UFC Macau Predictions – Yau vs. Figueiredo:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Macau best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 4-4 (+1.22 Units, 11.96% ROI)
Article History: 104-157 (-30.27 Units, -10.43% ROI)
Since 2020: 656-621 (+186.88 Units, 10.88% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-2 (81.82%)
Article History: 232-168 (58.00%)
Petr “No Mercy” Yan (-305) vs Deiveson “Deus Da Guerra” Figueiredo (+245)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+145)
Petr Yan is a puzzle. He had a short run as the UFC’s bantamweight champion after finishing the legend Jose Aldo with ground and pound. He was DQ’d in his first title defense versus Aljamain Sterling after landing a very illegal knee to the head and lost his belt (ironically, the rule that forced the DQ has been changed and the result would have been a KO victory if the fight occurred today). While Sterling recovered from that fight, Yan fought Cory Sandhagen for an interim title and looked great. But in his rematch versus Sterling, he didn’t look like the same fighter, and Sterling unified the title via split decision. Yan then lost a controversial split decision to Sean O’Malley, and followed that up by being dominated by current champ Merab Dvalishvili. That said, he did look solid vs. Song Yadong and momentum may be back in his favor. His crisp boxing and wrestling mix came back to the forefront, and he was able to overwhelm the younger fighter.
On paper is what you expect to see out of someone who has fought for and won multiple belts. Lands over half of his significant strikes, 5.13 per minute, while also avoiding nearly 60% of the strikes coming back his way. He defends 85% of the takedowns sent his way while also landing over half the takedowns he attempts. He really does put the “mixed” in the term mixed martial arts. Perhaps the only slight in his skill set is that he is more of a volume striker than someone with pure one-punch knockout power. He also is mostly a position wrestler and virtually never attempts submissions. That said, no one is perfect, and as far as having the right skills to excel in this game goes, Yan passes the test with flying colors.
Deiveson Figueiredo is perhaps the most dangerous flyweight of all time. His run to the belt was legendary as he finished four opponents in a row on his way to holding the strap. He is an equal opportunity assailant with 24 pro wins, with nine via submission and nine via knockout. That said, he always struggled to make weight at 125 pounds, and now deep into his 30s, he opted to move onto new opportunities. He ended his flyweight career with four consecutive title fights against Brandon Moreno, a series in which he went 1-2-1. However, since moving up to bantamweight, he has looked vintage, going 3-0, with my one real complaint being that his extraordinary flyweight power is perhaps not quite as overwhelming when facing 135-pounders. He does have one finish in this division via submission versus Cody Garbrandt.
Statistically, Figueiredo lags behind Yan in virtually every category. He is less accurate, has a worse defense rate (but gets hit less overall), and has worse takedown accuracy and defense. However, he is more willing to be taken down because he is very dangerous with his jiu jitsu, and he attempts one submission per 10 minutes in the octagon on average. He also grades out to be the better pure power puncher.
Yan is nearly five full years younger than Figueiredo and two inches taller. Figueiredo has a one-inch reach advantage. I cannot wait to see how ground exchanges play out in this fight, and I am interested to see if Yan is willing to grapple because to win this fight, his clearest path is point fighting on the feet. I am also interested in seeing Figueiredo’s gas tank, which was a bit of a liability when he was cutting down to 125 pounds, but at 135, he has looked better in later rounds. At the end of the day, this is a champion versus champion matchup and I am not 100% sold on this version of Yan being the guy who once wore the strap. The price is too good on Figueiredo.
FIGHT WINNER: Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Deiveson Figueiredo (+245) vs Yan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.45
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Yan “Nine” Xiaonan (-198) vs Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci (+164)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-500) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+340)
Yan Xiaonan is 8-3 in the UFC but her last fight was a title shot versus her countrywoman Weili Zhang. She lost the decision, but she was game for most of that fight and showed well. That loss did not lower her stock, and overall all three of her UFC losses are respectable (Marina Rodriguez, Carla Esparza). She is not much of a finishing threat, seven of her eight UFC wins have gone to the scorecards. She is a volume striker but not necessarily accurate. Her grappling game is solid but not standout for this division.
