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NBA Best Bets
Record: 101-86-3 | Units: +8.9 | ROI: 4.4%
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 236)
Jalen Williams was present at shootaround this morning, and that is enough for me to take a chance and lay it with Oklahoma City here. The Thunder are playing their third consecutive home game tonight and coming off a day of rest. Indiana comes off a rest day as well, but traveled from a road game in Orlando on Sunday. This equates to a small advantage for the home team.
Oklahoma City also has a massive advantage on the floor. The Thunder should be able to score at an extremely efficient level tonight against the Pacers. Indiana has allowed 117.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time since acquiring Pascal Siakam. It has no true defensive option for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are averaging the fourth-most points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break (118.7), and that should continue tonight.
This comes across as a cheap number by my measure. If Williams plays this should close a bit higher, but to say only 3.5 points separate these teams on a neutral court is incorrect. Not only does Oklahoma City have an on-court advantage, but it has a better scheduling situation and a cheap number.
Best Bet: Thunder (-6) – Playable to (-7)
NBA Best Bets
Thunder (-6)
Remaining Games
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-3.5, 215)
OG Anunoby should return from injury tonight for New York, but so too should Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia. Maxey has not played since March 3 against Dallas, and his return is massive. The 76ers averaged just 104.6 points per 100 possessions without Maxey in the four games he missed. His presence obviously makes a massive difference against what should be a full strength Knicks squad tonight. Anunoby has been incredible in his time with New York. He improves their net rating by 30.1 points every 100 possessions on the floor, and the Knicks allow just 0.995 points per possession in those minutes. The market has jumped all over New York due to the news. The numbers are evidence as to why, but it is the first game back in over a month for Anunoby. It wouldn’t be a shock to see some rust from him early.
Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies (-3, 218.5)
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. will not play tonight for Memphis, and that is why this market has flipped from the overnight opener. However, Washington is not exactly healthy either. Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes are listed as out for the Wizards. That means there are no other active players for the center position. Eugene Omoruyi and Anthony Gill could play the five, but both are 6-foot-8. Both teams come in with equal rest as well, so there is no true advantage to jump on. This is an easy game to scratch off the card, given the unknowns for both rosters.
Houston Rockets (-1, 224.5) at *San Antonio Spurs
Houston is 4-1 SU in March and 6-0 ATS in its last six games. It also comes into this game with a rest advantage after a day off. However, injuries are piling up for the Rockets, and even with questions regarding Victor Wembanyama’s status it’s hard to get to this number. Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore will not play tonight due to injury. In the minutes without Sengun, Houston averages just 110.4 points every 100 possessions. Having said that, this is a negative spot for San Antonio. It is coming in on no rest while playing its third game in four days. Should Wembanyama play, Houston will struggle to score even more with him at the five. The market is inching toward the home team here, so there seems to be a small belief Wembanyama sees the floor tonight.
*Boston Celtics (-6.5, 235.5) at Utah Jazz
Early on Monday the Boston Celtics had their entire starting five in question for the matchup with Portland. Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis ended up sitting, but both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum started and led the Celtics to a win and cover. Their status tonight is the real question, and until that is clear it is unwise to jump into this contest. Tatum and Brown could both play, both could sit or one of the two could play while the other sits. Those who want to bet on this one are going to have to be in tune with the news cycle today. Utah was blown out in Denver last time out, but comes in on two days of rest. If Boston rests their stars the home team would have a good opportunity for an upset win tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 218.5)
How in the world would anyone feel comfortable betting this game? Kyle Anderson, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Monte Morris are all questionable to play for Minnesota. Karl-Anthony Towns obviously remains out, so this could be a team missing three of its starting five tonight. On the other end, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are questionable themselves. Both missed the game against Milwaukee with the same injuries listed today, so there is a likelihood both play tonight. However, I have been burned in plenty of spots like this before. The number should not move much if George and Leonard go, as it is already shaded in that direction.
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings (-1, 235)
Milwaukee’s west coast road trip has not gone particularly well. It is 1-2 SU and ATS with the lone win coming over the Los Angeles Clippers which sat their two best players. The defense which looked fixed for six games has regressed to allow 123.3 points per 100 possessions on this trip. That is obviously an issue when facing a team that has the offensive upside Sacramento does. Having said that, the Kings have been inconsistent themselves. They are 7-8 SU/5-10 ATS in their last 15 games with the second-worst defensive rating in non-garbage time (121.1). Keegan Murray is also questionable to play, which hurts given the need for size is paramount in this meeting. The market swung toward Milwaukee last night, but it is slowly making its way back to the Kings. Given how the Bucks have been playing, they should not be a road favorite to many.
