It’s a massive week in the heavyweight division as Tom Aspinall defends his title against Ciryl Gane in the UFC 321 main event from Abu Dhabi. Plus we’ve got a second belt on the line with Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight crown.

As always, we’re turning to the numbers. The model went 4-5 last week and now sits at 148-77-11 (64.35%) on the year. But with some heavy favorites and potential trap spots on this card, we’re treading carefully.

 

I’ve run every qualifying matchup through the model and picked out the most actionable betting insights, including where I’m leaning, where the odds don’t quite match the data, and which spots I’ll be staying away from.

Don’t forget to catch up with this weeks episode of First Strike!

This week, the godfather of MMA analytics joins us, Reed Kuhn to give his betting insights alongside Dave Ross and myself.

Ikram Aliskerov (-230) vs Jun Yong Park (+190)

Let’s kick things off with a bonus fight. One that won’t go on the official model record, but still deserves some attention.

Ikram Aliskerov is coming off a first-round TKO win over Andre Muniz in April, a strong rebound after stepping in on short notice to face Robert Whittaker last summer. In fact, the only two men to beat him in his MMA career are Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev. Not bad company to keep.

On the other side, Jun Yong Park is quietly on a two-fight win streak with decisions over Ismail Naurdiev and Brad Tavares. He’s a gritty vet, with more UFC cage time than Aliskerov, and the coolest nickname in the fight game, The Iron Turtle.

Let’s get into the data.

  • xR% favors Aliskerov: 75% vs 65% for Park.
  • Reach advantage also goes to Ikram: +3 inches, sitting at 76 inches total.
  • All of Ikram’s UFC bouts have ended in Round 1 — 3 knockout wins, 1 knockout loss.
  • Average cage time? Just 2.75 minutes for Aliskerov. So keep in mind, we’re still working with limited sample size here.

Park’s style leans more decision-heavy, with some sub wins along the way. But there’s a big stat worth highlighting:

  • Aliskerov lands 8.64 significant strikes per minute — with 62% accuracy and a +3.27 differential.
  • But he also absorbs 5.36 per minute, so his offense comes at a cost.

Park brings a much more measured approach:

  • 4.59 significant strikes landed per minute with a +0.99 differential.
  • 3.59 absorbed per minute, showing more defensive control.

Where Park may try to make this interesting is in the grappling:

  • 64% control rate in clinch/ground time.
  • 18 takedowns landed at 43% accuracy.
  • But his takedown defense sits at just 52% but it’s unlikely Ikram will look to test it much anyway.

And the kicker: Ikram’s most recent win was over Muniz, the same fighter who handed Park his last loss. That’s not everything, but it’s something. It’s just a note. We can’t always trust MMA math like that.

The model gives a strong score to Aliskerov, but we’re keeping it unofficial due to the shallow data pool. He’s priced at -230, which is a heavy number for someone we’ve only seen in flashes at this level.

Stay away for now. But if you’re looking for fun, Aliskerov by TKO is currently at +700. Not a bad price for a guy who has only seen the first round in the UFC.

Park has lost his last 2 fights as an underdog. This will be his first time back in that role since 2021.

We’ll call this one fun, but dangerous. Keep your distance unless the markets move.

Alexander Volkov (+160) vs Jailton Almeida (-192)

Let’s head to the heavyweights, where the division finally feels alive again. With Tom Aspinall solidifying the top spot in the main event, contenders like these two are trying to carve a path up the rankings.

Alexander Volkov has long been a staple of the division. He’s coming off a decision loss to Ciryl Gane back in December 2024, but before that, he rattled off a four-fight win streak. He’s fought just about everybody, including both men in the title fight. He’s seasoned, experienced, and surprisingly still evolving.

Jailton Almeida, on the other hand, is the new wave. He’s coming off back-to-back wins, including a first-round TKO over Serghei Spivac in January. The hype is still strong, and the numbers back it up.

Let’s break it down:

  • xR% leans heavily toward Almeida: 88% vs 62% for Volkov.
  • Volkov still holds the strength of schedule advantage with 17 UFC fights under his belt, mostly against elite opponents.

Striking favors Volkov:

  • 5.27 significant strikes landed per minute, with a +2.08 differential.
  • He only absorbs 3.19 significant strikes per minute. Yet, very little power for a heavyweight. Only 4 knockdowns scored in his 17 UFC fights.

