UFC 303 Best Bets:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC 303 card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket and offer his UFC best bets.
BET HISTORY
UFC Saudi Arabia : 2-6 (-4.6 Units, -46.84%)
Article History: 52-65 (-5.93 Units, -4.58%)
PICK ’EM HISTORY
UFC Vegas 93: 4-7 (36.4%)
Article History: 106-80 (56.99%)
MAIN EVENT:
Alex “Poatan” Pereira (-148) vs Jiri “BJP” Prochazka (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Some thought Alex Pereira was a gimmick when he joined the UFC roster. A kickboxing specialist who would hopefully win a few fights and get the opportunity to lose spectacularly in a grudge match vs. Israel Adesanya. That simple thinking could not have been more wrong. Pereira has proven that he is an elite mixed martial artist and has earned a spot in the UFC Hall of Fame in just eight fights. Half of his fights in the UFC have had a belt on the line, and nothing about his record is fake or fabricated. Maybe he had a few easier fights to start his career, but his last six fights have been against fighters who have worn a UFC championship belt.
He moved up to light heavyweight from middleweight and really didn’t skip a beat. The power in his hands is still as devastating as ever; he can still shut down opponents’ motion with powerful, low leg kicks, and he is still absurdly strong and hard to hold on the ground on the rare occasions he gets taken down. He was a villain and a boogeyman when he entered the UFC, now he is one of the organization’s most beloved fighters despite not speaking English and not overcompensating with outside of the cage antics. Pereira’s left hook is unmatched, and it has been the genesis of half of his eight career knockout victories.
Jiri Prochazka is essentially a comic book character. He was a troubled youth who found mixed martial arts and completely changed his life. He eats, sleeps, and breathes mixed martial arts, living an old-school samurai life of peace and training. Despite having a respectful and reserved demeanor, his style in the cage is anything but boring. He is one of the organization’s most aggressive fighters with relentless pressure in standup and grappling. Many fighters claim to have a “kill or be killed” mentality. When Jiri says it, he means it. Like Pereira, he took the organization by storm and rose to the top about as fast as possible, winning the light heavyweight championship in his third UFC fight versus Pereira’s coach and mentor, Glover Teixeira. However, unlike Pereira, his MMA pedigree was well established as he was a RIZIN light heavyweight champion before entering the octagon.
I love backing both of these fighters, but choosing one of them to lose is no fun. That said, I have some concerns about Jiri’s health. The man deals a ton of damage and takes nearly the same amount. The first time he fought Pereira, it was perhaps a case of him returning to the cage too soon after sustaining a severe training injury. Like Pereira, he fought on the UFC 300 card and came out with a knockout victory. However, on that card two and a half months ago, Pereira ate 12 significant strikes, including one to the head; Prochazka, on the other hand, received 58 significant strikes, 34 to the head, and they were every bit “significant.” Beyond the short turnaround presumably being tougher on Prochazka than Pereira, there are also the stats from their complete bodies of work. Prochazka absorbs nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Pereira, and his strike defense rate is 9% worse. He is also a less accurate striker and assuredly less powerful.
FIGHT WINNER: Alex Pereira
UFC 303 Best Bet: Alex Pereira (-148), Risk 1.48 Unit to Win 1
–
CO-MAIN EVENT:
Brian “T-City” Ortega (+114) vs. Diego Lopes (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Brian Ortega is the forgotten man in the UFC’s featherweight division. He is 16-3 as a professional mixed martial artist, with his three losses all being to the best of the best: title-challenging defeats vs. Max Holloway and Alex Volkanovski, and a shoulder injury loss to Yair Rodriguez, which he avenged in his most recent bout. He is known for his top-tier Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but you cannot sleep on his striking, as he has three knockout victories in the UFC and four submissions. On paper, his striking numbers look to be very bad, but absorbing 214 significant strikes from Volkanovski and 290 vs. Max Holloway is going to have an effect on the stat sheet. He will chase takedowns in this fight, and the fight is likely to be determined by his success, or lack thereof, in grappling.
Diego Lopez is 3-1 in the UFC, but his loss was a short-notice bout vs. the undefeated Movsar Evloev. He showed well in defeat, and many prognosticators think you can make a case for Lopez, in fact, winning on the scorecards. Since then, he has three first-round finishes, two via KO and one submission. He has wasted no time building a fanbase with an aggressive style and highlight finishes. That said, Brian Ortega is far and away the most dangerous opponent Lopes has seen at this point in his career. His last three opponents, Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker, helped build his confidence. Still, I am not sure they did much to prepare him for facing a UFC championship-level opponent.
