UFC Fight Night Tampa:
Welcome fight enthusiasts to the final UFC event of 2024, Fight Night Tampa Covington vs. Buckley. This card is scheduled for 13 fights, with prelims beginning at 4 p.m. PT and the main card at 7 p.m. PT.
Three of the 13 bouts feature 170-pound men or larger, and the thirty-foot cage will be employed.
Last week, favorites continued their torrid tear by realizing a 12-2 result, pushing chalk to 70.5% on the year.
I feel fortunate to have derived profit through this run of chalk in 2024. Further, this column plans on being front and center when (and in my judgment, it is only a matter of when) this favorite foray finally flails.
I am unable to grade last week’s Digital release of Volkov +285 as a winner despite the fact that he won that fight. The judges awarded the decision to Cyril Gane, but the result was simply incorrect. I feel for these athletes as their career, their livelihoods, and their earnings all depend on judges, most of whom are categorically incapable of understanding how to accurately grade UFC bouts. Choi +120 and Over -170 in that same Choi vs. Landwehr fight both cashed.
Into this final card, digital releases this year stand 28-26 +7.48u.
The next UFC card takes place on January 11. With that in mind, this column will return on January 7th with my breakdowns of the first fight slate of 2025. Let’s Fight!
Joaquin Buckley -260 vs. Colby Covington +220
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Buckley, from East St. Louis, is the eighth-ranked fighter in the division. He is short, squat, highly explosive, and profusely powerful. He enters this fight with tremendous momentum.
Buckley opened a +145 underdog for this fight to his adversary Colby Covington, but the chalk changed from Covington to Buckley in a short time.
The market seems to believe that Buckley is poised to conquer sixth-ranked Covington.
Covington enters as a highly divisive figure. Many people hate his guts, while others understand that his flakey UFC persona is simply a schtick designed to allow him to play the heel while ratcheting up the eyeballs looking in to watch him be dominant or be pulverized.
In this fight, it’s Covington who is the taller, longer athlete in the cage. He’ll have a tremendous experience angle over Buckley as well. He’s been in the cage with a far more stringent set of adversaries than his foe has.
Covington’s wrestling ability can’t be matched. Buckley’s wrestling, though developed, is not on the same plane as Covington’s. Covington uses volume striking to set up his wrestling, while Buckley utilizes his wrestling to keep fights standing so he may enter the pocket and bludgeon his opponent with power strikes/kicks.
Buckley’s strikes have violent effects on his adversaries. He’s lightning-quick and enters this fight having earned victories in his last five fights, albeit against athletes that are not elite within the division.
Once this fight begins, Buckley’s explosion and aggression will be matched against Covington’s unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The power and explosivity of Buckley’s strikes will test Covington’s unending ability to compete 100% throughout twenty-five full minutes of war.
Explosive power against stamina and guile is how I view this fight. While Buckley is the younger, faster, more violent fighter, it is Covington who I believe will force Buckley into the third round and beyond where ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all.’
Once this fight enters those later rounds, look for Covington’s guile, experience, wrestling and cardio to rule.
UFC Fight Night Tampa Best Bet: Covington +220
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rounds Over -150
Daniel Marco -160 vs. Adrian Yanez +135
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
This has the makings to be one of the top battles in the last quarter of 2024.
Yanez, of Mexican descent, is tough, durable, aggressive and enters this fight after getting back into the win column with a dominant performance over a game Vinicius Salvador.
Yanez’s father was a golden gloves boxer, so he grew up with a sturdy boxing base and added BJJ to his weaponry at an early age. He is currently a black belt in BJJ.
He fights Peruvian Daniel Marcos, who enters this fight undefeated at 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC, though that record should be 4-0.
Marcos is athletic, has fast, heavy hands, and a deliberate leg-numbing kicking attack. Each man has faced a similar level of competition. These two fight for ranking as the victor in this fight will be jettisoned into the top fifteen of an oh-so-very competitive bantamweight division.
Marcos must defend his undefeated mark, while Yanez, who lost his undefeated record two fights back, is focused solely on taking the zero away from Marcos in dominating fashion.
Do not miss this battle.
The total in this fight stands at 2.5 Rds Over -120
Joel Alvarez -350 vs. Drakkar Klose +295
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Alvarez is your typical bully as he is oversized for lightweight but cuts dynamic amounts of weight in order to hold an advantage over his adversaries in battles. He’ll be taller than Klose by four inches, five years younger, and hold a reach advantage in arms and legs.
A brown belt in BJJ with decent striking acumen, Alvarez was delivered his PhD. in MMA three fights back when Armen Tsarukyan mopped the floor with him. Since that setback, Alvarez defeated Marc Diakiese and Elves Brener, two formidable lightweight opponents.
In 35-year-old Klose, we have an athlete who explodes like a barrel packet tightly with dynamite. He’s more experienced than Alvarez and has faced solid competition on his way to this foundational fight for him.
Early in this fight, Alvarez will attempt to maintain distance and strike with Klose cautiously, then eventually try to lure him into some form of clasp to try to ground him and initiate the ground battle, for seventeen of Alvarez’s wins professionally have come via submission.
For Klose, his strategy is clear: smother the longer, taller Alvarez with unrelenting forward pressure. Back him up and batter his body with hooks, crosses, and knees. Klose must attach his forehead to Alvarez’s chest, where his inside position will make it easy for him to heave heavy power shots to the taller man’s body and then move to the chin. Klose has one job Saturday night: pressure Alvarez backward.
Styles make fights, and in this one, the tell will be distance. If Klose can manage this fight to a standing war in a phone booth, he will win. Should Alvarez be able to clasp, clinch, and ground Klose, the night will be a long one for Klose. A great clash of fighting styles.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -150
Friday at midday PT, the Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com. Access my final UFC Fight Night Tampa releases for this card there. Thank you for reading. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
