NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, March 26th
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 107-98-3 | Units: +1.9 | ROI: 0.9%
Golden State Warriors (-1.5, 219.5) at Miami Heat
The market still has faith in the Golden State Warriors it would seem. Despite a 5-7 SU and ATS record in March – and recent struggles on offense – the Warriors not only opened as a road favorite, but have been supported at the window. Perhaps this is just blind faith in a team that is 18-15 SU/22-11 ATS on the road. That is not something I can get behind.
This month Golden State has averaged just 115.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. In three games against teams which rank 10th or higher in defensive efficiency they are 0-3 SU with a 104.8 offensive rating. Miami is one of those opponents, which comes into this game allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler will be on the floor tonight as well, meaning the Heat will have their two best defenders.
Miami also has plenty to play for here. The Heat are a game out of sixth in the Eastern Conference. They are not only trying to make their way out of the play-in, but also trying to keep their lead over the 76ers who are a half-game behind them.
At this point Golden State is not at a point where they should be laying a number on the road against a similarly rated opponent. Miami has their best players available – and could be getting healthier if both Kevin Love and Jaime Jaquez play tonight – and have plenty of motivation. I’ll take my chances with the home underdog here.
Best Bet: Heat (+2.5) – Playable to (PK)
*Dallas Mavericks at *Sacramento Kings (-1, 237.5)
This is a massive game in the Western Conference playoff race. Sacramento and Dallas sit sixth and seventh respectively in the conference standings. This series – the two teams will meet again on Thursday – will go a long way toward deciding which team gets the final playoff spot. Given how important this contest is we can expect a slower affair, and that is likely why we’ve seen this total drop four points from the overnight.
Since we’ve been priced out of playing the total here, let’s look to a side instead.
This might be a huge game, but the situation is poor for Sacramento. The Kings are playing their fifth game in seven days on no rest. Included in that stretch is a three-game road trip along the east coast. The Mavericks are playing on a back-to-back as well, but this is just their second game in five days. The rest advantage is wildly in the favor of the road team here.
Sacramento is 2-0 SU and ATS against Dallas this season, but they faced the duo of Irving and Doncic just once. They also have not seen this team since the additions of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, both of whom have been positive additions for the Mavericks.
Best Bet: Mavericks ML (-105) – Playable to (-115)
NBA Best Bets
Heat (+2.5)
Mavericks ML (-105)
Remaining Games
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 234.5)
LeBron James is not expected to play tonight, and the market has jumped all over Milwaukee. The Bucks are now 9.5-point favorites at some shops. This is obviously a massive price for the home team, but it is in good form. Milwaukee is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games. Khris Middleton is back in the fold and averaged 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy as well. Oh, and the Bucks will likely be looking for a bit of revenge after the Lakers took them out in Los Angeles on March 8 without James on the floor. Still, it’s too late to party with Milwaukee now. Instead, bettors should wait for an in-game opportunity to jump on the Bucks here.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1, 227) at New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Ingram is out for the foreseeable future with a knee injury suffered in the loss to Orlando, and that absence is what is keeping me away from backing New Orleans here. The market is in though, and this is starting to approach PK at multiple shops. The Pelicans have the size to bother the Thunder, something we have seen disrupt their success. Oklahoma City has also seen its production dip recently – 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games – due in large part to a massive market rating. This is another good example, as they are favored on the road against a similarly rated opponent. Still, with no Ingram and the team playing its fourth game in six days I cannot back the home team tonight.
