NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, May 22nd
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5, 205.5)
The opening line for this game ranged from 3.5 to 4.5 depending on where you look. The shops that opened at -3.5 moved to -4 quickly and those that opened -4.5 lost the hook. As of this morning, the consensus line is a juiced -4 in favor of Minnesota.
Where the line ultimately ends up is a mystery, but I would guess we close at 4.5 consensus tonight. The public has yet to really enter the fray. The allure of a home team that just ousted the defending champion at a reasonable number will probably be an attractive side.
The more fascinating aspect of this game is the total.
This number slowly moved north from 205.5 when it opened on Sunday all the way to 208 at a few shops. It was surprising to see the market’s initial support for the over, but the buyback has begun and 206.5 is the predominant number on the screen.
Let’s start with the factor everyone loves to discuss when talking about totals: pace.
Both Minnesota and Dallas are below average teams when it comes to pace in the postseason. The Mavericks have averaged 93.38 possessions per game, and the Timberwolves are at 93.00 per contest. Both are nearly identical in terms of halfcourt frequency. Dallas is the more halfcourt oriented team at 81.3% of possessions. Minnesota is at 80.8% for the postseason.
The pace for this series should be slow, but the real factor that influences the scoring in this series will be the defense for both.
Dallas’ turnaround on defense since the trade deadline has been well-documented. In this postseason it has allowed just 110.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. As a set defense – halfcourt settings – the Mavericks have allowed just 92.8 points per 100 plays. That is third-best among playoff teams.
Where they really thrive is inside.
Dallas has allowed just 42.0 points in the paint per game this postseason. Opponents are taking just 30.0% of their attempts at the rim against the Mavericks and shooting just 57.3%. Anthony Edwards – who took 31% of his shot attempts inside four feet and shot 69.1% in the regular season – will have to navigate the big bodies along the interior.
On the other end, the Timberwolves have the defenders to match up with the Mavericks. Jaden McDaniels and Edwards are elite wing defenders. Those two can feel comfortable in one-on-one situations against either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. That should translate to staying at home on role players like P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. in this series.
In summary, I believe the market is right in getting this back down to the opening total, and I believe the under is the play. Dallas will look to hunt mismatches against a team which presents very few. Minnesota – a streaky offensive team – could have trouble with the defense that their opponent plays inside.
Best Bet: UNDER 207.5
2023-2024 Record: 123-130-3 (-18.78u)
