UFC Best Bets:
We forge into the second half of the UFC calendar year with UFC LV94. Last week, favorites went 6-3-3, pushing the winning percentage this year for chalk to 67.1%. When will underdog correction present itself…will an underdog correction arise? I trust that a correction will transpire before the end of the year. When? That’s a question I can’t answer as we have six months. Now, to our UFC best bets.
Digital results stand 16-13 +6.03u after last week’s release of Drew Dober failed against a young, faster, more fluent fighter in Jean Silva.
Turning to LV 94, Saturday’s fights begin at 2 p.m. PT with preliminary action and 5 p.m. PT for the main card. The card features twelve scheduled bouts, but only two fights pit athletes weighing 170 pounds and above into the reduced confines of the 25-foot APEX octagon.
One final note about late July/August in the UFC: This time of year can be stressful for veteran UFC athletes, who are under tremendous pressure to perform and win. These middle-tier (talent and pay grade) UFC combatants must win to maintain/enhance their standing in the organization against fellow UFC athletes who are trying to do the same.
These vets must differentiate themselves from the wave of young, inexpensive, and inexperienced labor flowing into the organization from Dana White’s Contender Series. This presents tremendous pressure, but these fighters know that if they ‘put on a show’ where they’ll get paid and recognized.
The focus, desperation, and determination this time of year often lead to reckless forward-pressing aggression in bouts, which is exactly the business the UFC is in.
I believe we’ll see it this week as we saw glimpses last week—violent displays from athletes dealing with this exact pressure to remain relevant and fighting for their careers.
These fighters’ names are less recognizable to mainstream fight fans exemplified by the fact that this card is populated with six athletes’ arriving from Brazil while another four ship in from South Korea.
Just like last week, the names may be obscure, but the fighting will be fierce.
Virna Jandiroba -135 vs. Amanda Lemos +115
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds) Main Event
Fifth-ranked Jandiroba faces third-ranked Lemos for an extremely compelling fight in the strawweight division between Brazilian contenders.
Lemos, 3-1 in her last four UFC events, is the slightly longer, taller athlete in the cage. She’s a ferocious striker who puts massive pronunciation behind her strikes and spinning techniques. She’s extremely aggressive, fast, and mean as a junkyard dog.
Lemos can finish a fight from any position in the cage and is just as capable of drawing taps from opponents as she is knocking them out. What Lemos sometimes fails to administer to, however, is her pace, and on occasion, she can find herself struggling late in bouts.
In Jandiroba we have a more strategic grappler. She’s nowhere near as devastating with her striking arsenal, and in fact, she’ll only try to stand with Lemos long enough to embrace and cling to her for that’s her initial step to success.
Jandiroba must discover a way to envelop Lemos, leverage her against the fence, and then maul Lemos to transition this fight to the floor. If she can execute that plan, she is likely to earn victory here because her steady, matriculated output allows her to compete for thirty minutes, let alone fifteen.
What separates these two is who each has been in the octagon with. Based on the more stringent competition, I must regard Lemos as the athlete who earns victory in the APEX Saturday.
UFC Best Bet: Lemos +120
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -215
UFC Best Bet: Lean Over
Steve Garcia -135 vs. Seungwoo Choi + 110
Featherweight (145 pounds)
These two fighters are in this position to stir a frenzy as each is a savage striker.
Garcia, a southpaw, will hold slight height and reach edges, while Choi arrives as the younger fighter.
Garcia, who fights out of Jackson-Wink in Albuquerque, is a forward-pressing boxer and Muay Thai striker who aggressively seeks engagement at every forward step. His single point of focus is to place himself in front of the opponent in order to stand firm and heave haymakers. In Garcia’s case, his power shots can be straight piercing jabs, solid hooks and crosses and bludgeoning leg kicks.
His counterpart Choi is also a deft kickboxer/Mauy Thai striker, so his forward-pressing attack revolves around his ability to work his way inside via the deep-kick and calf attack, then complete his entry with hand striking and elbows.
Choi, 1-3 in his last four, enters off of an impressive win even though he has been susceptible to power punchers prior.
Once the bell for this fight chimes, I see two determined, long, lethal striking talents meeting in the center of the octagon to careen kicks and elbows off one another’s domes.
Choi has been in with the more formidable opponent but has not fared well against them, nor has he remained highly active recently, as this is his first bout in almost a year.
Garcia is an angry, aggressive instigator, and though this may represent a slight step up in class of opponent for him, it’s my take that his aggressive nature and certain power advantage will be enough for him to get his hand raised in what I handicap to be an all-out stand-up war.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -195
Miranda Maverick -205 vs. Dione Barbosa +180
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Maverick is a wrestling-based dynamo who is a forward-pressing problem. Fighting out of Team Elevation in Colorado, the tiny tornado has been training through a full camp for a fight on this date until that fight was altered, and the organization found a replacement so Maverick could keep her fight.
Barbosa, who is from Brazil, travels to the US for her sophomore UFC battle after winning her debut at UFC 301 in May.
She’s 32 and will be the taller fighter in the cage as well. She’ll be the least experienced athlete, which compounds the complexity of this matchup for her.
Barbosa travels across the globe on short notice to take on a relentless wrestling whiz who has had a full camp to prepare for a fight on this date.
Barbosa’s striking is still relatively pedestrian, and she’ll surely attempt to use Maverick’s aggression against her to work her way into some form of clasp and then attempt to transition into a submission attempt.
The issue with Barbosa’s plan is that Maverick, at age 27, has a depth of UFC experience against the division’s elite, as well as facing fighters with a diversity of skill sets. To say this is a tough ask for Ms. Barbosa is an understatement.
Maverick’s depth of experience, her tenacity, and, most especially, her wrestling chops work together in this fight to earn her a one-sided victory, which, based on the total in this fight, appears to be a decision.
Maverick is a prime parlay piece or a straight-up opportunity.
UFC Best Bet Maverick -205/Garcia -145 Parlay
1 unit invested returns a potential 1.51u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -345
The Bout Business Podcast drops this Friday around noon PT. You can access it for all of my final UFC LV94 releases at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the animosities.
