NBA: Best bets and analysis for Monday, January 29th

Jonathan Von Tobel (78-52-1 | Units: +22.0u) gives his daily NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, January 29th.

Jan 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) dribbles the ball as Oklahoma City Thunder guard Isaiah Joe (11) plays defense in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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NBA Best Bets

Record: 78-52-1 | Units: +22.0u | ROI: 15.5%

Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 226.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

The market and the masses continue to sleep on the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Clippers continue to prove them wrong. 

On Saturday, Los Angeles closed as 6.5-point underdogs against Boston and won by 19 points. In the month of January the Clippers are now 11-2 SU/10-3 ATS with a +6.1 spread differential. Since the beginning of December they are 22-4 SU/18-8 ATS and they are covering 4.1 points per game.

Despite the incredible returns at the window the market still seems to be hesitant to back Los
Angeles consistently. The number this morning has gone against the Clippers yet again, and once more I’ll be pushing back on that move.

Bettors might consider this a poor spot for Los Angeles after a big win on Saturday, but the result of Saturday helps the Clippers here. No starter played more than 29 minutes in the win over the Celtics. Paul George – who was dealing with a sore groin – played only 22 minutes. In total, all 12 players who logged minutes in the game played at least 10 minutes. This team is well rested after a day off.

Cleveland is certainly playing great basketball this month – it is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS – but this matchup doesn’t bode well. The Cavaliers lack true wing defenders for both George and Kawhi Leonard. Los Angeles also has a big that can space the floor in Daniel Theis, allowing them to bring Jarrett Allen out of the paint. Evan Mobley might be back on the floor, but he is another non-shooter the Clippers can play off of.

This one is simple. Los Angeles has been a team that I have been riding regularly in this column to great results. There is no reason to jump off the train now.

Play: Clippers (-2) – Playable to (-3)

Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets (-1, 232)

Is it too simple to chalk this play up to the Nets just being a bad team?

Since Dec. 14 Brooklyn is 5-17 SU/4-17-1 ATS and failing to cover by 4.8 points per game. The Nets offense has averaged just 111.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and as a result they have a -5.8 net rating. This is not a team that should be favored over a team like the Jazz, which are well coached and healthy.

Meanwhile, Utah is the complete antithesis of Brooklyn. It is 17-7 SU/18-6 ATS with a +8.3 spread differential. Its offense has been an efficient machine, averaging 122.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Jazz should be able to pick apart a defense which comes into this contest 17th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (116.7).

This is a simple play all about the number. Utah is playing extremely well, and it should be rated as a team that is much better than Brooklyn. The market is getting this right in pushing this in the Jazz’s direction, but we are not far enough.

Play: Jazz (PK) – Playable to (-1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves at *Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 227.5)

Minnesota is not playing its best basketball right now, but this game tonight provides a very good opportunity. Oklahoma City is coming in on no rest and it is playing its fifth game in seven days. The Thunder are 5-2 SU and ATS this season when playing on no rest, but the added factor of revenge should help push the Timberwolves to victory here.

Just over a week ago Minnesota held a double-digit lead over Oklahoma City in the fourth quarter at home. The Timberwolves were outscored 28-14 in the final frame, and would go on to lose the game. That loss was the first of this 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS slide that Minnesota finds itself in right now.

This is a risky play because the wheels seem to be coming off for the Timberwolves. However, the situation calls for a play on the road team here, and the market agrees. The line is down a full point this morning. Let’s take one more shot in this series and back the road underdog tonight.

Play: Timberwolves ML (+120) – Playable to (+110)

NBA Best Bets

Clippers (-2)

Jazz (PK)

Timberwolves ML (+120)