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NBA Best Bets
Record: 80-60-2 | Units: +15.4 | ROI: 10.1%
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets (-3, 236.5)
Golden State might not be winning consistently, but that is no fault of its offense. The Warriors have averaged 122.9 points per 100 possessions over their last six games. In that same span they are putting up 109.4 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, and they are second in effective field goal percentage (60.9%).
You might be thinking that six games might seem like an arbitrary sample size, but it coincides with the return of Draymond Green. Green is a great defender, but he runs the Warriors offense better than anyone. It is no surprise that Golden State has exploded offensively with him back on the floor and time to get him integrated.
This leads us to this spot against Brooklyn.
The Nets are going to be without Ben Simmons once again. That is a massive blow for this team’s defense, especially in the halfcourt. Golden State will be able to continue its efficient ways when the game slows down tonight. The Warriors will also be without Andrew Wiggins tonight. But, given his inconsistent play that is not the biggest loss. It could also mean more minutes and usage for Jonathan Kuminga, who has been brilliant for the last two weeks.
Play: Warriors ML (+110) – Playable to (+100)
*Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5, 246.5) at Atlanta Hawks
This is the perfect situational spot on the schedule for Atlanta to take advantage of. Los Angeles is playing its third game in four nights with no rest after a win in Miami. It is also the last contest of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for the Clippers. They have played very well over this span – 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS – but this could be an easy spot to slip up.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are not only playing good basketball – 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in their last four games – but this is the final game of a six-game homestand. The scheduling advantage is massive for Atlanta, even if this is a third game in four nights for them as well.
The Hawks’ offense has averaged 127.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time during this homestand, and they have +5.1 net rating in those contests. Atlanta is also a team that plays a style that can bother Los Angeles. The Hawks are seventh in transition frequency off live rebounds (31.6%) and 12th in offensive efficiency in those possessions (124.1). The Clippers have trouble containing fast teams that play in transition, and guards that are quick that lead those teams tend to have success.
Los Angeles has been mostly spot-proof during this road trip, but this is too good of a situation for Atlanta to pass up.
Play: Hawks TT OV 119.5 (-115) | Hawks ML (+135)
NBA Best Bets
Warriors ML (+110)
Hawks TT OV 119.5 (-115)
Hawks ML (+135)