Tabatha Ricci is 6-2 in the UFC and 6-1 in her last seven fights. She lost her UFC debut to Manon Fiorot and a split decision to the always-game Lupita Godinez. Her key wins have come versus veterans Jessica Penne, Tecia Pennington, Gillian Robertson, and Angela Hill. Ricci’s striking metrics lag behind Yan’s in basically every category. However, she is a much more active grappler who employs a volume game to land nearly three for every fifteen minutes in the cage.
This fight is closer on paper than the odds would indicate, but I do think the venue heavily favors Yan. She also has faced more high-level UFC competition than Ricci over the course of her career.
FIGHT WINNER: Yan Xiaonan
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Yan Xiaonan to win via decision (-120) vs Ricci, Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
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Song “The Assassin” Kenan (+154) vs Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Song Kenan is 6-4 in the UFC. All six of his wins have come versus fighters who are no longer in the organization. That said, all four of his losses are versus accomplished UFC fighters: Kevin Jousset, Ian Garry, Max Griffin, and Alex Morono. His brawler style makes for extremely entertaining fights, but he is also a limited mixed martial artist who gets taken down more often than he lands. Additionally, he gets hit far too much, and his strike differential is -1.27.
Muslim Salikhov is an aging fighter but his karate striking style means he is still dangerous. Additionally he has at least a moderate level of comfort with grappling and has been able to take down opponents in the past when they least expect it. The 40 year old is just 2-3 in his last five fights. However, the opponents that have been able to edge him out have had a distinct reach advantage or were able to impose a dominant ground game. Overall, his striking defense stands out. Only 37% of his opponent’s significant strikes land.
Taking a 40 year old in a hostile environment is a tough proposition, but I truly believe Salkhov’s defense and more diverse skill set will win the day.
FIGHT WINNER: Muslim Salkihov
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Wang “The Joker” Cong (-950) vs Gabriella “Gabi” Fernandes (+625)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Wang Cong is one of the latest kickboxing champions to make the jump to mixed martial arts. Her kickboxing credentials are elite, and she was the last opponent Valentina Schevchenko faced before coming over to MMA. Cong won that bout, and if she continues to take care of business in the UFC, there could be a rematch in their future. She got her intro to the organization at Road to UFC in May of this year. She won via first-round mounted guillotine choke. She made her official UFC debut in August versus Victoria Leonardo and won via KO in 62 seconds. Her trajectory can be meteoric if she continues at this pace.
Gabriella Fernandes is 9-3 as a pro and 1-2 in the UFC. The former LFA champion was a slight favorite in her UFC debut versus Jasmine Jasudavicius and lost via decision. She followed that up with a decision loss as the underdog versus Tereza Bleda. Most recently, she fought Carli Judice in June and won via split decision as a -165 favorite. She has massive defensive red flags, getting hit 5.56 times per minute with significant strikes and avoiding less than half that are thrown. This fight is picture perfect for Wang Cong to win via finish, and unless Fernandes forces grappling, Cong will win with her strikes.
FIGHT WINNER: Wang Cong
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Wang Cong to Win via Knockout (+250) vs Fernandes, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
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Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir (+195) vs Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg (-238)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Volkan Oezdemir has quietly put together an impressive UFC career. He is 8-6 in the organization, and nearly all of his losses come from fighters who have won or fought for the UFC’s light heavyweight belt. He is currently on a two-fight win streak and has won three of his last four fights. He knocked out Johnny Walker in June, and submitted Bogdan Guskov last September. He has great power in his strikes, but his grappling game is perhaps underrated and his ability to mix things up is why he has been able to defeat dangerous opponents like Aleksandar Rakic and Paul Craig.
