In the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks clash with a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Pacers vs. Knicks Series Preview
Even if you want to bet the Knicks to win this series, the oddsmakers are making it rather difficult. You’d have to pay a price of nearly -300 in some shops to take New York to advance. And even the series spread of -1.5 games is heavily juiced. Considering not much separates these two basketball teams, I’m not sure how you lay off the Pacers. And that’s coming from a guy that likes the Knicks to win the series. The value simply isn’t there.
Jalen Brunson will undoubtedly be the best player in this series, as he’s coming off six games against the Philadelphia 76ers in which he averaged 35.5 points and 9.0 assists per game. Brunson also came up with timely shots for the Knicks to bounce the Sixers in Game 6. But the Pacers will feel pretty good about being able to throw Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith on him throughout this series. Nobody is capable of really shutting Brunson down completely, but both of those guys can be physical with him and try to tire him out by the end of the series. The Pacers just need to try and defend him without fouling. Brunson is the master of drawing contact and only one team in the league fouled at a higher rate than Indiana after the team acquired Pascal Siakam. If the Pacers give the Knicks too many freebies, they’ll be in a lot of trouble in this series.
Indiana does, however, have the more well-rounded team here. Depth isn’t really something to boast about in the playoffs, as most teams are comfortable shrinking their rotations — and that’s especially true of a Tom Thibodeau team. But the Pacers do have a greater collection of trustworthy players. And after Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are the next best players in the series. And I have doubts about whether New York will be able to contain them.
The Knicks really don’t have any good answers for Haliburton’s ability to create on the perimeter, and the young guard should make a lot happen as a pick-and-roll maestro in this series. New York was shredded by the Joel Embiid-Tyrese Maxey two-man game last series. And if New York opts to throw OG Anunoby on Haliburton, Pascal Siakam will feast on whoever covers him. And Siakam might have a big series regardless. He should have some good ways to attack Anunoby, as the two likely know one another very well from their time together in Toronto.
I also think Myles Turner has the ability to be an X-factor in this series. Isaiah Hartenstein is one of the best interior defenders in the NBA, but Turner is a floor-spacing big. And if Hartenstein — or Mitchell Robinson — gets dragged out to the 3-point line, the Pacers will have opportunities to score at the rim. And they were one of the best teams in the league at the rim this season. There’s actually a bit of a misconception out there with this Indiana team. People view the Pacers as a trigger-happy 3-point shooting team, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, the math battle heavily favors the Knicks in this series. The 3-point shot is a much heavier part of New York’s shot diet, and the Knicks drill them a decent clip. But the Pacers do a good job of running shooters off the line and trying to funnel them towards Turner, who is one of the best rim protectors in basketball. So, it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out in this series.
Indiana is also a bit better defensively than given credit for. Dunks & Threes has the Pacers as the 24th-ranked team in the league when it comes to adjusted defensive rating. However, Indiana is 13th in the league in points per 100 possessions allowed (116.6) in halfcourt situations, according to Cleaning The Glass. And that’s especially important considering New York’s ability to execute in a halfcourt setting.
Of course, the Knicks do some things that make it hard to predict games. New York is absolutely relentless on the offensive glass, and second chance opportunities really played a big role in the Knicks beating the Sixers last round. And that’s especially concerning for Indiana, as the team isn’t very good at keeping opponents off the offensive boards. But that’s not enough to pick the Knicks to win this series as their current price, and it’s certainly not enough to lay any games. The Pacers actually did a good job of keeping the Milwaukee Bucks off the glass in the first round. And overall, this Indiana team is explosive enough offensively to steal a game at Madison Square Garden, and the Knicks will have a harder time winning games in Indiana than they did in Philadelphia.
New York’s fans packed the Wells Fargo Center, as it was actually cheaper to head there than stick around in Manhattan. But they won’t have that same luxury here. Gainbridge Fieldhouse is going to be a madhouse in this series. While the Bucks were shorthanded in the first round, they weren’t able to win a game in Indiana. And the Pacers are 28-15 straight-up and 23-18 against the spread in their home building this year. That alone makes it hard not to like Indiana to keep this series close.
Best Bet: Pacers +1.5 Games (+118) & Pacers To Win Series (+235 – 0.5 units)
