The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Tuesday, March 12. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 11
2023 Record: 247-243-2 (-3.80 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 12
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 pm ET
Victor Wembanyama played last night after having dealt with an injured ankle in the days before. Now, it’s unclear whether or not he’ll go against the Rockets. Gregg Popovich might not want to play him on the second night of a back-to-back. So, make sure you monitor the injury report for this one. But I like Houston to go out and beat San Antonio here. It’s just hard to overlook the fact that the Spurs are 27th in the NBA in offensive rating this season. That’s not what you want heading into a meeting with the Rockets. Houston is seventh in the league in defensive rating this year. And while the team has had some ups and downs, the defense has been pretty consistent.
Houston has also won four of its last five games and has covered in six in a row. Of course, losing Alperen Sengun to a significant ankle sprain doesn’t help. But the Spurs are just as miserable on the defensive end as they are on offense. That should help the Rockets generate decent looks, even without one of the game’s best offensive bigs. It’s also worth noting that Houston has won the last two games in this series by an average of 12.0 points per game. The Rockets also happen to be 11-1 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 under Ime Udoka. They won those games by an average of 17.1 points per game.
Bet: Rockets -4 (-110)
Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
The Celtics are playing the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. These spots have been poison for teams all year. It’s just very difficult to overcome fatigue in the NBA, and Boston also happens to be playing the final game of a five-game road trip tonight. Joe Mazzulla is a very good motivator and will try to drill home the importance of ending the trip with a win. But it’s going to be difficult for the Celtics to get up for this game, especially with it being in Salt Lake City. This is not a friendly environment for road teams, as evidenced by the Jazz being 19-12 straight-up and 21-9-1 ATS at home. Also, Boston sometimes struggles against weak opponents. Under Mazzulla, the team is 6-19 ATS versus opponents with win percentages between 40.0 and 49.0%.
I’d obviously feel better about taking Utah if the team was a bit healthier — and hadn’t traded away key pieces at the deadline. Covering against the Celtics without Lauri Markkanen won’t be easy. But the Jazz had covered in three games in a row before losing by 21 against the Denver Nuggets last game. They have also had two full days of rest to prepare for this one. Utah should have very fresh legs, which gives them a big advantage over a tired Boston team. The Jazz also have a high-energy backcourt in Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. Those two will give the Celtics some problems.
Overall, the situation here calls for a play on Utah to cover. I also think there’s a decent shot the Jazz win outright, so I’m sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Jazz +7 (-110 – 2 units) & Jazz ML (+222 – 0.25 units)
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
You never quite know what you’re getting from this Kings team. But if they’re playing to their potential, they should be a difficult matchup for the Bucks. Milwaukee has been much better defensively under Doc Rivers. But it’s going to be hard for the Bucks to avoid old habits completely. And this Kings team has a lot of speed in the backcourt. De’Aaron Fox is a blur with the basketball in his hands, so he will put Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley in a lot of uncomfortable situations. And Malik Monk will do the same when he checks in.
Milwaukee could also have a lot of trouble dealing with Domantas Sabonis. When these teams met in January, Sabonis had 21 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds on 9-of-10 shooting. The Bucks had no answer for him and barely escaped with a home win, as Lillard hit a game-winner in overtime. Now that this game will be played in Sacramento, it’s hard to see the Kings failing to get revenge — though they did cover in that first meeting.
It does help the Bucks that Khris Middleton appears to be set to return tonight. But this will be his first game under Rivers, so things could be sloppy early on. Milwaukee is also getting Sacramento at a bad time. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Rockets. Under Mike Brown, Sacramento is 23-7 ATS when coming off a home loss. The team won those games by an average of 8.3 points per game. The Kings are also 22-2 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games in that span. And they won those by an average of 11.3 points per game. You just can’t keep this Sacramento team down.
Bet: Kings +2 (-114 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 12
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
Rebounding isn’t a strength for Myles Turner. However, I like the idea of playing his rebound total with tonight’s NBA player props. Turner has had at least eight rebounds in six of his last nine games. And he had at least 10 in four of those. The big man now goes on the road to face a small Thunder team. Oklahoma City has the second-lowest rebound rate in the NBA this season and the team is completely fine with that. The Thunder know they can beat teams in different ways. But they’re going to get killed on the glass in the process. That said, Turner should grab at least eight rebounds tonight. And I like his chances of reaching double digits. Over the last 10 games, Turner is averaging 14.8 rebound chances per game. He could get more than that in tonight’s up-and-down game. He just needs to secure them.
Bet: Turner Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115 – 1.5 units) & Turner Alt Rebounds 10+ (+200 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
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