UFC Qatar Predictions:
Three fight slates remain in the UFC for the 2025 campaign. This week, they travel to Qatar for a Fight Night event featuring fourteen scheduled bouts. The UFC will use the 30-foot cage for this event, which will be populated with thousands of area fans looking to cheer their Muslim brethren to victory over a highly international set of skilled adversaries.
Favorites now stand 299-148-15 in the UFC this year (64.6%).
Last week, I split positions with Weili Zhang, Zhang was simply dominated by Valentina Shevchenko, which cost us a couple of units of loss. The parlay of Makhachev/Nickal cashed, however, earning 1.05u.
Three cards remain, and the plan is to close the year down with fervor!
Also, please note: this fight card starts Saturday, 7 a.m. PT with early prelims!
Arman Tsarukyan -500 vs. Dan Hooker +400
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Arman Tsarukyan is a gifted, durable, imposing mixed martial artist who uses vice-grip pressure wrestling to overcome his short stature and lack of length.
A power striker who must enter the pocket on opponents to unleash power strikes, kicks and elbows, Tsarukyan chooses to work his way into the pocket, then soften adversaries up with a few shots so he can immediately drag them down to the floor for a flogging.
Tsarukyan’s wrestling is as developed and effective as any in the lightweight division. His striking is complete enough to allow him to gain inside position in order to clasp, press and floor opponents.
Tsarukyan’s striking, while power-based, is also a great weapon for him as he realizes a +1.98 significant strike advantage while still being able to floor anyone in the lightweight division. His takedown defense is world-class, and his aggression, coupled with his developed fight arsenal, make him a legitimate elite talent in the division.
Tsarukyan missed weight in his title opportunity against Islam Makhachev this past January, which did not endear him to the UFC brass, to say the least. This is why he has been shelved for some nine months awaiting a fight.
In Australian Dan Hooker, Tsarukan takes on one of the few fighters in the division who is undaunted by his name, his fight game, and his wrestling-heavy aggression.
Hooker, now 35, is not nearly the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is quite experienced in the UFC. He’ll be the taller man by five inches and will sport a three-inch reach advantage over the forward pressing wrestler from Armenia.
Hooker’s kickboxing is elite. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Hooker enters this firefight after earning victories in his last three fights—the last two against top-ranked lightweights, in which he earned split decision victories.
In his last win, Hooker defeated one Mateusz Gamrot, whose size, strength, aggression, wrestling ability, and body type are almost exactly the same as Tsarukyan’s. He just does not possess the striking power that Tsarukyan brings into any fight.
I cannot think of a better precursor to Tsarukyan for a mixed martial artist than Gamrot. I consider Hooker ready, able, and more than willing to go into this fight believing he can and will win, but his age and the amount of attrition he has accumulated over his now 11-plus years in the UFC fighting elite competition have me feeling that he’ll be fodder for his Armenian attacker.
Tsarukyan is the worthy favorite here. I would look to the prop market to find value on the favorite here.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Under -130
Ian Machado Garry -235 vs. Belal Muhammad +195
Welterweight (170 pounds) co-main event
Former welterweight champion Muhammad is a world-class wrestling-based fighter with advanced grappling acumen, complemented by unending cardio. Muhammad’s conditioning and unrelenting forward pressure allow the former champion to break down opponents via incessant, constant, forceful pressure.
Muhammad’s striking is an area of improvement that he must address, though Muhammad will tell you he can strike with anyone. Ask Jack Della Maddalena if that is the case!
In actuality, when Muhammad is fighting at his peak, he uses his striking only long enough to set up his forte, which is wrestling.
Any attempt by Muhammad to utilize his striking/kicking as a foundation to earn victory in any top ten UFC welterweight bout will result in him being exposed as he was in his last fight by Jack Della Maddalena. We saw Maddalena was dominated last week by Islam Makhachev, who wrestled JDM from bell to bell, pillar to post.
Had Muhammad employed the same wrestling-focused tactic in his battle against JDM, he would be defending his belt on this card as opposed to having to face an extremely dangerous and highly athletic adversary in Ian Machado Garry.
In Garry, we have an extremely well-rounded mixed martial artist who is going to realize substantial height, reach and age differences in this matchup. Garry is the more adroit, nimble, athletic fighter between these two. He sports an 11-year age advantage in this matchup.
Garry’s striking is not power-based, but his ability to strike fluidly from every angle and position, coupled with his deft footwork, allows him to maintain the distance he needs to shred opponents with volume striking with unending volume. Garry’s grappling and wrestling are also world-class as he is a black belt in Judo.
Muhammad must employ his forceful, patented, unrelenting wrestling pressure to enter the pocket. From inside position, he’ll attempt to clasp onto the long, tall Irishman and commence the clasp, the clinch, and the takedown.
Garry’s style makes that ‘enter the pocket at all costs’ tactic a near impossibility for his athleticism and long, lanky body type, coupled with his fluidity of movement, makes it most difficult for adversaries to be able to cut the cage on him, then, even more difficult, back him into the fence to try to clinch him up.
I handicap Muhammad to be made for Garry in this contrast of fighting styles. Muhammad’s success will be founded on his cardio and wrestling, while Garry’s advantages will come from his athleticism, well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry, and his ability to make himself a difficult athlete to catch up to, let alone clock.
Muhammad’s wrestling, his cardio, and the strength of his mentality may see him make it through all five rounds; however, Garry’s balanced attack, laced with an aggressive, yet evasive foundation, makes him the legitimate favorite in this clash of fighting styles.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -315
I believe this total may move to 4.5 Rds.
This week’s release is what I consider to be another favorite-laden fight card:
This week’s wager is a parlay:
UFC Qatar Best Bet: Tsarukyan ‘to win via any finish’ -150/Garry Decision -120
1u returns 2.05u
Friday, early a.m., the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the early Saturday morning hostilities!
