UFC 302 Best Bets
Welcome to my UFC best bets for the week. UFC 302 from Newark, NJ, drops this Saturday with early preliminary action starting at 3:15 pm PT, prelims beginning at 5 pm PT, and the PPV slate kicking off at 7 pm PT.
To date, in 2024, favorites are running a torrid 139-65-4 or 66.8%, which is abnormally high as yearly averages in the UFC hover around 63+/- percent. For digital investors, profitability stands at 13-9 +7.73u for the year.
This week’s PPV offers twelve scheduled bouts. Eight of the twelve fights are welterweight or larger men competing which translates into finishing potential in the 59% range historically. Fighters competing at the lighter 155 pounds and smaller weight classes finish at just above fifty-one percent.
The UFC will employ the larger thirty-foot octagon as well, we have six athletes that are from or currently train in the Jersey area featured on this card. Let’s look at our UFC best bets.
Islam Makhachev -675 vs. Dustin Poirier +500
Lightweight (155 pounds) Championship
Champion Makhachev, of Dagestani descent and a member of the famous team headed by former UFC GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov, is not only the undisputed lightweight champion but is also recognized as the organization’s mythical pound-for-pound champion.
Makhachev is in his fighting prime at 32 years of age. He is decorated with a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and employs a forward-pressing, aggressive striking attack complimented by world-class wrestling/grappling pressure.
He is dominant anywhere a fight may go, and he is undefeated in his professional career save for a KO at the hands of Adriano Martins in his sophomore UFC bout back in 2015.
His opponent, the renowned Dustin Poirier, is now 35 years old. He realizes and has stated publicly that this third attempt at the belt is most likely his last title attempt not to mention it may well be his last professional bout. Poirier, 30-8 with one NC has faced the absolute elite of the lightweight division over the course of his 17-year professional career.
A seasoned striker with profuse power and a granite chin, Poirier looks to bludgeon opponents with a combination of strikes, kicks, knees, and elbows. A Black belt in BJJ, Poirier is a solid grappler; however, the one chink in his armor has been his propensity of being submitted by world-class grappling talents. This has been displayed by both Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov in both of Poirier’s previous lightweight title attempts.
Poirier understands what kind of force he is facing in this bout, for Nurmagomedov remains the coach and mentor to Makhachev and will be in his corner Saturday night.
Once this fight begins, I believe Makhachev will attempt to compete with Poirier on the feet only long enough for him and his team to realize that his greatest advantage is not striking but grappling. Standing up against the wily Poirier provides Poirier with his best opportunity for an upset.
Once Makhachev commits to unrelenting forward grappling/wrestling pressure, the fight will be defined by either Makhachev grounding Poirier and dominating him from a top position or Poirier being able to time one of Makhachev’s entries and flush him with an uppercut or straight knee.
This fight will highlight Makhachev’s unrelenting pressure and iron will, just as it will highlight Poirier’s focus on finishing the forward-pressing Dagestani athlete with a devastating blow.
This fight will be decided one of two ways: Makhachev via submission, currently priced at -125, or Poirier via KO/TKO/DQ, currently priced at +750.
Total in this fight opened 1.5 Over -160 but was quickly bet up to its current 2.5 Rds Under -160.
This total was mispriced at open and is now fairly positioned according to my handicapping.
Sean Strickland -240 vs. Paulo Costa +205
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
In this five-round of co-main event, we have two of the most inconsistent fighters to handicap in the organization, let alone the weight class.
Seventh-ranked Brazilian Costa is power personified. He throws improvisational elbows, knees, and spinning heel kicks in order to surprise adversaries and render them unconscious.
A Black Belt in BJJ, Costa’s physique seems chiseled out of granite. He employs explosive offensive capability behind his flamboyant striking attack. Costa has shown more aptitude early in fights as an aggressive, forward-pressing bully than later in fights when the bout becomes arduous, and his bully nature is straight-on confronted by opponents unwilling to fold under his front-running style.