Jailton doesn’t offer much on the feet in terms of volume:

  • Just 2.87 significant strikes per minute, but with a +2.00 differential.
  • That’s because he barely gets hit — just 0.88 absorbed per minute.

Why? He’s not trying to stand with you.

He’s trying to smother you.

  • 94% control rate in clinch/ground time.
  • 27 takedowns landed at 60% accuracy.
  • He averages a wild 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes.

That’s elite-level grappling.

The big question becomes: Can Volkov keep it standing?

  • His takedown defense sits at 74%, which is solid — but he hasn’t faced someone quite like Jailton.

The model gives a strong grade to Almeida, and it’s not hard to see why. But the odds have moved around. We started the week at -205, then up to -225, and now back down to (-192)

I will personally grab Almeida at -192. I’ve said it before, but I prefer to keep heavyweights out of parlays. But if you that number climbs back up, it might be time to look elsewhere or shop props.

This is a step up for Jailton in terms of competition — and for Volkov, a chance to remind everyone he’s still right there in the mix.

Jailton Almeida Modelo Win Probability: 69.1%

Umar Nurmagomedov (-625) vs Mario Bautista (+455)

Let’s go to the bantamweight division for one of the more intriguing matchups on the card.

Umar Nurmagomedov is returning to the Octagon for the first time since suffering the first loss of his professional career. A one-sided showing against Merab Dvalishvili. But that’s nothing to be ashamed of. Merab is a relentless force, and even elite talent can get overwhelmed.

Before that, Umar was a perfect 18-0 and looked every bit like a future contender.

Mario Bautista, meanwhile, is quietly riding an eight-fight UFC win streak. His last win was a composed, high-volume decision over Patchy Mix, and he hasn’t tasted defeat since 2021.

The stats for this one tell a pretty clear story:

  • xR%: Umar at 81%, Mario at 67%. Prior to facing Merab, Umar was sitting at an insane 92%. That’s how dominant he had been. (And how incredible Merab is).
  • Finish stats: 7 combined UFC finishes between them. They’re not always flashy, but they get the job done.

On the feet:

  • Umar lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute with a +2.23 differential. He’s incredibly efficient and defensively sound. Just 2.15 absorbed per minute with a 72% head strike defense.
  • Mario is the volume striker here: 6.13 significant strikes per minute, but with only a +1.68 differential. He eats 4.45 per minute, and that could be a problem against someone who hits clean and moves well.

But we all know the grappling is where this fight could be decided.

  • Umar holds a 91% control rate in clinch/ground time (it was 97% before the Merab loss).
  • 21 takedowns landed, averaging 4.44 attempts per 5 minutes. He never stops pressuring.

That could spell trouble for Bautista, who has a 68% takedown defense. Solid, but not against someone at Umar’s level.

The model? It’s still a believer.

Umar gets a strong grade here, showing clear paths to control and limit Mario’s offense.

But the betting odds don’t offer much room to play. The value has been sucked out of this one. -625 at the moment, up from -550 earlier in the week.

He’s parlay anchor material, but if the number keeps ballooning, it’s probably better to look toward method props. Umar by decision currently sits around -175.

This is a good bounce-back spot for Umar, but don’t sleep on Mario’s momentum either. This one could be telling for the division’s future.

Umar Nurmagomedov Modelo Win Probability: 68.95%

Virna Jandiroba (+130) vs Mackenzie Dern (-155)

We’ll see a new strawweight champion crowned on Saturday night, as Zhang Weili has officially vacated her title to move up in weight. That opens the door for two experienced contenders: Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern.

Interestingly, these two have fought before. Back in 2020, Dern won a decision as a -155 favorite. But since that night, the path to UFC 321 has looked different for each of them. Dern has gone just 5-4, while Jandiroba has quietly put together a 6-1 record and enters this fight on a five-fight win streak.

At 37, this could be Jandiroba’s last real chance to grab UFC gold.

Neither woman comes in with dominant statistical edges across the board, but the grappling numbers do give us some useful insight. The model leans ever so slightly in favor of Virna Jandiroba, but this is a close one.

Let’s take a look:

  • xR% is nearly even at Jandiroba at 59%, Dern at 57%
  • Takedown attempts: Virna has 21 takedowns on record at a 33% success rate, while Dern has just 12 with an 18% success rate
  • Submission threats: Both women have attempted 16 submissions in the UFC
  • Takedown defense tells a different story, Jandiroba defends at 74%, Dern at a concerning 25%

On the feet, neither woman has been particularly sharp. Jandiroba lands just 1.97 significant strikes per minute and has a negative differential (-0.59). Dern is a bit more active at 3.31 per minute, but also has a negative differential (-0.58). Notably, Dern has been knocked down six times in her UFC career, but Virna hasn’t shown potential at real punching power.

