UFC 330 Predictions:
Philadelphia, PA, the City of Brotherly ‘Shove,’ hosts this week’s UFC 330. The fight slate is populated with 12 bouts, which shall be held in a large 30-foot octagon in front of a frantic Philly fan base. The card features only a couple of area athletes, which is relatively unusual.
There is one Philly fighter facing an athlete who must travel into the states to compete (Wells vs. Oralbai) and one bout where a Pennsylvanian athlete, Dustin Stolzfus, faces a fighter from Maryland, Mansur Abdul-Malik.
We will witness six domestic athletes facing fighters that must travel into the country to compete, and eight of the scheduled twelve fights feature athletes weighing 170 pounds and above.
Higher weight classes deliver finish rates, so we can see that the organization is looking to deliver fantastic finishes. Five of the eight fights at those higher weights are lined with a total of 1.5 Rds, proving the potential for exciting finishes.
Last week, Amanda Lemos did, in fact, ‘fight for our money’ as she put out a great effort. Unfortunately, it was not good enough to get her hand raised.
We move forward into this card looking to get back onto the winning track!
Record to date: 13-14-1 -1.45u
Islam Makhachev -330 vs. Ian Machado Garry +285
Welterweight (170 pounds) Championship
Ian Machado Garry is an Irish copycat of Conor McGregor, only without the finishing ability and charisma of the former UFC legend.
Garry does possess a black belt in Judo to complement his deft, fluid footwork and his always-running mouth. While Garry’s power does not intimidate anyone in the division, his speed, fluidity of movement, defensive dominance and pitter-patter volume striking allow him to shuck and jive his way through most dangerous fights and even into this one.
Garry is a decision machine when things go his way, as proven by the fact that his last six bouts, all victories, have each been decided by decision.
Garry’s mouth is far more poignant than his fighting, but there is a clear path of victory here for the Irish blowhard… the pitter-patter shuck-and-jive decision win.
Garry’s athleticism and ability to use his feet as well as anyone in the UFC will be the tools he must rely upon to have any chance to win this fight. He must not allow his vice-grip Russian opponent to clasp onto him. In anything but freeform space, Garry is in real trouble in this matchup.
Islam Makhachev may be one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in UFC history, and with a victory here, he solidifies his claim as one of the most accomplished UFC athletes of all time.
Makhachev will be the slighter man in the cage Saturday as Garry will be five inches taller, with a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. Garry is also eight years younger.
If Garry can float (and pop) like a butterfly for 25 minutes, maintain a safe distance from this Russian vice grip, and force this fight into the late rounds, he absolutely has a chance to win.
For the champ Makhachev, this fight simply revolves around how long it takes him to cut the cage, clasp onto the brash Irishman, drag him to the canvas, then control him from top position on his way to greasing Garry into the mat.
Garry will be the flashy, faster rabbit early in this battle. Makhachev will be the tortoise force pursuing the speedster in meticulous, calculated fashion.
In order to win a championship, a fight needs to be won, and eventually Garry will be forced to engage in his kicking/striking if he wants to win this fight.
Makhachev will capitalize on that tactical mistake and shoot to clasp onto the Irishman, ground him, then mark him up with punches, elbows, and ground and pound.
Makhachev opened -300 in this title fight and is currently -340 at Circa.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -180
Mackenzie Dern -220 vs. Gillian Robertson +190
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Robertson is a Canadian athlete who enters this fight after defeating her last five opponents, three via submission (which, as a black belt in BJJ, she is apt at), and two via TKO, as she is decent at throwing hands also.
However, Robertson’s level of competition faced is not elite. With this step up in mixed martial arts class, she will get a taste of fighting someone with world-class BJJ skill.
Mackenzie Dern is the daughter of Wellington Dias, a multiple-time BJJ champion in Brazil. Since she was in diapers, Dern has been competing and winning BJJ world titles.
Once in the UFC, she needed to incorporate striking and strike defense into her weaponry. While she’s still in development there, her grappling and submission game are on a level all their own in the whole of women’s MMA.
When this fight begins, it will be Dern who will control the striking and eventually the ground. While both ladies believe they can excel there, Robertson is giving away too much skill across the board in this fight. I believe this is a very advantageous spot for Mackenzie Dern.
UFC 330 Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern -220
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -220
Lean Over
Friday, my final releases will be available on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Catch it wherever podcasts are offered or on my webpage, GambLou.com.Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.
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