Costa’s physicality is his strength; however, his mentality has shown itself to be uneven, inconsistent, and his kryptonite, especially against the top level of middleweight competition.
We have another mental ‘live wire’ in ex-champion Strickland. Strickland is a trash-talking natural-born fighter who inflicts his damage with volume striking/kicking while verbally badgering opponents throughout his incessant attack.
Strickland is extremely strong mentally but can, at times, be overtaken by his ego, which results in his inability to stick to the designated plan of attack. Strickland has made highly questionable choices in fights by being willing to compete against opponents at their strength rather than applying his advantage to compromise his foe.
Once the bell to round one rings, I see Costa attempting to ‘light up’ Strickland immediately with destructive power shots while Strickland will look to jab, be evasive and throw combinations while maintaining striking angles. He will strive to pepper the incoming brazen Brazilian with precision striking while using his footwork to maintain distance to land effectively.
Should he remain on plan, Strickland will function like a matador in a bullfight, while Costa has only one way…. the raging beast.
Provided Strickland remains on plan and that’s exactly what coach Eric Nicksick will demand, then I see Strickland slaying Costa over the course of rounds as Costa does not possess the diversity of attack nor the mental fortitude and cardio to maintain his energy against a crazoid like Strickland.
UFC: Best Bet: Strickland -240 is part one of this week’s parlay release….
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Under -135
Jailton Almeida -270 vs. Alexander Romanov +195
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Thirteenth-ranked heavyweight freestyle wrestler Romanov is a massive man who cuts twenty pounds to make the UFC’s 265-pound heavyweight limit.
The mauler from Moldova has immense strength and employs a Sumo-styled attack to force opponents against the fence and then eventually onto the floor, where he can attempt to gain top position and then smother adversaries.
Should Romanov capture the top position in any bout, he is one tough Moldovan to manage. That stated, Romanov is as slow as evolution, and though he delivers profuse power with his strikes and kicks, they are telegraphed. Further, his ability to fire fresh or maintain any form of threat striking after four or five minutes is squelched by his lack of cardio and massive girth.
To imagine the opposite-styled fighter from Romanov, we would picture his opponent Saturday night in Brazilian Jailton Almeida, the seventh-ranked heavyweight in the division.
Almeida was once a lethal welterweight, middleweight then light heavyweight but was unable to actively compete in the UFC’s light heavyweight division because there were no athletes willing to step into the octagon against him.
From 205 pounds, Almeida has steadily increased his body structure into what now is best described as an extremely athletic, diversly talented, quick, explosive yet undersized 245-pound heavyweight talent.
As Angelo Dundee would chime, “Styles make fights,” and in this duel, we will have a plodding Moldovan polar bear stammering forward to attempt to engage and clasp onto a fluid-moving, nimble tactician of a fighter in Almeida who can accrue damage with his striking but also possesses immense grappling strength.
Almeida put on a grappling display in his last outing by manhandling fourth-ranked Curtis Blaydes in the first round of their bout this past March before a lack of judgment cost him that fight.
Once this fight begins, it is my belief that Almeida will utilize more patience than he did in his last fight and be more meticulous in his approach to maintain distance in this fight and systematically shred Romanov.
By employing movement and athleticism, Almeida will force the massive Romanov to utilize his precious energy, attempting to catch up to Almeida and then try to squeeze the strength from him should he succeed.
Almeida’s nimble movement, speed, skill and unusual strength together will forge this fight into the second round where Romanov will transition from a fresh and willing power wrestler to a plodding, unathletic zombie.
From the second-round forward Almeida will dominate the Moldovan athlete and eventually finish him in the third round or earn victory in a one-sided decision.
UFC Best Bet: Almeida -270 parlayed to Strickland -240
An outlay of 1.06 units returns 1.0 units.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -125
UFC Best Bet: Strong lean over
Fresh off a 6-0 run in UFC LV92, the ‘Bout Business Podcast rolls into Friday’s fights off profitability in two straight UFC cards. Look for the podcast at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
