which tells you everything about how long he’s been around. In the years since, he’s gone 24–13 in the promotion, fought everyone put in front of him, and somehow still finds himself relevant at 39 years old. His most recent outing was a submission loss to Yaroslav Amosov last December, and he’s now 4–5 since 2023. The record is what it is, but the résumé behind it carries real weight.
Across from him is Ramiz Brahimaj, 33 years old and coming off a decision loss to Punahele Soriano in February. Before that he was on a three-fight win streak, and he sits at 3–2 since 2024. He’s a capable fighter, but the level of competition he’s navigated raises questions that Magny’s résumé doesn’t.
The physical edge goes to Magny in a meaningful way, he’s 6’3 to Brahimaj’s 5’10, with an eight-inch reach advantage at 80 inches.
The xR% gap reinforces the picture. Magny sits at 57%, workable but not elite, reflecting a career that has seen its share of tough nights. Brahimaj checks in at 38%, a red flag number that tells you he’s losing rounds at an alarming rate against the caliber of opponents he’s been facing.
The striking numbers favor Magny clearly. He lands 3.40 significant strikes per minute with a +0.96 differential, absorbing only 2.44 per minute. It’s efficient, controlled striking from a fighter who has learned to protect himself over a long career. Brahimaj lands 2.29 per minute with a –0.98 differential, absorbing 3.27 per minute. He’s giving back less than he’s taking, and that’s before you factor in Magny’s significant size and reach edge making those exchanges even harder for Brahimaj to win.
The grappling is modest from both sides. Magny holds a 40% control rate and has scored 64 takedowns across his long UFC career at 40% accuracy. The volume is there even if the efficiency isn’t elite. Brahimaj counters with a 32% control rate and 34% takedown accuracy. Both men carry multiple submission victories, which adds a finishing wrinkle to a fight that might otherwise trend toward a decision.
The model runs it through and lands on the veteran underdog. Neil Magny receives a Tier 1 Live Dog designation at current odds of +110. The model likes the size advantage, the strength of schedule differential, and the striking efficiency gap. All pointing toward a fighter who, despite his age and recent record, is still the statistically stronger option in this matchup.
Live Dogs have been cold. But they haven’t shown up much lately either. This is one worth backing.
Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
The Silent Assassin continues his middleweight experiment, and the model is firmly on his side again.
Vicente Luque made his middleweight debut in April and immediately made a statement, submitting Kelvin Gastelum in the first round as a +200 underdog. A win is a win, and a first-round submission in a new weight class is an encouraging sign. Now he faces Tresean Gore, who is coming off a submission win of his own over Azamat Bekoev in April.
Both men share identical reach at 75 inches, so the physical edge doesn’t factor here. Where things start to diverge is the xR%. Luque sits at 56%, nothing spectacular but workable. Gore checks in at 34%, a deeply concerning number that reflects a 3–4 UFC record and consistent round-losing across his career.
The finishing résumé gap is significant. Luque has eight knockouts and seven submissions in the UFC, a genuinely prolific finishing record at any weight class. He’s also scored 11 knockdowns in his UFC career. Gore has scored zero knockdowns in the UFC. The danger is entirely one-directional in this matchup.
The striking numbers cement the gap. Luque lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with a –0.45 differential. Not ideal on the differential, but the output is real. Gore lands just 3.41 per minute with a damning –3.59 differential, absorbing a staggering seven significant strikes per minute. He is taking more than double what he’s giving back. Luque doesn’t have to be the sharpest striker to land the necessary shots against Gore.
The ground game is relatively quiet from both sides. Neither man attempts takedowns at a high rate. Luque at 0.93 per five minutes, Gore at 1.30. And both hold solid takedown defense, Gore actually at an impressive 84%. This fight likely plays out on the feet, which is exactly where Luque’s finishing ability can become the dominant factor.
The model runs it through and delivers a 79% win probability for Vicente Luque. Another Tier 1 Live Dog at current odds around -105. We got in at +125 earlier in the week before the line moved, and even at the current price the edge between the model’s number and the implied probability remains meaningful.
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
Mackenzie Dern fulfilled her championship dream last October, defeating Virna Jandiroba for the vacant strawweight belt in a performance that showcased everything that makes her one of the most technically gifted grapplers in the history of women’s MMA. She enters this title defense on a three-fight win streak and as the champion.
Gillian “The Savage” Robertson enters on a five-fight win streak, most recently a strong decision over Amanda Lemos that earned her this shot. From 2019 to 2022 she went 4–4 in three years. Since 2023 she’s gone 6–1. The trajectory couldn’t be clearer. She holds the women’s record for most submission wins in UFC history with seven, is tied for the most total finishes at 10. She finishes fights, she finishes them in multiple ways, and she is coming in with everything to gain.
