The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, March 4. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 4
2023 Record: 227-212-2 (+1.52 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 4
Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
I’m a little nervous about the Clippers coming into this game on a back-to-back. With their injury-prone roster, that always means load management is a possibility. But Los Angeles’ meeting with the Minnesota Timberwolves was early in the day. So, the Clippers had plenty of time to rest. It’s also not like the travel from Minnesota to Milwaukee is all that grueling. That said, I’m playing the Clippers as an NBA best bet, as I still firmly believe in this team. And on a similar note, I still don’t fully buy what we’ve seen from the Bucks since the All-Star break.
In the five games Milwaukee has played since the break, the team is first in the league in defensive rating. That’s a drastic change when considering this team has been hovering around 20th in defensive rating for most of the season. So, let’s see how Milwaukee does against a Los Angeles team that is fifth in the league in offensive rating. The Clippers can patiently run actions with James Harden, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard until they find a matchup worth hunting. And I’m not sure the Bucks will have much of an answer for that. Meanwhile, Los Angeles should be alright defensively here. Giannis Antetokounmpo is obviously a wrecking ball, but the Clippers have two of the better wing defenders in basketball. They can also throw Terance Mann on Damian Lillard.
Bet: Clippers +5.5 (-110 – 2 units) & Clippers ML (+176 – 0.5 units)
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
Riding the Bulls this season has been a bit of a roller coaster. I have mostly had success when turning to Chicago, but the team has let me down a bit lately. However, I’m plenty comfortable going back to the Bulls with my NBA best bets tonight. It’s just hard to turn down this many points with a competitive basketball team. Chicago is coming off a 16-point loss to the Bucks, but that has been good luck for the Bulls recently. Since the start of last season, the Bulls are 9-0 against the spread off a divisional loss of 10 or more points. They have also won those games by an average of 12.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Kings are 3-13 ATS when playing at home after a road win in that span.
I also just think that this matchup is decent for Chicago. Of course, Sacramento can be extremely dangerous when the team gets out and running. But the Bulls will look to slow this game down a bit. That will make it hard for the Kings to find their rhythm. I also think Sacramento’s inability to defend the 3-point line can catch up to them here. The Bulls have some dangerous shooters in the backcourt right now. If they can get hot, this should be a very close game in the final minutes.
It’s also hard to ignore that De’Aaron Fox is questionable. I like Chicago’s chances of covering this number either way, but it’d obviously be a lot more likely if Fox isn’t out there.
Bet: Bulls +7 (-114 – 2 units)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
I’m usually nervous about the Lakers in these types of games. They just aren’t a very good 3-point shooting team, while the Thunder shoot the highest percentage from 3 in the NBA. That type of math is usually hard for me to ignore. However, Oklahoma City is coming off a very emotional win over the Phoenix Suns last night. The Thunder needed to dig deep and empty the gas tank to escape with a win there. So, they should be somewhat fatigued when they head to Los Angeles tonight. That should give the Lakers a huge edge, especially considering they had a day off yesterday. Los Angeles also realizes that the rest of the regular season is extremely important. So, the Lakers should come with a playoff mentality tonight.
The Lakers have also enjoyed this matchup more than most. On December 23rd, the team went into Oklahoma City and earned a 129-120 win as 3.5-point underdogs. The Lakers then earned a 112-105 win as 2-point ‘dogs in Los Angeles on January 15th. Los Angeles’ 3-point defense in both of those games was extremely impressive, and the team will look to turn in a similar effort here. I’m not sure the Thunder will shoot in the low 30s from deep, but the situation should help the Lakers quite a bit.
Overall, this just feels like a game that Los Angeles should win. Look for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to lead the way, and don’t be surprised if the role players step up.
Bet: Lakers ML (-114 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 4
Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
The Wizards are 29th in the league in adjusted defensive rating and they also play at the fastest pace in the NBA. That’s why Washington continues to get involved in high-scoring games, and this one has the highest total on the board. I looked at this slate and wanted to invest in the Jazz. So, I’m turning to rookie Taylor Hendricks. It jumped off the page that Hendricks’ point total is 9.5. Hendricks has scored at least 10 in two of his last five games, and he flirted with 30 minutes in all of those. He’s playing a bigger role in this offense than ever, and he now gets a dream matchup. Hendricks should be open often in this game. The lengthy forward should also feast in transition. So, I’m playing Hendricks to have at least 10 with my NBA player props. I also like his chances of scoring 15.
Bet: Hendricks Over 9.5 Points (-111 – 1.5 units) & Hendricks Alt Points 15+ (+360 – 0.5 units)
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