I am a little surprised that Lopez is the favorite in this fight. Knowing a little bit about how lines are made and how statistics are factored in, I can see it, but Ortega’s striking metrics look worse than they are. Lopes thinks this fight is a stepping stone towards him getting a title shot, but I tend to believe it will be what Ortega needs to get in the title shot conversation
FIGHT WINNER: Brian Ortega
UFC 303 Best Bet: Brian Ortega (+114), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
–
Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (+120) vs Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
In his last fight, Smith found motivation in being the underdog versus a young, untested fighter in Vitor Petrino. He won via first-round guillotine and silenced his doubters. This is a bit of a different situation. Roman Dolidze is coming off back-to-back losses and largely looked lost in his Majority Decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov. Anthony Smith is a true mixed martial artist. He has put in the time and taken the hard path to UFC stardom. He has 56 professional fights, with only his last 22 coming in the UFC. He joined the organization as a replacement opponent in 2016 and is now one of the more recognizable light heavyweights in the world. Smith has been an underdog in 12 of his fights and has won six of them. As a favorite, he is 7-3. Only six of his 22 fights in the UFC have gone the distance.
Roman Dolidze had some momentum in 2022. He won three fights inside the distance as an underdog. However, in early 2023, he was, by most accounts, robbed of a decision win versus Marvin Vettori and then looked lost earlier this year in February versus Nassourdine Imavov. His greatest strength is raw power. He does not have hand speed or a sophisticated striking game. He is a grappler with excellent top control and devastating ground and pound.
Trying to envision how this fight plays out is interesting because I’m not sure if Anthony Smith wants this fight to get on the ground. He has a great defensive guard, but getting into a position for that to matter would likely come at the expense of hammerfists. Smith can probably win this fight with distance control through his reach advantage. When I look at the fighters that have beaten Anthony Smith in the past five years, they are all of a higher class than Dolidze. Conversely, I am not sure Dolidze has had to solve as complicated a puzzle as Anthony Smith.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Smith
UFC 303 Best Bet: Anthony Smith (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
–
Mayra “Sheetara” Bueno Silva (-110) vs Macy Chiasson (-110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Mayra Bueno Silva surged to the top of the women’s Bantamweight division after three consecutive submission victories. However, she reached the top of the mountain and had a title shot versus Raquel Pennington. She fell flat under those bright lights, getting outstruck nearly two to one, and unable to accomplish much with her three takedowns landed. The question in this fight is whether she can recover and find success grappling in another fight versus an adept grappler?
Macy Chiasson was out of the UFC for nearly a year and a half due to injury and opponent injury. However, when she came back in March of this year, she showed that she had not lost skill in her absence, winning via first-round submission vs. Pannie Kianzad (the fighter she beat in the championship of her season of the Ultimate Fighter back in 2018). Chiasson is a “company woman” as she has 12 professional fights, ten of which have come in the UFC’s cage.
This one is tough to gauge because the Bueno Silva we last saw was a major step back from the form she had displayed in her pervious four bouts. Meanwhile, Chiasson looked great in her comeback fight, but the opponent was familiar, and she was a -230 favorite. This fight has a real shot at ending via submission either way, but not enough conviction to make it official.
FIGHT WINNER: Macy Chiasson
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pass
–
Ian “The Future” Machado Garry (-162) vs Michael “Venom” Page (+136)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds(+170)
Ian Garry is a 14-0 fighter coming off his biggest test in the cage, a split-decision victory versus Geoff Neal. He has seven wins in the octagon, with four coming via decision and three via knockout. He is mostly a point fighter who uses excellent movement and range control to out-point opponents. He is just 26 years old and has all the confidence in the world. He will be 11 years younger than his opponent, Michael “Venom” Page.
