Tuley’s Takes – Saratoga Racing on Friday, June 4
As I wrote five weeks ago in my Kentucky Derby Weekend columns and three weeks ago for Preakness Weekend, we view the Triple Crown races as two-day betting events here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Even though we didn’t have Derby winner Golden Tempo go for the Triple Crown, these are still classic races that will attract significant betting handle (and most of it square money) and we also get quality races on the undercards where value can be found.
For the third straight year, the “Belmont Weekend” card is being run at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park in Elmont with Saturday’s featured Grade 1 Belmont Stakes being run at a mile and a quarter instead of the traditional mile and a half, but all of the above still applies. In fact, Golden Tempo does return off the layoff to run in the Belmont, though we won’t get a rubber match with Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, but most of the focus will still be on that race.
On Friday, we have four graded stakes at Saratoga, and then I’ll be back here with my current VSiN and former Daily Racing Form colleagues here at VSiN.com/horses on Friday with my takes on Saturday’s card.
Grade 2 Wonder Again Stakes (inner turf)
Friday, Saratoga Race 9, 4:28 p.m. ET
The mile-and-a-sixteenth Wonder Again for 3-year-old fillies is scheduled to be run on Saratoga’s inner turf course on Friday. #9 Pashima is the even-money, morning-line favorite, but she’s entered “main track only” and will only run if the race is taken off the turf. Advanced weather forecasts call for the rain to not arrive until Saturday, so I think we have to handicap this race without her (though you know I’d be trying to beat the chalk anyway).
#8 Lion Lake (8-5) inherits the favorite’s role, but we’re fine fading her as well off back-to-back third-place finishes and just two wins in seven career starts.
My top value play is #3 Coach Mazzula (6-1). She is the speed of the speed in this race, coming off a wire-to-wire win in the ungraded Hilltop Stakes at Laurel Park three weeks ago on Preakness Weekend. With Pashima not starting on turf, that’s one less filly to deal with that could press the pace and compromise Coach Mazzula’s chances. One closer does concern me in #5 Time to Dream (5-1), so I’ll include her in my exotics.
Tuley’s Take: #3 Coach Mazzula to Win, plus Exacta Box 3-5 with #5 Time to Dream.
Grade 1 Acorn Stakes
Friday, Saratoga Race 10, 5:08 p.m. ET
The Acorn Stakes is also for 3-year-old fillies and at a mile-and-an-eighth on the dirt, so it’s the third leg of the American Triple Tiara, the female counterpart to the Triple Crown for colts (though it doesn’t get nearly the hype). We get Kentucky Oaks winner Always a Runner as the 4-5, morning-line favorite after she skipped the Black-Eyed Susan.
Unfortunately, we don’t get a rubber match here as My Missy Mo, who was scratched by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. in the Oaks and then won the Black-Eyed Susan isn’t running Friday. We only have a five-filly field, but I’ve often found value in these short fields as the public usually loads up on the top contenders even more, feeling their chances are even better with fewer horses to beat.
But I’m going to go with the longest shot on the board, #4 Maximum Offer (15-1). There’s no bona fide front-runner in this small group, with most preferring to sit off the pace. Maximum Offer could inherit the lead here under jockey Florent Geroux and try to steal it with a soft pace, or could let another filly take the pace and come from behind like she did in her last win at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Granted, Maximum Offer is stepping up in class with the least graded stakes experience in the group, but I’ll take a flier that she can close the gap.
Tuley’s Take: #4 Maximum Offer to Win and Place.
Grade 1 New York Stakes (turf)
Friday, Saratoga Race 11, 5:46 p.m. ET
This is actually the richest stakes race on Friday’s card at $750,000 and is for older fillies and mares, 4 year olds and up.
We’re definitely looking for a closer in this mile-and-three-sixteenths turf race and while #9 Gezora (second choice at 3-1) fits that mold, my money will be on the nose of #2 Bellezza (12-1). Bellezza should get a ground-saving trip from the #2 post and she’s a very consistent closer who should be looming large heading down the stretch at a fair price. The running line that really jumps off the past performances for me is her come-from-way-behind victory in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl last August over this same track at Saratoga. I’ll tack on an Exacta Box with #9 Gezora in case the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner is too tough.
Tuley’s Take: #2 Bellezza to Win and Place, plus Exacta Box 2-9 with Gezora.
Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes
Friday, Saratoga Race 12, 6:25 p.m. ET
This is the last stakes on Friday’s card and also for fillies and mares, 4 year olds and up, but this is on the main dirt track like the Acorn.
And just like the Acorn, we have a short field, but again, I believe the longest shot on the board is going to be overlooked. #5 Nitrogen is a deserving 7-5 favorite, but I still don’t believe she should be that low of a price against a pretty competitive six-horse field. I could see this whole group separated by just a few lengths at the finish.
So, #4 Cassiar (15-1) is my value play. She only has two victories to her credit, her maiden win and an optional-claimer in her third start, but she did just miss by a length after rallying from far back in the Grade 2 Ruffian in her last Belmont-at-Aqueduct race. A repeat of that effort has her right there with this group.
Tuley’s Take: #4 Cassiar to Win and Place.
