WNBA Picks
We cashed our lone bet of Friday night, with the Fever coming through late to comfortably cover the 7.5 against Dallas at home, and we’re now on a 13-6 run. Saturday’s slate has three games, featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the New York Liberty, the Washington Mystics hosting the LA Sparks, and the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Minnesota Lynx. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday, August 15th.
Connecticut Sun (+8.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 173
Connecticut got absolutely embarrassed at home in its last game vs Atlanta, and the Sun are now playing 7.5 points below their already-low season average, scoring just 69 points per game over that span. New York has won eight of its last ten and they are playing 6.5 points better than their season average over the last three. TSI projects Liberty -8 with a total of 168.5, but I’m a little hesitant on the Under, only because New York’s last three road games have averaged 196 points, and on the season they score three more and allow eleven more points per game on the road than at home. The conflicting data is going to keep me off this game.
Washington Mystics (-6.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 171.5
Washington has lost two straight games – both on the road at Las Vegas – after winning seven straight previously. Despite the two losses, they’re still playing two points above their season average over the last three, and more specifically, their last three home games have been ten points better than their season average. LA has lost three straight games and is playing right at their season average over the last three. Interestingly, in LA’s last three road games, they’ve been 7.5 points better than their season average. TSI projects Mystics -5 with a total of 168 in this game, and while I love to back Washington at home and play Washington Unders on the road, the numbers and the situation do not allow me to do so here, so I’m going to have to pass.
Las Vegas Aces (+1.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 182.5
The Aces are playing right at their season average over the last three games — not including the blowout to the Liberty without multiple starters. Minnesota is playing a half point above its season average over the last three games, and have won thirteen out of fourteen games. TSI projects Minnesota -1 with a total of 176. On the surface, the Under looks good here, but looking at how these teams have performed when matched up against each other, the last five matchups have gone Over the total and this year’s two games have averaged 190 points. Unfortunately, I’m going to have to pass on the whole slate today, as there are just too many angles that don’t give me the confidence to play and give out. Sometimes the best bets are the ones we don’t make.
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