The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Sacramento Kings. Keep reading to see how we think the Kings will do compared to their regular season win total of 36.5.
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Offense
It raised some eyebrows when Sacramento moved on from Mike Brown. He guided the Kings to 48 wins and the league’s best adjusted offensive rating (119.0) in 2022-23, and he’s still well respected — enough that New York gave him a four-year, $40 million deal to push them from the Eastern Conference Finals to the NBA Finals. Coaches don’t get that kind of offer if the league thinks they’re the problem.
Brown’s exit likely influenced De’Aaron Fox’s. After years of a coaching carousel and front-office instability, the All-Star guard grew tired of the noise. Sacramento had no choice but to make a tough trade, losing its franchise point guard and one of the fastest end-to-end players in the league.
Now the Kings turn the page with Doug Christie. The Sacramento legend went 27-24 as interim head coach last season and has earned a full-time shot. Christie envisions a team that runs relentlessly, attacks the paint, and sprays threes. In January, during his best stretch as interim, the Kings went 10-4 while playing at the fifth-fastest pace (101.2) and hitting nearly 14 triples per game. The plan is to sustain that identity over a full year.
The offensive core remains Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan. Sabonis is still one of the league’s premier hubs: 19.1 points, 13.9 boards, and 6.0 assists per game, plus a surprising 41.7% from three on slightly higher volume. His dribble handoffs will be the backbone of Christie’s offense. LaVine looked good after arriving midseason, averaging 22.4 points with pristine shooting splits (51.1/44.6/87.4). He’s lethal on the catch, dangerous off the bounce, and a reliable closer. DeRozan, meanwhile, keeps chugging along at age 36, averaging 22.2 points as one of the NBA’s elite mid-range scorers and foul-drawers.
Keegan Murray starts next to that trio. He dipped to 12.4 points per game while his three-point percentage slid to 34.3%, a far cry from the 41.1% he shot as a rookie. Sacramento needs him back closer to that rookie version. His gravity as a shooter, his mid-range counters, and his fit with Sabonis are crucial to what Christie wants to do.
The big offseason addition was Dennis Schroder. Across three stops last year, he averaged 13.1 points and 5.4 assists, but Kings fans are dreaming of the EuroBasket version — 20.3 points, 7.2 assists, relentless paint pressure, and steady orchestration. The truth lies somewhere in between, but Schroder is a competitor, a capable table-setter, and a clear upgrade over last season’s patchwork point guard play.
Schroder’s arrival moves Malik Monk back to his Sixth Man role, where he’ll again hunt 15 points a night and make plays as a secondary creator. Keon Ellis and rookie Devin Carter will also see minutes. Ellis is already a trusted three-and-D reserve, while Carter is a high-energy guard who gets downhill, makes shots, and pushes tempo.
Rookies Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud add bench intrigue. Clifford, a versatile 6-foot-6 wing, should thrive in transition and play well off Sabonis. And he flashed an improved jumper at Summer League. If that holds, he’ll be a huge steal. Raynaud doesn’t pop the same way but can shoot, finish at the rim, and blend in seamlessly as a backup big.
Altogether, there’s a path to top-15 offensive efficiency. Critics scoffed at giving Schroder $15 million annually, but he should help Christie actually run the up-tempo, spacing-heavy system he wants. With Sabonis as the hub, LaVine’s shotmaking, and DeRozan’s consistency, the firepower is here. The issue: this group probably needs to be top-five offensively to offset the defense.
Defense
Christie wants conditioning to be a staple — he’s asked players to be ready to pick up 94 feet, harass ball-handlers, and shorten the clock. In theory, it sounds great. In practice, it mostly means Schroder running around while everyone else saves their legs. Without buy-in across the board, that type of pressure could just end up as wasted cardio.
LaVine and DeRozan remain below-average on the ball, and their team defense isn’t much better. Sabonis tries, but he lacks the length to protect the rim and the foot speed to disrupt actions higher on the floor. Opponents won’t be intimidated inside.
The bench provides more juice. Ellis is a versatile stopper who embraces any assignment, Carter plays with shades of Patrick Beverley and Alvarado, and Clifford has the tools to grow into a high-level wing defender. That trio could make second units miserable, though Christie will eventually need to mix them into closing groups if he wants balance.
Last season’s numbers paint the picture: Sacramento allowed 14.5 made threes per game (28th) and gave up 68.2% shooting at the rim (also 28th). Until the personnel changes, it’s hard to see real improvement.
Outlook
The Suns keep talking about hustle, culture, and alignment, but this roster doesn’t exactly scream grit-and-grind. Unless Green makes a leap and others hit career years, Phoenix probably lands in the 25–30 win range.
Still, this group could be feisty. Ott has the look of a coach who can squeeze effort out of his guys, much like Fernandez did in Brooklyn. That won’t translate into playoff contention, but it Sacramento isn’t going to tank. Vivek Ranadive wants his team to make the playoffs, and the front office builds accordingly. That’s why this team is filled with players firmly in their primes — or exiting them. The fit just isn’t right. There’s too much offense, too little defense.
The Kings can score, but they can’t stop anybody, and in a brutal Western Conference, that math won’t add up. They’re a strong bet to go Under 36.5 wins, and with Christie preaching pace and offense-first players driving the car, nightly Overs will be worth monitoring. Sacramento was 43-39-1 to the Over last year. The Kings should play more high-scoring games this season. make the Suns an ATS darling — especially at home, where fans are desperate to rally behind a team that doesn’t look joyless playing basketball.
Prediction: Under 36.5 Wins