Carlos Ulberg has been on the rise since he made his UFC debut during the COVID era. He had a “Welcome to the UFC” moment versus Kennedy Nzechukwu in March 2021 in which he dominated early and gassed himself out trying to get a finish, ultimately getting knocked out. Since that fight, he is 6-0 and on a four-fight finish streak. He fought Alonzo Menifield in May and was able to get the job done with strikes in just 12 seconds. Ulberg’s striking volume is an outlier for someone in the light heavyweight division, landing 7.41 strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.6. Additionally, his training at City Kickboxing in New Zealand has paid off, and his 75% takedown defense rate is impressive for someone who came to MMA after a kickboxing career.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Ulberg
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Parlay- Carlos Ulberg/Muslim Salikhov (+118), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.18
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Ozzy Diaz (+270) vs Zhang “Mountain Tiger” Mingyang (-340)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+185) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-245)
Ozzy Diaz is making his UFC debut after a solid career in smaller organizations. He made his major MMA debut in Bellator in 2019, and he went 2-0 with two finishes. More recently, he has been fighting in LFA and is 4-0 in that organization. He did fight in Contender Series and was knocked out by Joe Pyfer, who has proven to be a worthy member of the UFC roster. He is 9-2 overall, with seven knockout victories and two wins via submission. Both of his losses have been via KO.
Zhang Mingyang is 17-6 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC and 1-0 in Road to UFC. He is currently on a 10-fight winning streak, with all of those victories coming via knockout. All 17 of his career victories have come inside the distance, and five of his six losses have come before the final bell. In limited officially tracked minutes, Mingyang’s stats jump off the page.
FIGHT WINNER: Zhang Mingyang
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Mingyang/Diaz Fight Does Not Start Round 2 (-160), Risk 1.6 Units to Win 1
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SuYoung “Yoo-Jitsu” You (-170) vs Baergeng Jieleyisi (+142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
SuYoung You is making his UFC debut after winning two in a row on Road to UFC. Both of those fights went to the judges’ scorecards. Overall, he is 13-3 as a pro with three knockouts, five submissions and five decision wins. He has been knocked out once, with his other two losses coming on the scorecards. Baergeng Jieleyisi is also a Road to UFC veteran, but it took him two goes at the feeder program before he earned his shot. He lost a split decision in 2023, and he came back with two victories in 2024 to earn his shot on this card. Overall, he is 19-5 with five wins via knockout, nine via submission, and four via decision. He has been finished in three of his losses.
FIGHT WINNER: SuYoung You
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Pass
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Kiru Sahota (-115) vs DongHun Choi (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Kiru Sahota is another Road to the UFC veteran who fought his way onto this fight card. He is based in England and fights on Manchester Top Team alongside Lerone Murphy. His pre-UFC competition is less than impressive. In Road to UFC, he was an accurate striker but very poor defensively. He is extremely tall for the flyweight division at 5’10”. DongHun Choi won two split decisions on Road to UFC. He is four years younger than Sahota and five inches shorter. His 66-inch reach will be seven inches shorter than that of Sahota. He lacks legitimate experience but is 8-0, exclusively versus fairly low-level competition.
FIGHT WINNER: DongHun Choi
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Pass
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Feng Xiaocan (-410) vs Shi “Doctor” Ming (+320)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-475) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+325)
Feng Xiaocan is making her UFC debut with a 10-2 record. She has four wins via knockout and one via submission. She is on an eight-fight winning streak. She is 22 years old and has the potential to grow in this organization as long as she does not squander this opportunity. Shi Ming is 30 years old and just 5’2” with a diminutive 60-inch reach.
