NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, December 11th
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Best Bets
Record: 34-21-1 | Units: +11.56u | ROI: 19.5%
Indiana Pacers (-8, 243.5) at Detroit Pistons
Indiana hits the road after four days in Las Vegas, and it does not seem to be a spot that is conducive to winning. The Pacers have been playing high-intensity basketball for the last week, and now they will be in Detroit to take on a desperate Pistons team which is on an 0-19 SU/5-13-1 ATS slide. They have played one game in the last five days and should be ready to catch Indiana after a tough loss in the In-Season Tournament final. Detroit – as surprising as this might sound – also does some things well which could help them steal one from Indiana tonight.
The Pistons are 29th in non-garbage time offensive rating, but they face the 29th-ranked defense in non-garbage time this evening. Detroit takes a high volume of shots in the restricted area – they are fifth in frequency of attempts at the rim – and Indiana happens to allow the highest frequency of shots within four feet. The Pistons have also generated the seventh-most putback plays per 100 missed shot attempts (21.2) and they are 15th in points per 100 misses. The Pacers are 27th and 28th in those categories defensively this season. Detroit will also be willing to run. It ranks sixth in transition frequency off live rebounds and they get a defense which ranks last in defensive efficiency in those situations.
It’s ugly, but the scheduling spot is a good one and the Pistons do well enough in certain categories that taking these points at home is worth it.
Play: Pistons (+7.5) – Playable to (+7)
Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 229.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas is dealing with a litany of injuries right now. Kyrie Irving, Grant Williams, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber are all out with injury tonight. Two of those names – Williams and Green – are quality defenders for a team which ranks 23rd in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. Their absences are why this number is so short for the Mavericks, but the side is not where I’ll be looking tonight.
Memphis is the third-least efficient offense in the NBA. It averages 108.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time overall, and only 90.7 points per 100 plays in halfcourt situations. Against above average defensive teams this offense has struggled to produce, but here against Dallas should be a different situation. The Mavericks not only give up 116.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, but they also play at the eighth quickest pace. The Grizzlies run on 30.4% of their live rebounds and will be more than willing to speed this game up. Dallas also gives up a high rate of corner 3-point attempts, something Memphis shoots a high-volume of. All of these factors should lead to a better offensive evening for the Grizzlies.
Play: Grizzlies TT OVER 113.5 (-106) – Playable to (-125)
Best Bets
Pistons (+7.5)
Grizzlies TT OV 113.5 (-106)
