UFC Shanghai Predictions:
From the epic production that was the violence-filled UFC 319, we go to a more boutique Fight Night event! This week’s UFC Shanghai will kick off at Midnight PT with the preliminary card, followed by the main card at 3 a.m. PT.
There are 12 bouts currently scheduled for this Shanghai fight card, and a large cage will be in use. A full house of Chinese fight fans, eager to enjoy mixed martial arts battles, will be present. They are as passionate as any fanbase anywhere.
We’ll see five bouts where a greater than five-year age difference exists between combatants. This is important to understand, as athletes six years younger or more have historically realized a 62% win advantage.
There are six local Chinese athletes featured on the card, and they face a smattering of athletes from across the globe. In almost every case, the local/regional athlete is presented with advantage, because they face opponents five or more years older than they.
In four of the five fights where there is a five-year or greater age difference, it is the local Chinese athletes who are the beneficiaries of that advantage.
There are five ‘big boi’ fights where men weighing 170 pounds or more compete. These fights often end in or with a finish.
The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing (presenting local area athletes with a relatively advantageous opponent situation) when it exports its product outside the U.S., as its zeal to expand the brand is unquenchable.
Last week, I rode with the defending middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis, believing he would bully his opponent, the favored Kamzat Chimaev, in their title bout. I could not have been more incorrect. Chimaev made DDP look like he had never competed in a wrestling competition, as well as making me look like I have not been handicapping fights for some forty-five plus years!
On we go!
To date, digital results stand: 16-19 -1.47u
Zhang Mingyang -340 vs. Johnny Walker +290
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) main event
Brazilian Walker was training in Ireland and has now relocated his training to Xtreme Courture in Las Vegas. Walker is the 13th-ranked fighter in the division. He is a brown belt in BJJ and an extremely dangerous, powerful striker. Walker is highly athletic and unusually structured for a light heavyweight talent.
Finding athletes who are keenly coordinated, nimble on their feet, and who possess natural, God-given power is rare in combat sports. Still, Walker has the tools to destroy any adversary in any fight and at any time.
Walker’s 6’5” frame, coupled with his dynamic litheness, are facets that opposing fighters all struggle with. Walker is aggressive, able to move with fluidity, and he’s extraordinarily strong and powerful with all his striking weaponry.
What Walker struggles with is an inability to take a flush fist to the face. That shortcoming has cost Walker his position within the division’s elite.
Since 2023, Walker has an 0-2-1 mark in the UFC. His lack of ability to evade power strikes is something he must address one way or another, because if he could employ his athleticism to evade incoming power punches more effectively, he would be better suited to realize success and dynamic, violent success at that.
At the heart of the issue for Walker is his inability to absorb legitimate light heavyweight strikes to his head. Since 2019, Walker has lost six of 11 fights, and in all six losses, he was knocked unconscious.
Trying to navigate a ‘balsa wood beak’ in today’s light heavyweight division of the UFC is close to an impossible task, which is why Walker, who is well-equipped in all aspects of mixed martial arts, is the sizable underdog he is to this relatively novice athlete Zhang, who has but three UFC battles under his belt.
It is my judgment that Walker has been placed in this position to serve as ‘patsy’ for Zhang in this fight because Walker’s lack of ability to take a knock to the nose feeds right into Zhang’s strength, which is power striking.
In the aforementioned Mingyang Zhang, we have a relatively new, developing UFC talent. Zhang is used to being the taller, longer athlete in the cage. For this fight, he will have to navigate Walker’s size, length, kicking acumen, experience, and profuse punching power.
Zhang is a fighter who began to refine his Sanda fighting style/expertise in a Shaolin Monastery as a youth, developing his craft. (Sanda is a Chinese martial art that combines kicking, striking, and grappling.) Eventually, he earned a blue belt in BJJ to complement his expertise. Today, Zhang arrives as the next big, hyped athlete in the UFC from China.
While Zhang is a heavy favorite for this battle, I believe that Walker’s experience, his size, length, and razor-sharp striking style will provide him plenty of opportunity to shine in this fight.
The ultra-athletic Walker must evade the slow, telegraphed power strikes from Zhang, who is nowhere near as nimble afoot or athletic as Walker. Walker stands in great position to be able to defeat a man much less athletically equipped than he. However, should Walker incur one or more power strikes from Zhang, he is liable to crumple to the floor like a dropped bag of sand.
The price screams for me to give Walker a chance in this spot, but Walker’s porcelain chin forces me to think twice about backing him.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -300
That total verifies that one man is going to potentially bludgeon the other. Which man clobbers and which man gets clobbered, I am not certain, but what I am feeling confident about is the Over and more particularly the prop ‘fight starts round 2’ which will be out later this week.
Lone’er Kavanagh -205 vs. Charles Johnson +180
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Kavanagh is 9-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. The Englishman is short, squat, powerful and well-rounded, for he can wrestle.
Johnson arrives to China off a loss in his last bout after rattling off four straight UFC wins prior. He has numerous physical advantages in this fight. He is the taller man by five inches. He sports a three-inch reach advantage with both legs and arms. Johnson also owns advantage in the level of competition faced and, of course, UFC experience.
Once the bell for this fight rings, the test for Kavanagh will be to penetrate Johnson’s length/striking to earn his way inside the pocket, where he can mute Johnson’s striking prowess while doing damage to the longer, taller fighter via his power striking and kicks.
For Johnson, this fight is all about distance and whether he can maintain it appropriately and by all means keep this fight standing so he can execute a plan that entails ‘painting Kavanagh’s fence’ as the shorter Englishman attempts to work his way inside.
These two men are flyweight athletes vying in a large cage, which often means a decision fight. Proof of that statement is evidenced by this fight’s total, which is currently lined 2.5Rds Over -335!
That total attests to the fact that this fight will be like watching two wasps warring in a mason jar. At the end of the day, Johnson’s experience, size, and length make the difference here, as well as the fact he can be captured as an underdog.
UFC Shanghai Best Bet: Charles Johnson +180
The ‘Bout Business’ Podcast will have all my final releases available sometime Friday before midday PT. Remember fight fans, this card kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning PT, so be prepared to enjoy a little OJ with your Omaplata! Thank you for reading, and enjoy the bouts!
