UFC Fight Night Paris Predictions:
This week’s UFC production is a Fight Night event from Paris, France. Early prelims drop at 9 a.m. PT. The fight slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts to be competed inside the traditional 30-foot-cage.
Nine French fighters populate the card with one from Belgium, whom I expect will be regarded by the French fans as one of their own in an event that has athletes competing from across the globe.
Local crowds, athletes, and judging must all be regarded when handicapping these fights, especially those involving local fighters.
Favorites in the UFC stand 255-112-11 or 67.4%. That rate has held for most of the year and is higher than the traditional 63+/-% of the past several years.
In the NOCHE event, the Manuel Torres -120 setback cost us 1.20u. Sneak-Teep releases in 2024 now stand 16-9-2 +7.30u
Let’s pad that profit.
Benoit Saint-Denis -270 vs. Renato Moicano +225
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Moicano is the 11th-ranked lightweight. He’s finding success in the division after competing for years as a lighter featherweight fighter. He’s crafty, well-seasoned and has faced the elite in two different divisions.
Moicano’s recent rise in social media popularity is coupled with a winning run in mixed martial arts results. Moicano enters this bout against this ‘local hero’ opponent with momentum and belief—two traits that can propel a fighter to championships.
Moicano’s game revolves around grappling and submission. He is a black belt in BJJ, and he’s versed in Muay Thai striking. But at 35 years old and considering what he’s been through physically in his career, Moicano’s ability to withstand forceful power strikes from opponents has waned.
To date, he’s overcome his lack of durability with a beguiling ability to overcome firestorms, earn an inside/clasping position on less-versed opponents, and then finish them like a spider does to a fly caught in the web.
In 10th-ranked Saint-Denis, Moicano has his elite opponent.
Saint-Denis is a huge man for the division, and he’ll hulk in size over the more svelte and former featherweight Moicano.
Saint-Denise is a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in Judo. His striking is profusely power-based, though he can sometimes be wild and overly forceful. Against world-class BJJ practitioners like Moicano, wild is never advised.
Saint-Denis is a former member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment in France; he was awarded the Medal of the Nation’s gratitude and the Combatant’s cross after his five years in the French service.
This man is focused. He’s driven to success, and his fighting acumen is derived from his father, a gifted Judo practitioner who taught the art to his son in diapers.
Saint-Denis is the younger man by six years. He’s a southpaw who will be the faster man in the cage, and he’s well more athletic/explosive than Moicano.
BSD took time off from his Poirier loss (one he was rushed into, in my estimation) to regroup and refocus himself for a run at the lightweight title now that he’s tasted world-class competition.
This fight against Moicano in Paris is a desirable spot for Saint-Denis.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -170
Nassourdine Imavov -220 vs. Brendan Allen +185
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
This scheduled five-round battle will be epic.
In one corner, we have a tough, gritty grappler from Florida who is expertly equipped in BJJ but still refining his striking ability. Brendan Allen arrives in Paris with a seven-fight win streak intact. However, a closer look at the competition he’s faced shows that Allen has defeated opponents that any top ten fighter in the division should have defeated.
He steps up in class for this stern test against top-ten competition, and the question to be asked is how he will fare against elite middleweights as a more singularly dimensioned fighter. Allen gives away striking expertise to any athlete currently in the UFC’s top ten middleweights.
Fourth-ranked Imavov of Russian descent (but fighting out of France) solidified his ranking in the top five of this division this past June when, for all intents and purposes, he practically knocked Jared Cannonier out.
With a world-class boxing base, Imavov, 14-4 professionally, has refined his mixed martial arts arsenal to include capable BJJ under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.
He is a most fluent striker with deft footwork and an abundance of damaging power with fists, feet, knees, and elbows. He specializes in striking/kicking precision, and he’s developed his cardio over the course of his last several fights against elite competition to provide him the ability to emit high output into the championship rounds.
At 6-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has diligently matriculated his way into the top five of the division. Now, he can solidify himself as a potential championship contender by dominating Allen in this test.
Imavov will try to keep this fight standing where he’ll own a great advantage. Allen will be shooting for the takedowns and attempting at all costs to eliminate any space between these two and make this a roll in the hay on the canvas of that Paris octagon.
I believe the intelligent, well-rounded fighting acumen of Imavov will be the difference in a fight that will highlight Allen’s toughness but also his lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -140
I like the fact that this is scheduled for five rounds. Each man has experience in five-round bouts, which contributes to this week’s digital release:
UFC Best Bet: Imavov/Allen Over 2.5 Rds. -140
Taylor Lapilus -300 vs. Vince Morales +250
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Lapilus is a French fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC.
In his return, Lapilus has displayed vast improvement in his fighting game. In this tussle, he’s had a full camp to prepare for an opponent who was injured and had to pull out of the fight just a week or so ago.
Lapilus faces Vince Morales, who is coming off a notable win in United Fight League. He takes this fight on short notice with little to no camp to endear himself as a company man to the UFC.
So, with little to no camp or notice, Morales travels into French territory to take on a local hero who has had the benefit of a full camp.
Build all your parlays around Taylor Lapilus fight Enthusiasts!
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds over -300
I will be checking the “Lapilus via decision” props based on that total!
Fights begin Saturday at 9 a.m. PT, so prepare appropriately by accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast, which will be up sometime Friday early morning!
Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading.
