UFC 313 Pereira vs. Ankalaev Predictions:
UFC 313 takes place this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, where a full house of fight fans and the 30-foot octagon will be in use. Preliminary action kicks off at 3:30 p.m. PT, with the main PPV card dropping at 7 p.m. PT.
This production is scheduled for 12 bouts, featuring fighters from across the globe. Of the 12 fights, five feature athletes who are welterweight and larger, which should equate to violent finishes, or at least those are the hopes of the fans and the UFC.
Last week, Cody Brundage +140 knocked out fellow training partner Julian Marquez and pushed digital results this year to 4-4, right at dead even ( -.20u). We’ve made up four plus units over the last couple of events, so let’s keep the momentum running with UFC 313.
Alex Pereira -110 vs. Magomed Ankalaev -110
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) Championship
Russian Ankalaev is the number one ranked contender in the division. He’s an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.
Ankalaev fights with grappling on his mind. While he is effective with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise or dazzling in that specialty. Rather, he employs his kicking/striking as a weapon to back opponents up so he may earn his way into the clasp/clinch/grope.
Ankalaev is the shorter man, giving up reach in this fight. The metrics for his success mean he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus the effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ in order for him to realize success in this fight.
He must wrestle from bell to bell. A wrestling competition will drain Pereira and force him to defend, not unleash. It is my position that for months now, Ankalaev’s been preparing for this battle, this opponent, and this specific approach to winning the title.
For Pereira, the book has always been that in UFC competition and as a striker, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were ineffective. Yet, to this date, few have tried to take that form of fight against Pereira. None, in fact!
Ankalaev will utilize a wrestling/grappling-heavy approach to win. If this fight remains standing, Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking will dominate Ankalaev who will also be giving up athleticism and speed to his Brazilian foe.
“Styles make fights,” and this is as typical a stylistic matchup as we can find. Ankalaev must smother the striker with forward pressure, constant clutching, and put him on the mat, where from top position he may reign damage on the straight-jacketed striker.
For Pereira, he needs to utilize his feet to maintain his ideal striking distance then try to time power punches, knees and elbows onto the incoming grappler’s cranium when he forges his way inside.
Ankalaev’s Sambo and forceful forward pressure will need to be dealt with.
For some five-plus years now, Pereira has been training BJJ and wrestling takedown defense with Glover Teixeira constantly. They both called for this fight because they believed that Pereira’s size, strength, and takedown defense were such that he was ready for this challenge.
Lastly, Ankalaev has been slaving in a gym preparing for this fight for better than a few years now. Meanwhile, Pereira’s been the man of the moment, exalted wherever he goes in the world, and lately, he’s been covering every corner of said world.
Could ‘Poatan’ be getting too much Chama?
Ankalaev opened -200 for this fight, and he is now a pick ’em. When it comes to focus alone, I must say that I lean to Ankalaev.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -160
Rafael Fiziev -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
This is a rematch of a fight that took place in 2023, where Fiziev, a -230 favorite, received an utter beat down at the hands of Gaethje +210.
Today, Fiziev’s favorite price is much lower than it was in 2023, yet for many, the fact that he comes into this fight again as the favorite after the shellacking he took back then may be a surprise.
Eleventh-ranked Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with a solid wrestling base and dynamic Muay Thai striking acumen, as evidenced by the fact that he is the striking coach at the world-famous Tiger Muay Thai gym in Phuket, Thailand.
Fiziev enters this fight off that loss to Gaethje in early 2023, then a loss to Mateusz Gamrot later that year, where he incurred a knee injury. He’s been recovering since and was preparing for a rematch with Gamrot when this opportunity arose.
When fully healthy, and we can believe that he is, Fiziev’s skills are more refined than Gaethje’s. He’s younger, quicker, displays effective footwork and is patient/premeditated with his attack.
Fiziev’s strikes, while they carry effectiveness in their volume, are more precise and delivered from varying angles. He does his damage with volume striking.
Gaethje enters this fight off the devastation of the Holloway defeat, though to Gaethje, that is simply regarded as a loss, for he wears the warrior spirit day in and day out.
In this rematch, Gaethje will attempt to utilize the same premeditated, patient but aggressive striking attack that he so perfectly executed on Fiziev the last time these two tangled.
It will be Gaethje’s leg-numbing kicking arsenal that again will be on full display, especially against a foe that will be entering the pocket to try to engage and also one who happens to be coming off of a major knee reconstruction.
At 31, I must give Fiziev speed, quickness, and revenge considerations, while Gaethje must be credited with size, strength, power, and the experience of already dominating this opponent.
This fight will again be decided on the feet, and it should provide fight fans with tremendous action, but I am not certain how much has changed between these two since their first fight.
Total in this three-round fight: 2.5 Under -115.
Iasmin Lucindo -150 vs. Amanda Lemos +130
Women’s strawweight (115 pounds)
There’s been a plethora of older athletes competing against younger ones recently in the UFC, and this fight is exhibit ‘A’ to that.
In this battle, 23-year-old Lucindo, fresh off a win over a modestly talented division foe, enters the octagon 4-1 in the UFC after having won her last four. Lucindo, ranked seventh in the division, steps up madly in class of opponent for this fight.
She’ll be facing an aggressive, experienced power striker in fifth-ranked and 37-year-old Lemos, who has been in with a far superior level of opponent.
Lemos opened -156 for this fight, and the money has flowed to Lucindo, creating a terrific underdog opportunity on Lemos as I handicap this fight.
Lemos, despite her age, is strong, powerful, and ultra-aggressive. Her experience, coupled with her forceful aggression, put her in a position to award young Lucindo her PhD. in MMA.
UFC 313 Best Bet: Amanda Lemos +130
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265
Friday at midday PST, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC 313 there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
