NBA Best Bets for Sunday, May 19th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-3.5, 209.5)
The initial market move went toward Indiana when this line opened, but following news that both Josh Hart and OG Anunoby could play we saw the line bounce back toward New York.
As I am writing this, Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that both are on track to play. That will obviously help the Knicks, but we do not know how healthy they really are. Both are coming back from soft tissue injuries, and will likely be asked to carry large workloads if they play. Can bettors trust either will be effective?
The total is a fascinating story as well.
We have seen this number bounce back and forth from as low as 207.5 to as high as 209.5 since it opened. The market has settled at 208.5 as of my writing, but we still have a few hours left until tip-off.
This will be a true test of those who blindly bet Game 7 totals under.
The average closing total in this series has been 218.5 and we are split at 3-3 when it comes to the result. All six games would have gone over this current total by a decent margin as well. The pace could slow down, as it tends to in these contests, but neither team has played well defensively.
Indiana comes into this game with a 119.4 defensive rating. New York has allowed 120.9 points per 100 possessions. Theoretically, the addition of Anunoby should improve the Knicks’ defense. Once again though, we have no idea how effective he will be on a hamstring that caused him to miss multiple playoff games.
Frankly, there are too many unknown factors here to feel really comfortable to dive in pre-flop. Bettors could pick off -3 and go into the contest with a half-point of closing line value, but that might not be worth it considering the outside factors.
Instead, bettors might want to wait until the game begins, assess both Hart and Anunoby and attack the in-game line after making an observation on their effectiveness.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-4, 201.5)
DraftKings and some faraway spots opened Denver -4 on Thursday night after Minnesota’s romp. The initial move at the shops that opened early was up to -5 which is where it sat for the next two days. As of this morning, we’re seeing some Timberwolves support that has caused a juiced 4.5 to appear at a few shops.
We have also seen the usual move on the total that we see when it comes to a Game 7. DraftKings opened the number 201.5 while other shops’ initial number was 199.5. Those who shape the market generally come in and bet the opening number under almost every time, and we got that with this game. The consensus number as of this morning is 198 with one shop at 197.5 which is probably a sign it is looking for money on the over.
In yesterday’s article I touched on the total for Oklahoma City and Dallas. The series had skewed under and the market was betting Game 6 as such, but there were indicators – an above average pace in the series and shooting regression – that a higher scoring game was on the horizon. There are not many indicators for this game tonight.
Denver and Minnesota have been very consistent in terms of pace. These games have averaged about 92.25 possessions per game. The three blowouts in the series have made the overall pace tough to judge, but that pace rating is generally slow. It would not be a surprise if we get 90 or fewer possessions for both teams.
We can also get a more accurate read when looking at each team’s halfcourt frequency in this series. Denver has played 84.0% of its possessions this series against a set defense, according to Cleaning The Glass. Minnesota is moving slightly quicker with an 81.3% halfcourt frequency. For context, the most halfcourt oriented team in the regular season was Charlotte at 81.7%.
It’s hard to recommend under at this point of the number’s life. The market has made its opinion known, and bettors are getting no value on the number.
On the floor, it will be interesting to see if the Timberwolves continue with their Game 6 strategy of doubling Nikola Jokic.
Everytime Jokic touched the ball he saw a second defender without fail on Thursday night. The simplistic way to describe that strategy is that it gets the ball out of Jokic’s hands, and makes others beat you. But, that doesn’t do Minnesota’s strategy justice.
The Timberwolves were much more tenacious on Thursday night. Not only did they send two at Jokic when he touched it in the post, but their rotations were spot on. Guys were flowing to their assignment when the double was sent before Jokic even caught the ball in the post. That intensity will need to remain in place if Minnesota is going to make it to the Western Conference Finals.
If Denver is going to avoid elimination, the others need to be better. Specifically, Jamal Murray.
On Thursday I discussed at length the possibility of the Timberwolves going to outright double-teams on Jokic. As a result, I made a bet on Murray to go over his point total prop that evening of 19.5, his lowest of the postseason.
Murray got the volume expected – he took 18 shots – but he had just four buckets and 10 points in 33 minutes. For the series, Murray is averaging 15.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 37.6% shooting. He’s attempted just seven free throws. Murray is now reportedly dealing with an elbow injury as well. That is very troubling.
Despite all of these issues, Murray is a candidate to go over his prop once again today.
He is back in the friendly confines of Ball Arena. Minnesota will likely go back to doubling Jokic in the post, at least early on. If that is the case, Murray will have ample opportunity to go over 19.5 points tonight. He just has to hit the shots. One would also think rotations tighten in a Game 7 and Murray could see even more time on the floor, especially after logging only 33 minutes on Thursday.
So, what’s the bet to make? Full disclosure, I have a position on both Denver and Minnesota here, so I will not be taking a side. The Timberwolves winning lead to a potentially more lucrative outcome, so I will be rooting for them to pull this off tonight.
Instead, let’s look at that player prop market, but instead of Murray we can look at Jokic.
Minnesota should come out with the same strategy of doubling Jokic in the post once more. It worked, so there is no need to come off of it. That would mean there is opportunity for Jokic to effect the game as a passer.
In the loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday, Jokic had 15 potential assists, according to the NBA tracking data. He finished with only two assists because of poor shooting by the role players around him. Jokic also amassed such a large number of potential assists in 36 minutes, a series-low in minutes played.
In a Game 7 Jokic should see an increase in minutes, and if the doubles come as expected he should have the opportunity to pile up assists passing out of the post. He is already an effective passer who averaged 14.6 assist opportunities per game before Minnesota changed its strategy. Now with an expected larger workload and the potential of facing double-teams regularly he will have the chance to surpass this number.
Best Bet: Jokic OV 8.5 AST (-125)
Record: 122-130-3 | Units: -17.78
