NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, December 12th
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Best Bets
Record: 34-23-1 | Units: +9.40u | ROI: 15.3%
Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5, 235.5) at Dallas Mavericks
The injury report for Los Angeles includes both Anthony Davis and LeBron James, but the Lakers have had two days off since their win over Indiana in Las Vegas so both should be available. If that turns out to be true then Los Angeles should have an upper hand on the floor against a below average defense playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Dallas has trouble defending the restricted area. The Mavericks allow opponents to shoot 70.6% at the rim this season. That is going to be an issue against the Lakers which take 37.2% of their shots within four feet and shoot 70.1% on those attempts. Los Angeles also loves to run off live rebounds. It ranks eighth in transition frequency off live rebounds and 12th in offensive efficiency on those plays (122.3). Dallas tends to struggle defending in transition off live rebounds. Opponents average 129.6 points per 100 plays in transition off live rebounds against the Mavericks; that is the fourth-worst rate in the league.
The injuries are also plentiful for Dallas. Grant Williams could be back tonight, but Kyrie Irving should miss this contest with a heel injury and Josh Green is questionable at best. It’s a matchup that already works for Los Angeles, so it’s worth the risk of betting this side early.
Play: Lakers (-1.5) – Playable to (-2.5)
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns (-3, 232.5)
The market clearly believes this is a contest that will have some offensive fireworks, and it is hard to argue against that given who is on the court tonight. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are among the best scorers in the league, and Bradley Beal will be on the court for Phoenix. This number reflects that thinking, as the total is up two points to 234.5 but not everything is as it seems with this contest.
Neither offense has been dominant this season. The Warriors rank 15th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (115.1) and the Suns come into this game 10th in the same category (117.3). In fact, Golden State has been a better defensive team this season.
The Warriors have limited opponents to 114.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They allow the fewest shots at the rim and their transition defense is fifth in opponent points added per 100 possessions.
Phoenix has been stronger along the perimeter. It ranks fourth in 3-point attempts allowed and eighth in opponent 3-point shooting (35.5%). Their halfcourt defense is also 12th in points allowed per 100 plays (96.5).
This is all leading to a bet on the Under for me tonight. We’re seeing some pushback in the market on 234.5 and I agree with it. Neither team is particularly high in pace rankings this season. The Warriors are 12th (100.46) and the Suns are 27th (97.70). Both teams are better than average defensive teams, and both have benches that struggle with offensive efficiency when the stars leave the floor. I would expect the market buyback becomes more prevalent and the number closes lower than where it is as of this morning.
Play: UNDER 234.5 – Playable to 233.5
Best Bets
Lakers (-1.5)
Warriors/Suns UNDER 234.5