MVP finally made the jump from Bellator to the UFC in early March on the UFC 299 card. He won a straightforward decision versus Kevin Holland and added some credibility to his 22-2 professional record. He fights with a wide karate stance and makes it work because he has speed, and a 6’3” frame with a 79” reach. Even at age 37, MVP is still lightning-quick and can cover distance with the best in the world.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael “Venom” Page
UFC 303 Best Bet: Michael “Venom” Page (+136), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.36
–
Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer (-310) vs Marc-Andre “PowerBar” Barriault (+250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Joe Pyfer was humbled in his last fight by the veteran Jack Hermansson. Pyfer was surging and quickly becoming a favorite of UFC matchmakers. In his fourth UFC bout, he was given a main event on a fight night card but did not rise to the occasion. He learned there are levels to this game, and when you start fighting ranked fighters, you will not be able to force a finish early in the fight with brute strength. That said, he is still a solid prospect with a wrestling base and striking power that should serve him for years to come in the middleweight division. He is just 27 years old, and as long as he took the right lessons from his loss, there could be more main events in his future.
Marc-Andre Barriault tests the gas tank of all of his opponents. He only has one speed, sometimes to his detriment. Constantly moving forward and not letting his opponent catch his breath, he wins wars of attrition. The downside is that sometimes he overextends himself, and his defense fails him in pursuit of constantly moving forward. Regardless, most of his fights are extremely entertaining affairs.
Fight Winner: Joe Pyfer
UFC 303 Best Bet: Parlay Piece, See below
–
“Killer” Cub Swanson (+180) vs Andre “Touchy” Fili (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Cub Swanson is one of the last remaining WEC holdovers still making waves in the UFC. He is 40 years old, and his spot on the UFC roster is far from ceremonial. Dating back to 2019, he entered the Octagon eight times and had a 4-4 record in that span. He was the underdog in seven of those fights. The UFC has not been making Cub’s twilight years easy. He is still a heady fighter who can trade strikes and grapple. Two of his last three wins have come via knockout, adding credence to the theories about “old man strength.”
Andre Fili is also a veteran with 22 UFC fights. He hasn’t reached the heights that Cub has ascended to, but he has plenty to be proud of in his career. He never turns down a chance to get in the cage and isn’t afraid to fight up in ranking. However that mentality cost Fili dearly in February, he took a short notice fight versus Dan Ige and got knocked out in the first round. He is also no longer a young fighter. He is 34 and has a lot of wear on his body. He has fought six times in the last 26 months, getting knocked out twice. He is mostly a decision fighter, but can end fights via KO if the opportunity presents itself.
Ultimately I think Cub’s leg kicks are the difference in this fight, that said his age is keeping me off making him an official bet.
FIGHT WINNER: Cub Swanson
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pass
–
Charles “Air” Jourdain (-122) vs Jean “Lord Assassin” Silva (+102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Charles Jourdain has a 6-6-1 record in the UFC, never winning or losing more than two fights in a row in the organization. He is coming off a split-decision loss versus Sean Woodson in front of a home Canadian crowd. He has only once lost inside the distance in the UFC and has two wins of each type: KO, submission, and decision. He is a volume striker who generally chooses quantity over quality of strikes, which is an effective strategy most of the time in a featherweight division, often in fights with above-average striking numbers. Like most fighters who make it to double-digit fights in the UFC, his defensive metrics are better than his offensive.
Jean Silva missed weight by a pound and a half on Friday. It is hard to factor this in because we have seen missed weights go various ways. He is 1-0 in the UFC with a first-round knockout of Westin Wilson. Overall, he has a 92% professional finish rate. His one decision win came in the Contender Series.
I expect Jourdain’s experience to win the day, but I am more attracted to the total in this fight. Silva’s style could lead to a finish or draw one out of Jourdain.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Jourdain
UFC 3030 Best Bet: Fight Does Not Go Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
–
Payton Talbott (-1600) vs Yanis “The Desert Warrior” Ghemmouri (+900)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Payton Talbott is a star in the making. He is only 25 years old, 8-0 as a professional. He won in Contender Series via decision, his only fight that has seen the judges scorecards. He won via submission and KO in his two official UFC fights. His most recent fight was against another highly thought-of prospect, Cameron Saaiman, and Talbott did ridiculous damage. He has a long and slender frame but has ridiculous power. Interestingly enough, he has seven wins inside the distance, all of which came in round two or three.
Yanis Ghemmouri made his UFC debut in Paris last September. He lost to William Gomis via body kick in the third round but was on a nine-fight win streak in various European and Middle Eastern organizations before that. He can be dangerous with submissions, but I do not think he will be able to get a dominant position on Talbott and will likely need to lean on his striking.
