Group play for the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup begins on Tuesday. This will be the second season in which the league will hold this in-season tournament which culminates in single elimination games in Las Vegas.
For those still unfamiliar with the tournament, you’re in the right spot. In today’s column we will break down the format, the groups and the favorites. I’ll also recommend a few tournament futures that I have in pocket as well.
The Format
Each team in the league has been randomly drawn into groups of five. Beginning Tuesday, Nov. 12 and continuing through Tuesday, Dec. 3, each team will play four Group Play games on “Cup Nights”. Teams will play one game against each opponent in its group, with two games at home and two on the road.
Eight teams will advance to the elimination stage of the tournament. The team with the best record in group play games in each of the groups and two wild card teams – the team from each conference with the best record in group play games that finished second in its group – will advance.
The knockout rounds will be single-elimination contests. The quarterfinals will be played in home venues of the higher seeded teams. The semifinals and final will be played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
In order to determine seeding the league has decided on the following tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head record in Group Play
- Point differential in Group Play
- Total points scored in Group Play
- Record from the 2023-24 NBA regular season
- Random drawing (if two or more teams are still tied following the previous tiebreakers).
An important note for bettors: Overtime scoring will not count towards the point differential and total points tiebreakers.
The Groups
East Group A
New York is the favorite to win this group, but not due to its level of play. The Knicks are just 4-5 SU and ATS on the season. They are 10th in non-garbage time net rating (+4.4) but that is largely due to an offense that is third-best in the league (122.5). New York’s defense is seventh-worst (118.1). The problem for the rest of the group is injuries and lack of availability of stars.
Orlando will not have Paolo Banchero throughout both group play – and the knockout stage should it advance – due to a torn oblique suffered in October. Philadelphia will be without Tyrese Maxey for a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. Charlotte and Brooklyn are in better shape in terms of injuries, but are just much lesser teams.
East Group B
Despite owning the second-worst record in the NBA the Milwaukee Bucks are favored to win Group B in the East. Like the Knicks, the Bucks’ defense has been an abomination this season. Opponents have averaged 119.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time against Milwaukee. With Damian Lillard on the floor the Bucks’ defensive rating is 120.4 and they have been outscored by 5.8 points every 100 possessions.
Indiana – the NBA Cup runner-up last season – will likely be a popular choice, but injuries to both Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith make its depth suspect. Both are expected to miss multiple weeks. Remember too, this frontcourt is extremely thin after losing both James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson to long-term injuries.
Truthfully, this group is the weakest at the top. Even the third-most likely group winner – Miami – was also dealt a blow with the latest Jimmy Butler injury. The Heat forward suffered a sprained ankle and missed Miami’s win over Minnesota on Sunday. His timetable for a return is unknown at this point. One of the teams at the bottom of the group has more life than its odds would indicate, but more on that later.
East Group C
One could call this the Group of Death, but only because of the presence of the Eastern Conference’s top two teams: Boston and Cleveland.
The Celtics remain the odds-on favorite, but the Cavaliers could give them a run for their money in group play. Cleveland will have to go to Boston for their meeting in group play, but Chicago, Atlanta and Washington are among the lowest power rated teams in the league. Point differential is a tiebreaker, so look for both the Celtics and Cavaliers to pour it on against the other three foes in group play.
As it stands, there is no realistic path for any of the other three teams in the group. One might see the upside in Atlanta, but this team is dealing with injuries to key players such as Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kobe Bufkin, neither of whom will be available during cup play.
West Group A
None of the teams in this group really stick out as a true favorite at this point of the season. The betting favorite – Minnesota – is starting to figure things out. As of Monday, the Timberwolves are eighth in non-garbage time net rating (+5.6). But, they lost to the Heat on Sunday despite Jimmy Butler missing the contest. Rudy Gobert was benched for the final possession of the game, and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year had something to say about it. In other words, the vibes aren’t great.
Having said that, none of the other teams seem like truly viable options. Sacramento ranks just ahead of Minnesota in non-garbage time net rating (+5.8), but there are some red flags with the Kings. First and foremost, they cannot shoot. They rank 28th in 3-point shooting (31.5%). Second, the bench is 29th in scoring (23.1 PPG) and they just lost Malik Monk to an ankle injury. That does not bode well for a team that must take on three defenses – Los Angeles, Houston and Minnesota – that rank 10th or higher in defensive efficiency.
West Group B
Injuries are a theme in the NBA right now, and there are few groups that have been affected by injury more than this one.
Oklahoma City just lost Chet Holmgren to a hip fracture which will keep him out well past the conclusion of the NBA Cup. Phoenix announced that Kevin Durant will miss at least two weeks with a calf strain. That timeline is short enough that Durant could return for the last portion of group play or the elimination round, but the team could be cautious and bring him back slowly.
It sets up for Los Angeles – the reigning NBA Cup champions – to rule once again. Bettors will want to monitor the status of Anthony Davis. The Lakers’ center was injured in the win over the Raptors when he took a blow to the face. Dave McMenamin of ESPN reported that Davis suffered swelling and had to see an ophthalmologist on Monday, but it does not seem the big man will miss enough time to alter Los Angeles’ chances of repeating.
West Group C
Denver’s status as the favorite to win West Group C seems tenuous at best. The Nuggets have won seven of eight and five straight since its 0-2 SU and ATS start, but not everything is as it seems. It is only 4-4 ATS in those eight games, and Nikola Jokic has a massive load on his plate. The three-time MVP is averaging 38.7 minutes per game over those eight contests while averaging 30.0 points, 14.5 rebounds and 12.5 assists on 57.9% shooting. The Nuggets still have a -29.8 net rating in the minutes he is not on the floor.
Dallas and Golden State are obviously legitimate candidates to win this group outside of Denver. The Mavericks are just 5-5 SU/4-5-1 ATS but they rank seventh in non-garbage time net rating (+5.8). They must also go to both Golden State and Denver in group play.
As usual, injuries are holding back the chances for both Memphis and New Orleans. Ja Morant is week-to-week with a hip injury, and Zion Williamson is out with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans are getting Trey Murphy III back on Monday, but CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray remain sidelined as well.
NBA Cup Best Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers to win NBA Cup (+1100)
Cleveland is a massive favorite to make it to the knockout stage, either as a group winner or a wild card. If it cannot beat Boston in its road meeting in group play, it has the opportunity to build up its point differential in group play contests against Chicago, Atlanta and Washington. Even a road trip in the first round of the elimination stage – if they must travel – is not daunting for the Cavaliers in a weak Eastern Conference. Cleveland has a very clear path to Las Vegas.
Golden State Warriors to win West Group C (+220)
Steph Curry is back and playing well. He just dropped 36 points on 13-of-23 shooting at Oklahoma City, and the Warriors as a whole passed a tough road trip with flying colors after a win at Boston. This team is extremely underrated at 8-2 SU and ATS, and it is also one of the best road teams in the league at 6-1 SU and ATS away from home. I’ve been backing Golden State in many different ways, and this is just another way to capitalize on a market being slow to upgrade its rating.
Detroit Pistons to win East Group B (+1300)
This will be the longshot in the NBA Cup for me. East Group B is extremely soft at the top. Milwaukee is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, Indiana’s depth has been shot by injuries and Jimmy Butler is banged up once again. Detroit gets both Miami and Milwaukee at home in group play, which only helps their chances. Cade Cunningham is also playing some incredible basketball, averaging 21.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 10.8 assists in the four games heading into group play.
