The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Monday, May 6th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 6
NBA Best Bets Today – May 6
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
These teams only combined to score 205 points in Game 1, but I like them to go Over tonight’s total. I just don’t see a scenario in which Denver will struggle offensively two games in a row. Nikola Jokic uncharacteristically went 11 for 25 from the field and 2 for 9 in Game 1. And while I know Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid have the size to make him uncomfortable, I just don’t think shutting down Jokic like that is something that can be done regularly. After all, Jokic averaged 33.3 points per game on 58.4% shooting from the floor and 40.0% shooting from 3 against the Timberwolves during the regular season. So, we know he is capable of getting himself going against this team. And I also think Jamal Murray is in for a much bigger Game 2. I know he’s dealing with a banged-up calf right now, but he was just 6 for 14 in Game 1. He’ll be a lot more aggressive in looking for his shot in this game, and the Nuggets will make it their goal to do a better job of hunting mismatches for him. And if Murray and Jokic are better in this must-win game, the rest of the Nuggets will have a much easier time scoring.
If Denver can easily crack the 100-point mark, this game should fly Over this low number. The Timberwolves proved in Game 1 that what we saw in the series against the Phoenix Suns was no fluke. This offense is better than it showed for most of the regular season, and a lot of that has to do with Anthony Edwards making significant in-season strides as a decision maker. And as long as he continues to make the right reads, Minnesota will have no trouble scoring against this Denver defense. That makes it all the more important that the Nuggets find their groove offensively, as it’s likely they’ll need to win this series by channeling their ability to execute at a high level offensively.
The Over is also 72-41 when the Nuggets are coming off a home loss under Mike Malone. And the average total points scored in those games was 221.3 points per game. So, Malone should be trusted to make some adjustments and get his offense going here.
Bet: Over 206.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 6
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
The Knicks are going to do whatever they can to make Tyrese Haliburton uncomfortable in this series. Of course, Haliburton will still find some pick-and-roll success, and he’ll also have some games in which he has it going from deep. But teams found success against the Pacers star by blitzing him and getting the ball out of his hands early in possessions, and by being physical with him for 48 minutes. And if New York looks to do that, it’s Pascal Siakam that will have a world of opportunity. This is going to be a series in which a lot will be decided by the matchup between Siakam and OG Anunoby. I tend to think Siakam will do a good job of finding ways to be effective, even with Anunoby draped all over him. And I do think there’s a good chance Siakam’s assist numbers look good in this series. With an increased usage rate, he’ll just have more chances to find his teammates. And Anunoby is a great wing defender, so Siakam will also have to give it up occasionally. That should lead to some dimes. Siakam also averaged 4.0 assists per game in his two meetings with the Knicks after the trade. So, this number is very reachable and I love it at plus-money odds.
Bet: Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (+114 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 351-379-3 (-9.70 units)