FIGHT WINNER: Feng Xiaocan
UFC MACAU BEST BET: PASS
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Carlos Hernandez (-185) vs Nyamjargal “Art of Knockout” Tumendemberel (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Carlos Hernandez is 2-3 in the UFC and entering the octagon on a two-fight losing streak. His best win is probably against Daniel Barez in Contender Series. That said, he has had tough opponents in his losses to Rei Tsuruya, Tatsuro Taira, and Allan Nascimento. Overall, he is 9-4. He has never won via knockout and has four wins via submission. Nyamjargal Temendemberel is representing Mongolia and 8-0. He won both of his Road to UFC fights as a near pick ’em. Two of his wins have come via KO. One has come via submission. I think Tumendemberel is the more aggressive and dangerous fighter. He attempted submissions early and often in Road to UFC, and Hernandez’s propensity to wrestle could lead to danger.
FIGHT WINNER: Nyamjargal Temendemberel
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Pass
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Lone’er Kavanagh (-395) vs Jose “Kalzifer” Ochoa (+310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Lone’er Kavanagh was one of the brightest prospects on the most recent season of Contender Series. He is 7-0 as a pro and was 4-0 in Cage Warriors before getting his UFC shot. Five of his wins are via KO, two are via decision. He is just 25 years old with a bright future if he can keep his impressive finish rate despite being just a 125-pounder. Jose Ochoa is also undefeated at 7-0 and is making the jump to this UFC card after winning via submission in LFA. Overall, he has a 100% finish rate, with six wins coming with strikes. At just 23 years old, he is just scratching the surface of his potential. He also is on Chute Boxe Diego Lima, the same team as Charles Oliveira, so his pedigree should not be underestimated.
Finishing potential for this fight is immense, but there is a chance that both guys are going to be sharing the cage with the toughest opponent of their career. Both fighters are so early in their careers, I can’t make any bold proclamations about their abilities.
FIGHT WINNER: Lone’er Kavanagh
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Pass
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Xiao Long (-148) vs Quang “Bang” Le (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220)| Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
Xiao Long has taken the long road to the UFC. He is 0-1 in the organization after earning the right to be on the roster on Road to UFC. Early in his career, he lost a fight on a ONE card, and he also lost on Contender Series versus Cristian Quinonez. His UFC debut versus Chang Ho Lee was a highly contested split decision loss. His resilience is impressive, but he has also gotten more bites at the apple than most when it comes to getting a chance to get a win in the coveted UFC Octagon. Quang Le made his UFC debut versus Chris Gutierrez in early August. He held his own and took a round versus the UFC veteran in the decision loss. Prior to that, he was on a four-fight winning streak in LFA. Five of his eight wins have come via finish. MMA math is an inexact science, but Le looked much better than Long in his UFC debut.
FIGHT WINNER: Quang Le
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Quang Le (+124) vs Long, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
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Maheshate Hayisaer (-192) vs Nikolas “Iron” Motta (+160)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Maheshate is 2-2 in the UFC, but his UFC debut KO victory versus Steve Garcia has aged like a fine wine (Garcia has now won five consecutive fights via KO). That said, he was knocked out by Viacheslav Borshchev and lost a decision versus Rafa Garcia. His most recent win came via split decision versus Gabriel Benitez. Overall, he is 10-3, and at just 24 years old, he has the potential to do big things in this organization if he can stay consistent. Nikolas Motta is 2-2, 1 NC in the UFC. His most recent fight was a major upset win versus Tom Nolan via first-round KO as a +275 underdog. Both fighters have sub-35 % striking accuracy rates and sub-53 % striking defense rates. There will be chins exposed and opportunities to finish on both sides.
FIGHT WINNER: Mahesahte
UFC MACAU BEST BET: Pass
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UFC MACAU BEST BETS RECAP:
– Deiveson Figueiredo (+245) vs Yan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.45
– Yan Xiaonan to win via decision (-120) vs Ricci, Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
– Wang Cong to Win via Knockout (+250) vs Fernandes, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.5
– Parlay- Carlos Ulberg/Muslim Salikhov (+118), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.18
– Zhang/Diaz Fight Does Not Start Round 2 (-160), Risk 1.6 Units to Win 1
– Quang Le (+124) vs Long, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.24
