Jonathan Von Tobel’s NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, January 16th
Welcome to my daily column of best bets in the National Basketball Association! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis. Also, subscribe to Hardwood Handicappers, our daily NBA betting podcast, wherever you get your podcasts!
NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports
Best Bets
Record: 63-40-1 | Units: +19.80u | ROI: 17.65%
*Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 236)
Los Angeles fell to 17-4 SU/13-8 ATS in their last 21 games after falling to Minnesota on Sunday, but there is no need to worry about a dropoff coming. It was the third game in five days – two of which were on the road – and Ivica Zubac was a late scratch with calf soreness. Zubac will not play again today, but the Clippers can overcome his absence against an opponent like the Thunder that like the size a team like the Timberwolves has.
This is also a very unfavorable situation for Oklahoma City. The Thunder lost a tight game to the Lakers last night, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 34 minutes on a beat up knee. Oklahoma City is playing its third game in four nights tonight, and it is part of a busy stretch for the Thunder, as this will be their ninth game in 15 days! The chance that Gilgeous-Alexander misses this game is high, and even if he plays the spot is less than ideal.
Los Angeles is also equipped to handle Oklahoma City. The Thunder like true size along the wing, and tonight they face two of the better two-way wings in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. George in particular has been on an incredible run, averaging 26.0 points and 5.1 rebounds on 51.1% shooting from the floor. This play is all about the situation for me, so I’ll lay the early number.
Play: Clippers (-6) – Playable to (-6.5)
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (-4, 243.5)
The larger the sample size grows for the Phoenix Suns’ big three, the more amazing the returns become. When Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are on the floor together the Suns have a +27.8 net rating, and they average 139.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Phoenix’s starting lineup – Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic with Beal, Booker and Durant – has +22.6 net rating, according to Cleaning The Glass. All the Suns needed was a bit of continuity and they are starting to get that. As a result, they are 7-3 SU/4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games with a +11.5 net rating. This team is on the verge of a run it would seem, and that could start tonight against Sacramento.
Since the beginning of January the Kings have been playing .500 basketball. They are 4-4 SU and ATS, but the bigger issue is a defense that is starting to show its true colors. In those eight games Sacramento has allowed 119.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They have no real defensive options for that of Durant, Beal or Booker, so it is likely that this will be a continuation of the offensive dominance the Suns have shown with their three best players. It is also a less than favorable spot for the Kings, who are playing their fourth game in seven days which also happens to be the last of a five-game road trip.
I have been hesitant to jump on the bandwagon with Phoenix because of the inconsistent availability of their star players. However, the minutes with those three on the floor are growing, and as someone who was high on this trio before the season began, I have been waiting for this moment. Let’s test it out, and play them as short home favorites tonight.
Play: Suns (-4) – Playable to (-5)
Best Bets
Clippers (-6)
Suns (-4)