The physical matchup is nearly identical, Robertson holds a one-inch height advantage and both women share a 63-inch reach.
The xR% gap tells the first part of the story. Dern, surprisingly for a champion, sits at 55%, one of the lower marks we’ve seen from a title holder recently. Robertson checks in at 61%, a more stable round-winning profile that reflects consistent improvement over her recent run.
The striking isn’t pretty from either side, but the numbers have something to say. Dern lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a –0.47 differential. She’s absorbing more than she’s landing on the feet. Robertson lands less at 2.71 per minute with a –0.15 differential, spending only 36% of her time at distance, she’d rather be in close. Dern has been knocked down six times in the UFC. But Robertson has never scored a knockdown either.
Now here’s where the fight really lives.
Robertson holds a 77% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spends 50% of her fight time in a control position, has scored 38 takedowns at 41% accuracy, and averages 6.30 takedown attempts per five minutes. She is relentless, she is aggressive, and she accumulates 12 submission attempts of her own. This is a fighter who can match Dern’s grappling game and potentially beat her at it.
Dern counters with a 60% control rate and 16 submission attempts, the third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu is always dangerous on the mat, always. Her 18% takedown accuracy is a concern, but she doesn’t need takedowns to threaten submissions in scrambles and from her back. The finishing ability is real regardless of the path. She doesn’t mind giving up the takedown in order to create opportunities. The concern is, Robertson could find success in that top work.
The model doesn’t see the path going Dern’s way on Saturday. Gillian Robertson receives a 75% win probability and a Tier 1 Live Dog designation. We got in at +210 over the weekend before the line moved to +175 to +180 across Vegas. Both numbers represent significant value against the model’s output.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
Islam Makhachev is currently tied with Anderson Silva for the most consecutive UFC wins at 16. His last loss came in 2015, a TKO defeat to Adriano Martins at UFC 192. Adriano Martins has gone 1–6–1 since that night. You truly cannot make this MMA Math up.
Makhachev captured the welterweight belt last November with a dominant performance over Jack Della Maddalena, becoming a two-division champion and one of the pound-for-pound best fighters alive. Saturday he looks to extend that win streak to 17 and make history on his own.
Ian Machado Garry enters on a two-fight win streak, most recently a decision over former champion Belal Muhammad in November. He carries only one professional loss, to Shavkat Rakhmonov in 2024, and at 28 years old with a legitimate title shot in hand, he represents an interesting challenge to the champion’s reign.
The physical edge goes to Garry in a significant way. He’s 6’3 to Islam’s 5’10, with a four-inch reach advantage at 74 inches. That size differential at welterweight is real, and at 28 years old the youth advantage is notable as well.
The xR% gap is stark. Islam sits at an elite 86% across 18 UFC fights. Sustaining that number over that sample is genuinely extraordinary. Garry checks in at a solid 69%, a number that reflects a fighter who controls fights and wins rounds consistently. Islam is just operating at a different level.
The striking advantage belongs to Garry on paper. He lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute with an excellent +1.92 differential, absorbing only 2.86 per minute. It’s clean, efficient, and dangerous. But Islam only spends 41% of his time at distance, landing 2.45 per minute with a +1.00 differential and absorbing just 1.45 significant strikes per minute. He is virtually impossible to hit cleanly, and the reason he doesn’t need to win the striking battle is what comes next.
Islam holds an 87% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spending 51% of his time in a control position with 41 takedowns at 56% accuracy. He is a suffocating, relentless grappling presence that has dismantled everyone put in front of him.
The number that matters most for Garry is his 80% takedown defense. That is the stat that gives him a path. If he can keep this fight standing, his striking output and size advantage give him a real chance to outwork the champion over 25 minutes. If Islam gets him down, and he will try relentlessly, the script flips entirely.
Running it through the model, the output lands on the champion. Islam Makhachev receives a 63% win probability, but the confidence level produces a Tier 5 trap favorite label with current odds of –340. The model believes Islam wins. The model also believes the market has overpriced him.
Three consecutive weeks of Tier 5 favorites hitting doesn’t change the math on this one. Each fight is independent. At –340, the moneyline stays off the slip. As a parlay piece, the risk of compounding that price with other plays feels uncomfortable given the matchup.
The official prediction is Islam Makhachev. The official betting position is watching one of the most dominant fighters in the sport try to make history.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