FIGHT WINNER: Payton Talbott
UFC 303 Best Bet: Parlay – Pyfer/Barriault No Distance + Talbott/Ghemmouri No Distance (+113), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.13
–
Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson-Gomez (+154) vs Gillian Robertson (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez is in desperate need of a win, having lost four in a row and six of her last seven dating back to October 2019. She has been the underdog in her last 11 fights which is a testament to her never turning away from tough competition. However at age 38, she cannot afford to have the losses continue to pile up if she wants to hold onto her career.
Gillian Robertson is a submission specialist who struggles when she cannot get the fight to the ground. At just 29 years old, she is 10-6 in the UFC, and there is a chance her best days are still in front of her, especially if she can develop a striking game. There is a high chance she gets her 10th career submission victory in this fight, but landing a takedown vs. Waterson-Gomez can sometimes be a tough proposition.
FIGHT WINNER: Gillian Robertson
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pass
–
Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski (+220) vs Martin “Badys” Buday (-270)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Andrei Arlovski made his professional MMA debut in 1999. That stat never gets old. Speaking of old, Arlovski is now 45. Despite being one of the oldest fighters in professional fighting, Arlovski is still a tough customer. He has lost three fights in a row, but that came after a four-fight win streak. He is nowhere near as powerful as he once was, and he has lost much of the hand speed he once had, but he is still a heady fighter, and if he’s allowed to stick to his game plan, he can still win fights.
Martin Buday is the rare heavyweight who does not possess much finishing power with his hands. He lost his last fight via KO to Shamil Gaziev in a fast-paced slugfest. I do not foresee this fight being that type of affair. He is the longer fighter, and if he can find range, he can outpoint Arlovski. That said, I do not think highly of Buday’s overall MMA aptitude.
FIGHT WINNER: Andrei Arlovski
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pass
–
Carlos Hernandez (+360) vs Rei Tsuruya (-470)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160)
Carlos Hernandez is 2-2 in the UFC, with his most recent fight being a KO loss against Tatsuro Taira. He has a Contender Series win, and four of his five opponents in the octagon have succeeded in securing takedowns. His significant strike defense is sub-50%.
Rei Tsuruya is a Road to UFC champion, who finished two of his three fights in the tournament. He is 22 years old and boasts a 9-0 professional record, with eight victories coming inside the distance.
Carlos Hernandez has not proven to be a high-level UFC competitor, and Tsuruya’s path to an undefeated record has not been all that impressive either. Overall, I view this fight as more of a learning opportunity than a wagering opportunity. Will Rei Tsuruya fizzle like most of the other Road to UFC products, or will he take the organization by storm like his countryman Tatsuro Taira?
FIGHT WINNER: Rei Tsuruya
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pass
–
Ricky Simon (-250 vs Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira (+205)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Ricky Simon has seemingly hit a wall. After winning via submission in the biggest fight of his career vs Jack Shore, Simon was KO’d vs Song Yadong and was unable to mount much offense in a decision loss by Mario Bautista. For most of his career, he has been a dominant grappler, but despite landing two takedowns in each of his last two fights, he was unable to hold position and was outclassed in striking. Perhaps we have found the ceiling for Simon’s potential, and that is ranked opponents.
Vinicius Oliveira had an opponent change the week before his first UFC fight. He adapted and landed one of the most brutal knockouts of 2024 on the tough newcomer, Bernardo Sopaj. He is an excellent striker; 16 of his 20 pro victories have come via KO. Before that performance, he won via first-round KO in the Contender Series. If he can stop the takedown, or at least prevent Simon from getting into finishing position early in the fight, I think he has a real chance to take over late with his striking.
FIGHT WINNER: Vinicius Oliveira
UFC 303 Best Bet: Vinicius Oliveira (+205), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05
–
BEST BETS RECAP
- Alex Pereira (-148) vs Prochazka, Risk 1.48 Unit to Win 1
- Brian Ortega (+114) vs Lopes, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
- Anthony Smith (+120) vs Dolidze, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
- Michael “Venom” Page (+136) vs Garry, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.36
- Jourdain/Silva Fight Does Not Go Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05
- Parlay: Pyfer/Barriault No Distance + Talbott/Ghemmouri No Distance (+113), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.13
- Vinicius Oliveira (+205), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05
