NBA best bets and analysis for Friday, November 24th
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Best Bets
Record: 24-14-1 | Units: +9.16u | ROI: 22.46%
Boston Celtics (-6, 223.5) at Orlando Magic
It might be the third game in four days for Orlando, but the team is coming off a day off – as is the whole league – and each of these games have come at home. The Magic are in the midst of a six-game homestand, and those give these teams more practice time and a rest advantage over teams like the Celtics which are playing their fifth road game in six contests. Boston has also proven to be somewhat overvalued by the market.
The Celtics beat the Bucks on Wednesday night in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated, but the failed cover dropped them to 0-4 ATS in their last four games. On the road this season Boston is 6-3 SU/2-6-1 ATS. That is a problem overall, but it’s a bigger problem when facing one of the best home teams in the NBA. Orlando is 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season, and just took out the defending champions outright on Wednesday as 4-point underdogs.
The Magic have also given the Celtics a run for their money recently. They went 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS against them last season, and much of that is due to the on-court matchups. Orlando – which is now fourth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency – has the length to handle Boston’s wings. They have multiple defensive options for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the latter of which is questionable to play today.
Play: Magic (+6) – Playable to (+4.5)
Phoenix Suns (-6, 225.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
On Tuesday I played Phoenix and they fell right on the number, but it was clear the Suns were doing everything possible to improve their point differential for the In-Season Tournament. On their final possession Devin Booker loaded up a 3-point attempt despite a 13-point lead, which seemed to ruffle the feathers of Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups. It’s hard to believe Phoenix’s goals change tonight against Memphis, which could be more short-handed than usual.
Desmond Bane is questionable to play due to a foot sprain, and with Memphis officially eliminated from the tournament this could be an opportunity to get him some rest. Even if he does play, the Grizzlies are scrambling for some sort of offensive creation. They signed both Jaylen Nowell and Shaq Harrison via a hardship waiver, according to reports. This could mean a backcourt rotation tonight of Derrick Rose, Jacob Gilyard, John Konchar and the aforementioned Nowell and Harrison. That is hardly a rotation to go to bat with against the potent offense of Phoenix.
Memphis has covered three of their last five games, but as we saw against Houston last time out, this team lacks any true offensive threat. Phoenix is motivated to win and win by margin tonight, so I’ll take the chance it can do so against the thin Grizzlies.
Play: Suns (-7.5) – Playable up to (-8.5)
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5, 220)
The Timberwolves improved to 7-0 SU and ATS at home after a win and cover over Philadelphia on Wednesday night. Tonight, they get the Kings who are on a busy and brutal road trip. Sacramento is playing its fifth game in eight days today. It just finished a back-to-back in New Orleans in which it was swept, and now must finish this six-game road trip with one of the strongest home teams in the NBA.
One of the big issues for the Kings is that their defense is beginning to show its true colors. Their last three opponents have averaged 120.5 points per 100 possessions, and they have no true defensive stopper for Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns. Domantas Sabonis has also run into a few true centers recently – namely Jonas Valanciunas – and in both games Sacramento was crushed on the glass. This likely happens once again tonight in Minnesota.
The market seems to be both overvaluing Sacramento and undervaluing Minnesota. Evidence to the first point comes in the last two games for the Kings, where I bet the Pelicans to win both outright because the market decided to make Sacramento road favorites for some reason. Tonight, we get to lay just four points against them in a matchup that does not work in their favor. I’ll take my chances with the undefeated home team tonight.
Play: Timberwolves (-4) – Playable up to (-5)
Best Bets
Magic (+6)
Suns (-7.5)
Timberwolves (-4)
