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NBA Best Bets
Record: 109-103-3 | Units: -1.65 | ROI: -0.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets (-5, 211.5)
Jamal Murray is questionable once again for Denver which has hit a small skid. The Nuggets have dropped their last two games both SU and ATS, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Murray is unlikely to return today, judging by head coach Michael Malone’s comments on Friday. That should open the door for the visiting team this afternoon.
Donovan Mitchell made his return from knee and nose injuries on Friday and led Cleveland to a win over Philadelphia. The Cavaliers did not cover, but Mitchell led the team to its highest individual game offensive rating since Feb. 10. Mitchell himself scored only 12 points, but he and Garland combined for 20 assists and seven Cavaliers scored in double-figures.
This looks like a better spot for Cleveland today. Denver is thin at point guard without Murray. Opposing teams have attacked that position on defense since Murray’s injury, and that should be no different today. The Cavaliers also have some size to combat the Nuggets’ overwhelming rebounding ability. They are also desperately trying to fend off the New York Knicks for the third seed in the Eastern Conference.
Best Bet: Cavaliers (+5) – Playable to (+4)
Los Angeles Clippers (-15.5, 215) at Charlotte Hornets
Los Angeles got a massive win and cover on Friday night in Orlando to snap an 0-4 ATS slide. The Clippers are still an abysmal 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games, so laying a number like this is out of the question. But, they are potentially showing some life on defense.
The last two opponents for Los Angeles – Philadelphia and Orlando – were held to 1.085 points per possession. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have put together some very solid defensive performances on this road trip, and that should continue tonight against Charlotte.
The Hornets’ offense has fallen off a cliff. They have averaged just 103.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage over the last 18 games. Against opponents who rank 10th or better in net rating over that span Charlotte has been outscored by 19.1 points every 100 possessions. This team is clearly looking forward to the end of the season, and we should get another lackluster effort today.
As stated earlier, the number is too large to lay right now. Los Angeles needs to prove it can cover numbers like this. The Clippers should be able to put forth a very strong effort on defense though. That, on top of a very slow pace – Charlotte and Los Angeles are 22nd and 23rd respectively in pace since the All-Star break – should keep the Hornets under their team total.
Bet Bet: Hornets TT UN 99.5 (-125) – Playable at (-125) or better
Miami Heat (-10.5, 217.5) at Washington Wizards
Miami is finally healthy and the returns looked astounding on Friday night. The Heat obliterated the Trail Blazers in South Beach. They limited the Blazers to 0.804 points per possession for the game and won by 60 points. Now that Miami is healthy it is locking into playoff form, and lowly opponents like Washington should not stand a chance.
The Wizards have been somewhat competitive recently and enter this contest 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five games. However, each of those contests was against teams ranked 20th or lower in non-garbage time net rating. Since the All-Star break Washington has a -19.5 net rating and has averaged just 107.3 points every 100 possessions against top 10 defenses.
Much like Friday, the Heat should be motivated here. They are 1.5 games up on the 76ers for homecourt in the play-in, and only one game back from the Pacers for the sixth seed. Seeding aside, this team is clearly trying to get on the same page before the postseason begins. They covered every number against Portland on Friday, and the same should be expected here.
Best Bets: Heat (-11) – Playable to (-11.5)
Dallas Mavericks (-1, 230.5) at Houston Rockets
This is a risky play considering Luka Doncic’s questionable status for the night, so keep that in mind before placing the bet. Having said that, Dallas is playing incredible basketball and Houston continues to get away with murder.
The Rockets improved to 13-1 SU in March with a win over the Jazz on Friday night, but they failed to cover. Houston is still an impressive 12-2 ATS this month, but the schedule has been very opportunistic. Nine of their opponents rank 20th or lower in both non-garbage time net rating and defensive rating. The opponents who do not sit their best players, like Oklahoma City did last week with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That is not the case here against the red-hot Mavericks.
The reality here is that I have been looking for a chance to play against Houston. Its power rating is at its highest point of the season. Just look at this opener, which is the exact number Dallas was laying at the open for its second game in Sacramento. The Rockets have done well to take advantage of an easy schedule, but the market has come too far. This play comes with a risk of Doncic being ruled out, so keep an eye on the report before making it yourself.
Best Bet: Mavericks (-2.5) – Playable at (-2.5) or better
NBA Best Bets
Cavaliers (+5)
Hornets TT UN 99.5 (-125)
Heat (-11)
Mavericks (-2.5)
Remaining Games
Philadelphia 76ers (-11, 218.5) at Toronto Raptors
RJ Barrett is questionable to play as he makes his way back from an extended absence, and his potential return could not come at a better time. Not only is Toronto dealing with the usual injuries, but it also lost Ochai Agbaji to a painful hip injury last time out against New York. Barrett will help an extremely thin backcourt if he can play. The market hasn’t moved much from the opening number on either side or total. This game fits the parameters of a team with everything to play for (Philadelphia) against an eliminated team (Toronto), and that has led to some blowouts. Still, the 76ers are not a team worth laying such a number with.
Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 224) at Brooklyn Nets
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are questionable with injuries as usual for Los Angeles. That would usually mean nothing, but since both are dealing with problems bettors should exercise some caution here. The Lakers are also playing their fourth game in six days, all of which have come on the road. It’s a negative scheduling spot with injury concerns, but the market has still pushed this number up a point while the total has risen to 225.5 consensus. Those are moves that would indicate a belief that Los Angeles will have its stars on the floor.
Golden State Warriors (-8, 227.5) at San Antonio Spurs
Golden State is in San Antonio for the last game of a five-game road trip today. This is also the fifth game in eight days for the Warriors, all of which have come on the road. The situation is negative, but Golden State has dominated away from home. It is 3-1 SU and ATS on this current trip, and on the season the team is 21-15 SU/25-11 ATS on the road. Jonathan Kuminga and Klay Thompson are questionable to play, but it’s hard to argue with these results on the road. The market seemingly believes, as this number is 8.5 consensus as of this morning.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks (-3, 215.5)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was upgraded this morning from doubtful to questionable for this contest against New York. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed the last two games with a quad injury, but it would seem he is trending toward a return here. This is obviously a massive test for the Knicks who have been steamrolling through a weak schedule. New York is 7-2 SU/6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games with a +13.5 net rating. It has played just one team in the top half of the league in net rating though. Once Gilgeous-Alexander is officially active it wouldn’t be a shock to see this game close at -1 for the home team.
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves (-8, 212.5)
Minnesota is coming off of a massive win in Denver on Friday night in which it clinched the series tiebreaker over the Nuggets. The Timberwolves now get a sleepy spot at home against the Bulls in which they could be caught napping. The team is also listing Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jordan McLaughlin as questionable. If there was a time to give any one of these three a night off – especially Edwards who has averaged 37.1 minutes per game with a 33.4% usage rate since Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury – it would be this game here.
Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings (-11, 224.5)
One could make the argument this contest has the makings of a beatdown for Utah. Sacramento must have an awful taste in its mouth after losing a two-game series at home to Dallas this week. The losses nearly cement the Kings in the play-in with nine games left in the season. The Jazz are beat up. Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen are out tonight, and John Collins is questionable. It would make all the sense in the world that Sacramento would come in here and let off some steam as a big favorite, but it has not done well in this role (21-28 ATS as a favorite; 11-21 ATS as a home favorite). The Kings are also short-handed, as they lost Malik Monk to a sprained right MCL.
