NBA Best Bets for Sunday, May 12th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 218.5)
The betting market got too high on Indiana for Game 3 on Friday night, and it was burned. The Pacers covered the first quarter, but failed to cover the first half and full-game spreads, both of which were extremely high. We have seen an adjustment for the contest today. Not only did the market open 5.5 but the initial movement has been toward New York. Bettors must decide if the adjustment is enough – for either side – and act accordingly.
Despite Jalen Brunson struggling with efficiency – he was 10-of-26 from the floor – the Knicks led by as many as nine points in the fourth quarter and were tied in clutch time. The Pacers continue to struggle on defense – New York posted a 116.5 offensive rating and a 57.0% effective field goal percentage – and that is not a great area to struggle in when asked to win by margin.
I am in agreement with the market here. Indiana has shown no signs of being able to hold a team down enough to win by a margin like this. New York had its worst offensive game of the series and still covered and had a chance to win the final seconds. The fact that Brunson does not even make an appearance on the injury report is a positive sign as well. For the third straight game in this series I’ll back the Knicks.
Best Bet: Knicks (+5.5)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-2.5, 203.5)
The three days off between Game 2 and Game 3 seemed to do wonders for Murray’s calf. He dropped 24 points on 11-of-21 shooting from the floor and was noticeably more springy on the floor. Murray went after mismatches and hit plenty of his patented step-back jumpers in an aggressive showing. Nikola Jokic showed up as well with 24 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists.
Those two are obviously going to be integral to the Nuggets’ success, but so too will be the way this game is called. Minnesota did not get to play with the same physical tenacity it did in the first two games of this series on Friday night.
The Timberwolves were in the bonus early in the first quarter, Jaden McDaniels was called for his third foul with 9:49 left in the second quarter and the game saw the most foul calls of the series overall. How the game will be called tonight is going to impact the way Minnesota plays – Scott Foster is the crew chief tonight – but officiating is hardly the reason why the Timberwolves lost.
Minnesota managed just 0.951 points per possession in non-garbage time on Friday night. Their offensive rating in halfcourt sets (82.7) was abysmal. Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander Walker, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid combined to go 2-of-11 (18.2%) from beyond the arc. After incredibly efficient performances in transition off live rebounds in the first two games the Timberwolves averaged just 0.6 points per play in transition on Friday night.
The betting market bought back on Denver in a big way on Friday, something that isn’t surprising given the situation. Today, we’re seeing some mild support for Minnesota on the screen. Most spots are now -3 and Circa is juiced to the favorite side.
I’m an ardent Timberwolves supporter in this series, and my view is biased considering how high I am on this team. I believe the market is getting this right in supporting the favorite, but given how tight the spread is there is likely going to be a better number available once the game tips-off.
2023-2024 Record: 122-125-3 | Units: -12.7