The first meeting went the distance, and there’s a decent chance this one does as well. Jandiroba may not be a dynamic striker, but she’s solid in control positions and avoids big damage. And while Dern has more name value, her lack of defensive fundamentals makes her tough to trust.

The model edges toward Virna Jandiroba with a win probability of only 55.81%, giving her a slight statistical advantage.

She started the week around +150 and has since been bet down to +130. It’s not a slam-dunk value spot, but it’s clear that some in the market agree with the model. This could be a very live dog.

That said, the model’s confidence is low here, and official bets may not be warranted. You’ll likely find me simply rooting for a Mackenzie Dern crowning moment — but won’t be surprised at all if Jandiroba spoils it.

Virna Jandiroba Modelo Win Probability: 55.81%

Tom Aspinall (-355) vs Ciryl Gane (+280)

Tom Aspinall walks into UFC 321 as the official UFC Heavyweight Champion. No interim tag. No asterisk. No Jon Jones holding the belt hostage.

It’s his division now and defending it starts with Ciryl Gane.

Aspinall hasn’t fought since his first-round knockout over Curtis Blaydes in July 2024. Notably, he’s onlyhad one UFC fight to make it out of the first round (vs Andre Arlovski) and even that only lasted a few seconds into the second. Every other win has come inside five minutes. He’s absurdly efficient and frighteningly fast for a heavyweight.

His only UFC loss was a freak knee injury 15 seconds into a fight with Blaydes in 2022. Beyond that, you have to go back to 2016 to find a loss on his record (a DQ via 12–6 elbows), and 2015 for a heel hook defeat.

On the other side, Ciryl Gane has already challenged for undisputed gold twice — and came up short both times. He lost to Francis Ngannou in 2022 and was submitted in quick fashion by Jon Jones in 2023. He’s bounced back since then, picking up a pair of wins, most recently a decision over Alexander Volkov in December.

Let’s dive into the numbers:

  • xR% edge: Aspinall holds a ridiculous 90% xR%, one of the highest in any division. Gane sits at a very solid 79%, but that gap speaks to the dominance of the champ.
  • Finishing threat: Both men have 2 submissions on record. Aspinall has 6 knockouts, Gane has 4.
  • Striking pace: Aspinall averages 8.07 significant strikes per minute with a monster +5.18 differential. That’s videogame type of striking. Gane is efficient too. 5.26 per minute with a +3.03 differential — but Aspinall’s pace is something else entirely.
  • Knockdown count: Aspinall has 5 in the UFC. Gane has 4.
  • Striking defense: Gane absorbs just 2.23 per minute, Aspinall 2.89. Both solid.
  • Accuracy edge: Aspinall lands 60% of his head strikes, compared to Gane’s 46%.

As for grappling:

  • Aspinall has attempted just 4 takedowns in the UFC and he landed all 4. He hasn’t needed it often.
  • He’s never been taken down, although only 2 attempts have even been made against him.
  • Gane’s offensive wrestling isn’t a strong point, scoring 8 takedowns at just 25% accuracy. His takedown defense is a soft spot at 44%.

These two will likely spend most of the fight striking. 72% of Aspinall’s time is at distance, and 82% for Gane.

Not surprisingly, the model gives this one to the champ, Tom Aspinall, with a 69.10% win probability.

That translates to an implied line of -224, but the actual betting market has him at -355 or higher. So there’s a bit of a gap here, and it’s enough to give us pause. It’s hard to confidently play a heavyweight favorite at that price. Especially when you’re just one slip away from getting clipped.

If you’re bullish on Aspinall, the KO prop sits at -150. The over 1.5 rounds is juiced at -135. But if Tom makes this look like every other fight, even that could feel like a sweat.

One thing’s for sure: if he gets this done impressively, the Aspinall era will truly be inevitable.

Tom Aspinall Modelo Win Probability: 69.10%

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Modelo Predictions for UFC 321 | Win Probability %

  • Tom Aspinall | 69.10%
  • Virna Jandiroba | 55.81%
  • Umar Nurmagomedov | 68.95%
  • Jailton Almeida | 72.18%
  • Azamat Murzakanov | 58.79%
  • Ludovit Klein | 54.59%
  • Jaqueline Amorim | 83.70%

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