UFC Fight Night Macau:
This week, the UFC travels around the globe to Macau, China for UFC Fight Night Macau. The event’s preliminary action begins at 3 a.m. ET Saturday morning, so prepare yourselves accordingly, fight fans! There are 14 scheduled bouts on the fight card, but four of those are championship bouts for the UFC production called ‘Road to UFC.’
I don’t handicap fighters until they arrive into the UFC, so I have not handicapped these four bouts, which leaves me with ten actionable bouts on this slate. Of those ten fights, four are in the 170-pound welterweight division or larger, where the finish rates are higher.
UFC Fight Night Macau features one Mongolian and seven Chinese athletes who will be fighting combatants from around the globe.
There are but two remaining fight cards in 2024 after this event from Macau. The next is December 7th, UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Askura from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.
Petr Yan -360 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +300
Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event
Brazilian Figueiredo, the former flyweight (125 pounds) champion enters this bantamweight bout winner of his last three in a row and against pedigreed, legitimate 135-pound competition, but it was competition from outside the top of the division.
At 125 pounds, Figueiredo was used to overpowering most flyweights. As he now steps into the fire to fight the elite of the 135-pound division, he may find that his quickness, agility and grappling may not hold up as structurally against larger men with as diverse a mixed martial arts resume but who have been used to competing against larger framed foes.
My best Petr Yan metaphor is as follows: He fights like a cornered, wounded pit bull mother ready to defend her young against predators.
Yan is 5’7” and is smaller than most bantamweight competition, but he makes up for it with as complete a mixed martial arts munition as there is in the whole of the UFC,
Yan’s a master of sport in boxing, a master of sport in MMA, and a Blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Figueiredo has relied on blunt force trauma and raw power to subdue most opponents, At a higher weight class, Yan has had to overwhelm his opponents with footwork, technique, pressure, and unending cardio. Yan sports a positive strike differential; he has effective take-down ability and an 85% takedown defense.
Yan has competed against elite bantamweights for years now and has earned his number three ranking in the division. It is my position that fifth-ranked Figueiredo has been gifted his position in the rankings without having to overcome any bonafide, a true test of his bantamweight ability. In Yan he’ll get his test, and it will be a stern one at that.
Yan, surprisingly and for the first time in almost forever, will be the taller, larger, younger (by five years) man in the cage when these two tussle.
Once the fight starts, it’s likely that Yan’s size, footwork. forward pressure and technical power striking will force Figueiredo to try to apply his grappling specialty sooner than later.
Then we will learn if Figueiredo can hang with the elite of this division because if he can press Yan to the cage, take him down, and engage in BJJ, he may thrive.
However, if Figgy is unable to engage/clasp onto his Russian foe, then Yan will be in a position to keep this bout a standing battle where Figueiredo will be unable to compete effectively against a man just as fast but much larger, stronger, and more precise with his striking.
It is not out of the question that Yan finishes Figueiredo.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -170
Muslim Salikhov -185 vs. Song Kenan +160
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Russian Salikhov is an honored Master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s extremely durable. He takes his fights directly to opponents and prefers to batter foes from distance with his diverse kicking/striking acumen.
Salikhov’s strengths are his durability, his experience, and his ability to compete anywhere a fight goes, but he is now 40 years old. After a couple of losses, Salikhov enters this fight off a split decision win that many thought should have gone the other way.
Salikhov could well be fighting for his job Saturday, which makes him mighty dangerous.
In Song Kenan, we get an experienced Chinese mixed martial artist who will be six years the younger man in the cage. He’ll be taller and sport a two-inch reach advantage over his Russian adversary.
Kenan, primarily a distance striker, is matched up for success in this fight in front of his fans, as Salikhov will relish the opportunity to compete with him in a standing competition. I envision neither man attempting takedowns unless their bell gets rung, and the frazzled fighter reacts by shooting.
Both men are experienced, both have competed against an array of legitimate welterweight competition, and both are more than likely fighting to remain in the organization, which will bring out the best in each combatant.
The total in this fight of 2.5 Rds Over -160 indicates a three-round competitive battle.
With that in mind, I’ll side with the advantages of size, reach, youth, and home country.
UFC Fight Night Macau Best Bet: Song Kenan +160 (Circa)
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday this week as the fights come to us very early Saturday morning from China. Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading.
