The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Philadelphia 76ers. Keep reading to see how we think the Sixers will do compared to their regular season win total of 42.5.
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Offense
There weren’t many positives to take from Philadelphia’s 2024-25 season, but that hardly matters. The success of this team, on both ends, always comes down to Joel Embiid’s health. Two years ago, in the last season he played 65+ games, the Sixers finished third in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (117.9). If he logs a decent number of games in 2025-26, Philadelphia should once again be a top-10 offense.
Still, it’s impossible to expect much when it comes to Embiid’s availability. The 2022-23 MVP and five-time All-NBA performer missed 63 games last year, right after missing 43 the season before. His body is failing him, and he knows it. But he’s working to fight it. Before camp, Embiid was grinding at the Sixers’ training facility, noticeably slimmer than before. Maybe carrying less weight will ease the stress on his knees. The presence of Andre Drummond — and possibly Adem Bona or rookie Johni Broome — could also help him stay fresh. Nick Nurse might be able to get away with playing Embiid fewer minutes.
If Embiid is healthy when it matters, he’ll have a championship-caliber roster around him. Tyrese Maxey averaged a career-high 26.3 points last year, cementing himself as an All-Star. Maxey isn’t an above-the-rim finisher, but his first step gets him to the cup whenever he wants, and he remains a dangerous shooter. He hit 42.7% from deep in 2021-22 and 43.4% in 2022-23. His percentages dipped the last two seasons because of increased volume, worse shot quality when Embiid sat, and a broken finger, but there’s no cause for concern.
With Maxey and Embiid, the Sixers have one of the league’s best one-two punches. The question is what Paul George provides as the third option. His first year in Philly was rough: just 16.2 points per game with a 54.3% true shooting percentage — his worst since 2012-13. Injuries limited him, and he eventually needed arthroscopic knee surgery.
Success for the Sixers hinges on George bouncing back. If he can’t replicate anything close to his 2023-24 line (22.6 points, 3.5 assists on 47.1/41.3/90.7 splits), Philadelphia’s ceiling drops significantly.
Nurse also needs to find a way to make the Maxey-Embiid-George trio work. They barely shared the floor last season, but when they did, the Sixers scored just 109.0 points per 100 possessions. For context, Brooklyn ranked third-worst in the NBA last year at 108.7.
The good news is they’ll have solid pieces around them. Quentin Grimes is expected to start at shooting guard, and he averaged 21.9 points in 28 games after arriving in Philly, showcasing efficient shot-making and surprising secondary playmaking. Rookie Jared McCain was also a bright spot, scoring 15.3 points on 38.3% shooting from three in 23 games. He looks like an ideal bench scorer and floor-spacer, and he’ll be a big factor when he returns from a thumb injury. Until then, veteran Eric Gordon could serve as the primary shooter off the bench.
Kelly Oubre Jr. continues to bring athleticism and energy, though his jumper has betrayed him — just 31.1% from three in 2023-24 and 29.3% last year. Getting that number back to the mid-30s would be massive. The Sixers will also look to No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe for energy and creation. He shares Maxey’s burst to the rim but adds above-the-rim finishing, and he shot the three well at Baylor after a slow start. He has real three-level scoring potential.
Somewhere in here, there’s a team that surrounded the best low-post scorer in basketball with shooting, scoring, and athleticism. But until we see it, Philadelphia will remain more theory than reality.
Defense
When Embiid is healthy, he changes the game defensively. Even if he’s lost a step, he’s still a dominant low-post defender who deters drivers. His weakness now comes in space, though his new slimmer frame could help him hold his own there. Regardless, he remains one of the league’s premier anchors.
George is in a similar spot. He’s no longer the elite stopper he once was, but he can still provide above-average perimeter defense. That generally describes most of Philadelphia’s starters — with the exception of Maxey. His size makes him a target, but he at least competes, and his 1.8 steals per game last season show he’s active in passing lanes.
Edgecombe adds an edge on this end. He’s a physical, in-your-face defender, and pairing him with Maxey in the backcourt down the line should work out.
If health weren’t a concern, this would be a clear top-10 defense, as it was in 2022-23. But, again, health is the concern.
Outlook
On paper, this roster has the goods. Few teams can top a trio of Embiid, Maxey, and George, and the rotation around them is solid. Nurse is also a proven championship coach. But the games aren’t played on paper.
If you absolutely must play the Sixers’ win total, the lean has to be Over. On the chance Embiid plays more than half the games, you don’t want to be stuck holding an Under ticket. The team is too talented, and the East is terrible.
There’s also the tiniest bit of value in taking a shot on Philadelphia to win the East (14-1) — or even the title (40-1) — but make sure you don’t overextend. With this team, you better be extra prepared to lose any bets you put in. The season hasn’t even started yet and the return dates for Embiid and George are already mysteries.
Prediction: Over 42.5 Wins
